Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[GlennP2]

Anyone on the East Yorks coast near Withernsea? Seems that there’s a lot of strikes showing around there as well as a few off the coast at Spurn?  Just seems to be a lot of flashes visible coming from that direction 

cheers Glenn

[mike57]

A major storm has passed just to our south, heading out into the North Sea south of Bridlington. Continuous lightning, around 20 flashes a minute for a good 20 minutes visible from here, and a constant distant rumbling

My guess is Hornsea got a direct hit.

Edited September 9, 2023 by mike57

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

some more stuff from earlier when it got dark, very active storms

 

 

 

 

[reef]

14 minutes ago, GlennP2 said:

Anyone on the East Yorks coast near Withernsea? Seems that there’s a lot of strikes showing around there as well as a few off the coast at Spurn?  Just seems to be a lot of flashes visible coming from that direction 

cheers Glenn

We're still getting frequent lightning to the north but there's nothing on the radar. Very odd indeed.

[MikeUpjohn]

Two new cells just forming between Crewe and Shrewsbury.

[Marcus_surfer]

Predictions on that batch to the southwest of England? Any chance they will progress in western parts?

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like that storm in the channel could be heading towards London way if it keeps it up and not die before reaching uk

[WeatherArc]

Selection of soundings from the 12z AROME, partially convinced tomorrow will have some of the most active and potentially severe storms the UK has seen for a while, relatively widespread as well with the storm development zone going from just south of Bristol to the Scottish Border.

The only issues I really see is the mid level lapse rates and  a small amount of CIN, however all models have storms developing by around 1.

Mainly down to nowcasting now though.

Soundings mostly taken from the area between Worcester and Sheffield ahead of the MCS. Just look at those hodographs! , not everyday you see that amount of windshear in the UK, especially when combined with 700+ j/kg sbcape. 3cape is above 50 for some of the soundings aswell, safe to say tomorrow will be a very interesting day Will defo chase if im free.

 

 

Latest UKV has storms developing across Wales and West Mids by around 1ish, with a large system in North Wales, storms then move North Eastwards across the country. This run showing a potentially nasty cell (supercell?) just south of Hull, close to Lincoln with the MCS moving across Liverpool and Newcastle. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like that storm in the channel could be heading towards London way if it keeps it up and not die before reaching uk

It does seem to be tracking that way, and if all the forecasts said it absolutely isn’t going to happen I would be getting rather excited right now

[TJS1998Tom]

Just annoyed that tomorrow looks to be a great chance for storms yet I'll be at work between 12pm and 6pm but do have a window where I could watch it from at least just not a great view, forecasts suggests storms for Monday potentially

[RobR]

11 minutes ago, MikeUpjohn said:

Two new cells just forming between Crewe and Shrewsbury.

There was some rumbles and a bit of lightning but it seems to have stopped and radar shows storm only a few miles away from here.

[Liam Burge]

2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like that storm in the channel could be heading towards London way if it keeps it up and not die before reaching uk

Idk what you're looking at but it's going the complete opposite way to impact London. Models have been showing this feature.

 

 

 

 

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Selection of soundings from the 12z AROME, partially convinced tomorrow will have some of the most active and potentially severe storms the UK has seen for a while, relatively widespread as well with the storm development zone going from just south of Bristol to the Scottish Border.

The only issues I really see is the mid level lapse rates and  a small amount of CIN, however all models have storms developing by around 1.

Mainