Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 12/10/2023 at 01:53, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"Does make logical sense as we'll see a re emerging direction of the MJO between Africa and the Pacific 

I'm eagerly awaiting the approach into Halloween  be looking particularly toward the patterns getting retrogressive in nature with scope for further blocking which looks to have the opportunities of origin towards Scandinavia, should we have the elongation of troughing also retrogressive across the UK toward the Atlantic with enough cold air come week one of November I can forsee business in this thread "

Very cool to look back at how the November into December 2010 got underway I don't think anyone has actually studied the main factors back 13 years ago with Rossby Waves not being as widely understood certainly I was still in the beginning into my passion filled meteorological journey

Starting with the MJO which was quite akin to our situation now with Oct being similar within the Pacific, and alternate Pacific / West Hemisphere and Africa during November 

 

Looking at the pattern does seem there was at least an initial significant RWB which started the developing trend for the Italian cyclonic conditions 

With 2010 being a Ninà the Atmospheric state would be somewhat different noteably in the Pacific though we definitely are watching a similar route to the aforementioned exciting outputs.

Let's see the signal for the MJO phases 7 & 8 through October via JMA

• Active West Pacific signals [super typhoon Bolaven]
• Californian >> Mexican cyclonic pattern. Major Hurricane Lidia plus Tropical Storm Max. Also the potential next Rossby Wave via Bolaven into new California Cyclonic conditions 
• Build of pressure through the UK and Scandinavia which transpires as the Rossby Wave within Atlantic continues its progression further East

'be looking particularly toward the patterns getting retrogressive in nature with scope for further blocking which looks to have the opportunities of origin towards Scandinavia"

should we have the elongation of troughing also retrogressive across the UK toward the Atlantic with enough cold air come week one of November I can forsee business in this thread "

JMA with phase 8 

• Retrogression underway via Scandi --- Greenland
• Italian Cyclone
• Troughing through southern US ie GOM
• Deep Russian Troughing

My goodness me that is literal perfection 

Evolution from 2018

 

Output upcoming 

Remember the wording I made previously 'should we have the elongation of troughing also retrogressive across the UK toward the Atlantic with enough cold air'

Just to reiterate incase anyone tries to imply that I called for a super early Beast that's not correct HOWEVER the meteorological dynamics involved are already shaping up as classic as can get for the run in to Halloween to provide lots of meteorological tricks and potential treats  

mother nature be like 

 

 

On 13/10/2023 at 21:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Now we're at the stage where the evolutions via phases 6 through 8 are coming to the forefront paired with the current PNA still being highly positive more info coming below with that.

How does the easterly set up then

As I discussed prior our Atmospheric river low doesn't fully develop as it is acting as a boost of energy to the deepening cyclone through Scandinavia.

By late Sunday there is an initial cyclone which moves into northern Spain and Portugal 

And our upstream ridge begins to enter UK

 

Come Later Monday through Tues the 1st cyclone centres in Spain and Portugal which nudges and centres the high over the UK

As midweek comes this is the most important part of the Wave Breal

The energy separation acts in 2 significant areas 

1. BOOST INTO THE DEVELOPMENTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR SCANDINAVIA 
2. FORCES A NEW CYCLONIC ZONE FOR PORTUGAL AND SPAIN

at similar timing when the heights raise through Scandinavia on the upstream this triggers the new Cyclone probably near Latvia and Lithuania 

This gives us our new Rossby Wave setup as we enter next weekend with the dual cut off lows and increased pressure over Scandi

Some model differences regarding the upstream low however it's probably temporary within that region.

Loving this as we're being directed to the dominating synoptic I believe ️🌨 for Winter 2023 --- 2024

An interesting signal for very end of Oct toward start of November certainly akin to phase 6 with that continually low heights over Maritimes and easy to invisige the troughing on a Northeast SW trajectory through Scandi possibly into UK

 

'Now watch as the MJO begins to traverse into the Pacific. Rainfall anomalies increase which allows a track to begin and orientation curves northeastwards to Alaska with time 

We will see a gradual change from the trough through Alaska into a elongating high which has a great shot of being connected with our Scandi>Greenland High, this has brought interesting potential for an enhanced warming stratospheric zone and early signal to be on lookout with regards to split SPV opportunities into at least  week 1 November possibly extending beyond that.

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 17/10/2023 at 17:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

"The PNA will be having major say in the evolution of 500hpa setups progressing through October"

Indeed. Fast forwarding to Oct 24th we really see this switching from positive to negative phases as the Alaska trough flips to an elongating high as discussed previously this will connect with our Scandinavia / Northeast blocking and the opposites also occur as the United States west coast high pressure shifting to a trough and finally a bit of respite for the North East US toward the maritimes with the trough switches into a building high which carries the exact orientation as the previous trough from the Gulf of Mexico

Our trough will also connect energetically to the west coast trough at least briefly 

Goes in line really superb as a blending of the PNA NAO and MJO

Did have me questioning when the phase 1 setup would start cropping into play 

 

This all begins the process linking various factors from now 

First step is to get a cut off low moving over the west USA high

As bolaven enters stage left our cut off low begins to strengthen and become elongated similar to the Bolaven influence within the Pacific troughing which also boosts and increases the Alaskan high pressure 

Lovely to note also as the MJO bounces between the Western hemisphere and Pacific basins which allows the New TS - Hurricanes which play a huge role within the evolution 

The hurricane yet again on that Baja route creates the bonding of energy with the switching to western trough 

High pushing East. The MDR system > next Potential hurricane might start as a bit of problems around Turks and Caicos island then feeds its energy into the lows in the North Atlantic which are flowing into the UK and Atlantic Wave Breaking

Not surprised in the slightest seeing rainfall concerns across the UK, these are all characteristics through the PNA switching, Having the slow pace across phases 8 and 1 which is basically the algorithm for battleground setup and pair that with essentially a constant feed into Rossby Wave Breaks its not surprising because these cyclonic developments cannot maneuver further east therefore the break process is sat within Britain for longer periods

Also not forgetting into Europe as downstream cyclonic conditions continue to be prone for cut off cyclones and excess rain events ie Portugal with Babet

We experienced very similar dynamical evolution in 2021

Europe experienced unprecedented hot and wet extremes in the early summer of 2021

Extremes resulted from recurrent blocking and wave breaking caused by a persistent meridionally amplified flow over the Atlantic

Three extratropical transitions of hurricanes in close succession were critical in repeatedly amplifying the flow

Plain Language Summary

In the early summer of 2021, Europe experienced widespread weather extremes, including record-breaking floods in Germany and prolonged heatwaves in the Baltic. These extremes resulted from a complex and particularly persistent atmospheric circulation over Europe and the North Atlantic. The interaction of three closely spaced tropical cyclones with the mid-latitude circulation led to repeated amplification of the circulation, resulting in frequent wave breaking and blocking episodes that caused the weather extremes. Understanding what led to this unusual season has important implications for current and future climate risks, and is a first step toward improving sub-seasonal forecast models to better capture such events.

'JMA with phase 8 

Retrogression underway via Scandi --- Greenland

Italian Cyclone

Troughing through southern US ie GOM

Deep Russian Troughing'

There is the Italian Cyclone signals coming to reality pairing with the drier conditions along the retrogressing Scandinavia Greenland block

 

From Friday through Tuesday this is the first phase of impacts 

SCOTLAND AND NORTHEASTERN ENGLAND 

️EXTREME Impacts 

IRELAND Severe Impacts ---️EXTREME Impacts

WALES AND REST OF ENGLAND 

Severe Impacts

PORTUGAL, FRANCE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN THROUGH INTO SWITZERLAND ITALY CROATIA

️EXTREME Impacts 

SPAIN 

Severe Impacts

There is a shot for a snowstorm to occur with the energy separation of the northern section of the low in Europe as I covered, GFS being most keen ATM

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Absolutely mental 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I have no words at this point 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 26/10/2023 at 21:18, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I posted the following September 19th 

What could unfold as we go into October?

These are the biggest development dynamical situations I'd be expectant to be occuring. Hazarding a date keep eyes around later of October Week 2 sometime around 10th - 13th

Elongation of European Heights start a gradual movement evolving to Scandinavia---Greenland 

New trough emerging close by most probably a smidge to the East then drifting to the UK 

I'm noticing that trend of low pressures through the United States trends show that eastern coastal Noreaster style as a possible setup

And the following 500hpa animation on 8th of October 

 

New 500hpa sequences following that period which go excellent to my thoughts back in September 

 

'Active West Pacific signals [super typhoon Bolaven]

Californian >> Mexican cyclonic pattern. Major Hurricane Lidia plus Tropical Storm Max. Also the potential next Rossby Wave via Bolaven into new California Cyclonic conditions 

Build of pressure through the UK and Scandinavia which transpires as the Rossby Wave within Atlantic continues its progression further East'

Nothing short of spectacular the manner in which this has really energized the setup pretty much globally 

Using the above JMA phase 7 expectant setups it even gave good indication on the -PNA east American high plus the dual zones over on the western end more on this in a minute 

Really stunning showcase of how a positive PNA swaps to that of a negative phase

"an upper trough trying to align on a negative tilt which might see a severe weather event into the Midwest and west central America as that has the energy from Norma which did indeed move into Baja'

Focusing more at the California Baja >> Mexican troughing this really kicked into life from phase 6 but in particular 7 and 8 we've seen Lidia Max Norma and Otis within like 2 weeks.

Crazy.

Next focus is with the separate trough swinging through the Northwest and Canada the recorded temp differences from AVG are truly incredible already with upto and over 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE

 

 

As the PNA rises this will coincide with these values moving east southeastwards with nearly all of America below average and decently at that, I expect a good number of further minimum temperatures will be at and setting new records particularly in traditional warmer states such as Texas and along the Gulf. Might be some high temp records doing the same within that -PNA high initially however the minimum values really are the main news.

A rare pattern by the very beginning of November in regards to a legit cut off Greenland High, a VERY rare beast bringing back the 09/10 vibes. Note the separation of energy has occurred as our block from Scandi has split with the formation further east connecting through Alaska and the Pacific Northwest with the rest over Greenland as discussed and something I mentioned on October 8th

'I'm eagerly awaiting the approach into Halloween  be looking particularly toward the patterns getting retrogressive in nature with scope for further blocking which looks to have the opportunities of origin towards Scandinavia'

Nice viewing as the composites are starting to show in alignment to the continuing phase 8-1 snailpace MJO movement 

We'll have to keep very alert for week 1 November of the forming CAG with very early signals this has possible connections for the PNA moving once again to positive territory, Florida maybe Gulf states need to be mindful with formation currently signalled by November 4th

This lead up to Guy Fawkes gives another date for cyclone development for us also around 2nd - 6th 

 

On 29/10/2023 at 16:22, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

'We'll have to keep very alert for week 1 November of the forming CAG with very early signals this has possible connections for the PNA moving once again to positive territory, Florida maybe Gulf states need to be mindful with formation currently signalled by November 4th

This lead up to Guy Fawkes gives another date for cyclone development for us also around 2nd - 6th'

'We have two dates to really focus in on which are 27th October and 29th October I expect Sunday 29th will have greater impacts for multiple reasons however Friday shouldn't be completely dismissed.'

Very pleased with development fitting really good with the above

I can say with a high degree of certainty there are 2 dates with deep cyclones which will have significant impact for the UK and France particularly Northern France 

1. November 2nd
2. November 4th

Looking in detail how each day develops downstream

The deep cyclonic conditions moving across on the 2nd lies with the snowstorm currently impacting Colorado

 

Even as it exits toward Long Island it already contains an energising Jet streak along its southern flank, same timing sees the wave break I discussed previously in regards to Tammy which splits some energy and generates a new low a few miles to its east, importance within a new low which sets up close to Florida plus the next surge of tropical energy into the far East Pacific 

Ive posted the patterns during phases 8 and 1 during November however this is superb as the trough location ties really great

Halloween ^^^

Note there is an active cyclonic activity through the Labrador Sea which inputs towards our cyclone on November 2nd however less of a contributor than the snowstorm.

More incredible stuff happens on Late Halloween eve and especially November 1st which will see the RARE cut off Greenland High as mentioned above, 

So come Halloween we've the Snowstorm moving into the Atlantic, a high energy upper trough swinging from Canada into the Great Lakes creating the first big Lake Effect event (Tug Hill doing nice from this one i expect) there plus the Labrador Sea cyclone feeds enough energy and forms a cyclone west of Ireland

We begin seeing the Florida low better by then also and these two events will be the key for the cyclogenisis for us into November 4th

November 2nd

Snowstorm undergoing rapid deep cyclogenisis and becomes the main cyclone as the energy merge occurs to the smaller cyclonic centre west of Ireland. Pretty rapid deepening involved with our far East Pacific system also. Floridian trough pairing to the Great Lake upper trough. Beginning development showing into our CAG zone

November 4th

• CAG action kicks into life
• New cyclone crossing a similar path and strong cyclogenisis once more

Entire sequence of activities

 

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 26/10/2023 at 21:18, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

As the PNA rises this will coincide with these values moving east southeastwards with nearly all of America below average and decently at that, I expect a good number of further minimum temperatures will be at and setting new records particularly in traditional warmer states such as Texas and along the Gulf. Might be some high temp records doing the same within that -PNA high initially however the minimum values really are the main news.

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 31/10/2023 at 20:22, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

So let's take a look after the stormy spell from the 2nd >>  6th what can be expected after? 

As can be noted above there has been the growing trend for the arch of blocking with output suggesting at least 2 phases with initial attempting by the 7th with cut off low #1, then what is coming in as a stronger go come around Nofember 10th - 11th again cut off low.

 

GEPS really keen on the strengthening with the Atlantic block again especially on attempt number 2

This is excellent for multiple reasons

It's always very exciting as the MJO phases transition into real life 500hpa setups

Using the JMA in November with phase 1 and connecting again into that GEPS chart

As discussed in prior posts these are including some of the most crucial areas through early November plus new patterns

Caribbean / CAG activities increasing which still needs VERY close eyes from the gulf and particularly Florida and Cuba

High builds through the far Southwest USA toward California 

Increasing precip ATMOSPHERIC RIVER(S)? Pacific Northwest 

Very important Arch of Blocking connects from Atlantic up across Greenland plus upstream east of Scandinavia 

Just found this which again is superb and indeed goes perfect  

 

Looking at the actual outputs on the JMA bearing in mind it's at the lower scale of resolution i like what it's showing 

As drawn in the MJO pattern above there will be an opportunity of tapping into a better pool of 850s conducive for wintry weather which should be located to the Northeast roughly

No better time to repost these

I've just seen the part saying ScBL which is Scandinavia Block 3 weeks beforehand ie the setup we've had for a number of weeks now 

We will be looking at the setup labelled c3-2

However the patterns which have occurred throughout October do equate to a great blend of nigh on all of the precursor setups

 

Setting our pieces into place at a relaxing pace ..

 

On 04/11/2023 at 16:42, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

So what new developments have and are occuring following on to my previous post?

 

Beginning at the here and now there are a few key zones as two main wave breaks occur

One sees a relatively weak but still very much present cut off low towards Baja this happens as our deep cyclone is present in Britain and the Floridian trough as mentioned 

By midweek we have the UK trough begin a slow weakening phase, this happens because there needs to be some form of activity toward Africa which ties to the MJO path recently. As a rossby wave begins to break in connection with our deep cyclone this creates a separation of energies and resultant cut off low heading into Morocco and the Western Sahara, We also see the trough and connecting Atmospheric river setup shift southwards through the western coastal America and a strengthening into cyclonic developments south of Greenland 

Pretty important synoptic evolutions as we get toward next weekend as we see new signs that the High in the southern end of the Atlantic starts a route into Southwest >>> Northeast alignment via further wave breaks now most probably through Scandinavia and further Northeast which trends show links to a strong Siberian High, Further downstream seems highly likely the west coast trough developments lead into new wave breaking with the Californian cut off low trend yet again showing. GEM somewhat slower however still aligning good

I see the PNA switching on both sides of positive and negative phases however this corresponding to that of a negative 

As I discussed its all occuring at a relaxing pace from my perspective and further nice linkage given phases 8 and 1 continue being prominent

Still a major focal area needs to be developments via the Central American Gyre and the trough signal across the Gulf States which you can see clearly in the above 

GFS 6z quite close to what I'd be expectant of evolving just a matter of timing really.

 

WPC's Short Range Public Discussion

WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Let's do an in depth dive into this extraordinary event of Late November 2023 into week 1 of December

This is a superb match with the Negative North Atlantic Oscillation from NOAA in which the examples they provide are during multiple January -NAO setups.

Switzerland

This pattern has given temperatures which are on a par with February 2021 which is another famous cold episode.

 

 

Germany

Munich with one of the biggest snowfalls overall in the last 122 years and most of these occuring during the heart of winter which makes this even more impressive 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom and Ireland 

Again this incredible event has given the coldest weather since the most top tier historic events such as Late November and December 2010, And Both recent Beast From The East Events of February- March 2018 and February 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Northeast America

France

 

Denmark

 

Scandinavia and Baltics

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 03/12/2023 at 19:41, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

So as we move into our second week of this well anticipated cold evolution I'll look at the setup thus far and travel through the next couple of weeks

 

Linking the means from the 23rd into observed 500hpa for the previous 7 days 

 

Special accuracy I particularly like the extra strong Scandi baltic trough which the JMA depicts along with the blocking via phase 8 feeding into Dec

I'm very happy with my overall roundup from the 23rd and observed conditions thus far 

'focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect

CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. '

And the snowy conditions into UK at a timeframe I had generally expected for an opportunity of such weather 

"Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK"

We have the phase 1 and 2 setups beginning from this week 

 

Further scope for another snowy system into the Northeast of America 

Elongation of the Atlantic trough separates with one trough into the UK and the positive PNA style trough into the northeast of US, phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High

"Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean

Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle '

 

Hats off to the CFS as it held firm keeping increased amplitude as we are progressing toward the maritimes and the other models now following suit

 

Towards mid December we begin to have the influencing phase 3 

 

Phases 3 through 4 leads to patterns which drive above average temperature scenarios again Linking with the negative PNA 

 

Still acts as further impact on the strat vortex 

 

 

On 05/12/2023 at 18:43, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I've posted a detailed look at the incredible event of the previous 11 days 🌨🌨️️

 

Following onto the prior posts in this thread we continue to watch as classic feedback from phases 2 through 4 emerge 

Multiple patterns unfolding here.

Elongation of high heights north of Hawaii, Extending trough from Alaska down the west coast which leads to development of cut off low(s) from California and especially Mexico, Strengthening Block in the far north of America and particularly East Canada into Maritmes with the curved extension to the UK and Scandinavia. As phase 4 feeds in this brings high pressure into the UK from the Southwest with a trough to the east 

 

 

Feedback of progress into a + NAO

Thought I'd do a bit of a different view and show the Great representation and correspondence of surface temps in association with the ongoing MJO cycle in various regions

I have noted there have been cold temperatures at / near record levels in Brazil which can be noted on the above.

Upcoming pattern with Above avg temps particularly with the Canadain -- Maritime blocking as I've covered of late and a split between central warmth and east cold west cold in Australia 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 08/12/2023 at 02:42, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Thought I'd do a bit of a different view and show the Great representation and correspondence of surface temps in association with the ongoing MJO cycle in various regions

I have noted there have been cold temperatures at / near record levels in Brazil which can be noted on the above.

Upcoming pattern with Above avg temps particularly with the Canadain -- Maritime blocking as I've covered of late and a split between central warmth and east cold west cold in Australia 

Literal perfect representation

From my post on December 3rd 

'phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High"

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looking at the situation across Africa particularly Northwest North and Northeast regions, a low which began in SE England will transition into a cut off low via Rossby Wave Breaking and will drift Southwest into Africa. This is occuring via feedbacks of phase 3 of the MJO which can give below average surface temps across these African regions which matches very good to these upcoming dynamics

New trend coming into play on the models with scope of a second wave break from frontal energy coming from the Atlantic which extends Northeast through the UK with signs for a secondary cut off low development through Spain which also slides into these African regions 

 

Contradictory to the Christmas lyrics this will provide opportunity for some of the precip to be falling as snow in parts of Morocco, Northern Alergia and Tunisia this Christmas

Could be some flooding rains with the first wave breaking low over Tunisia in particular which might extend toward the Libyan coastlines

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

On 20/12/2023 at 18:39, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Very detailed post incoming

My thinking holds steady with the pattern evolutions over the Christmas and heading toward the New year period, the broadscale setup is that of a developing Scandinavian - Baltic trough, this setup was always probable into week 4 of December 

 

perfect timing with your post @Jo Farrow thanks  

Looking solely into the dynamical situations for Christmas itself as mentioned in my posts above / recently the highest probalistic outcomes of below average surface temps were always best for northern UK 

With a prominent section of the Jet crossing the UK its easy to understand the milder trends particularly on the southern flank 

Also easy seeing why the flow will change orientation from a Northwest flow to that of more Westerly influence which again you'd not typically connect with prolonged below avg weather.

850hpa anoms

Surface temperatures anomalies 

Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air

 

 

For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature.

Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there.

 

This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year

In my post from 7th December I spoke of the re emerging trend of a classic El Ninò Style Jet, this paired with the PNA being positive .. more on that in a min. Has already given a record breaking storm on that route via the Gulf into the Northeast 

 

 

Looking back at what I discussed from December 5th 

Excellent representation with the ongoing and in parts record strength block particularly through the UK, North Atlantic and Maritimes--> Canada

 

 

also we now have our cut off low development through California into Mexico 

 

 

 

 

The PNA has strengthed within the + phase and this brings a new storm threat in about a weeks time 

I'm expectant of a shift from the deep cold which has and is currently residing across Asia, East Asia particularly as high pressure moves across Korea and Japan through Christmas this switches towards above average temperature scenarios 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Temperature in Seoul plunges to -12.4°C as cold snap grips South Korea

WWW.CHANNELNEWSASIA.COM

---

The cold weather has affected about 100 flights - most of them to and from Jeju Island.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 02/01/2024 at 14:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

First off I'd like to wish you all a happy new year

Leading onto my prior post(s)

 

This week is the beginning of the expected 500hpa shifts with a Rossby Wave Break which takes a low from the UK down into Italy and begins the switch toward what is known as a 'Southerly tracking Jet' 

I've always remained focused into January week 2 for the shift to a colder pattern, I expect the first major talking point is the ongoing negative PNA coming into the 500hpa pattern 

This causes a trough to take shape over the Western US which looks like having an opportunity to threaten cold temperature records and with the low pressure setting up I wouldn't be surprised for significant snow in this region 

For the UK as the -PNA feedback paired to the MJO feedback covered in my previous post develops this sees high pressure and blocking being the main influence at least for a time more on that below, all the relevant 500hpa composites are covered in my prior post however using the JMA MJO evolution covers it / simplifies it rather well for learners etc

Starting with the Southerly tracking Jet & trough plus the build in heights through and North of the UK

So with the -PNA and MJO feedback being at the forefront we see the below average temperatures begin as we go into January week 2

With this stage of proceedings dominated by higher pressure this will bring drier than average conditions and you'll also be able to watch the Jet becoming directed increasingly further south as discussed.

With this being high pressure in control during this period this equates to 850hpa temps above average particularly closest to the highs centre ie North UK and to the North of the UK

Now lets dive into the MJO because it carries importance at various levels. This cycle across the Indian Ocean is likely THE one which begins and coincides with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event which is still gradually weakening however now begins to do so in a more dramatic fashion compared to the slowish weakening from October

 

Not shocking to be seeing some further interfering into the MJO's progress over the IO in particular the CFS expecting that more so than the GEFS and GFS, This could have some impact with regard to an important evolution of the cyclonic developments across Canada into the Maritimes I'd still favour mid Jan but might be slightly later should we get the interference a la the CFS.

Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder

My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible. 

These 500hpa setups also once more continue being prominent in the precursors which have been most effective in leading to weaker Vortex and potential further stratospheric warming(s)

 

Wonderful showcase of El Ninò surface temperature patterns during winter on the go of late in America 

 

On 05/01/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Into the start of January week 2 which is Monday we'll have some supportive upper level ingredients giving a chance of snow streamer development on the southern end of the block across the UK and North Sea. This time period never had a focal point towards an abundance of wintry precipitation and snow as explained 

 

 

 

Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback which also gives a swathe of Australia Central also colder than average conditions 

At the moment we're looking at the latter stage of Jan week 2 MIDMONTH through about 5>6 days for the coldest surface and 850hpa temps 

 

19 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The snow streamer development will get going into early Monday Jan 8th as -8 850hpa temps move into Southeast England 

 

Come Monday Afternoon this snow streamer will begin to have increasing snowfall rates as a cold pool starts to form over Southeast England with 850hpa temperatures intensifying to -10

 

As this setup gradually moves westward this will have snow showers development further north & northwest of this streamer 

 

Upper dynamics further north northwest won't be as supporting for purely snow so precip here will see mixing including freezing rain.

 

By Tuesday and Weds a large swathe of the UK and Ireland have a good liklihood of having received at least a dusting, somewhat bigger amounts over higher terrain.

 

Here's charts to save particularly for members in the Southwest and South Southeast Ireland with a -10 850hpa cold pool

On track with this as the major focal points are the deep cold focused especially ocer the west and northwest of the states in association to the -PNA.

We're watching the feedback of recent MJO phases paired with the Ninò style jet as discussed in length on my recent posts, first a major storm by Tuesday 9th Jan into Wednesday 10th Jan with a blizzard on its North and Northwest flank and further flash flooding and severe weather potential (tornadic) on the Southern and Southeast flank

 

This is the 1st of Three systems during Jan week 2 with the next two being centred a tad further south again as the Ninò Jet adjusts

 

 

The 200mb velocity reflects this very nice

Again links with recent MJO phases this links with the PNA heading more into positive territory, door opens for a snowy system into Northeast America from roughly Jan 18th - 21st IMO ️

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Simply INCREDIBLE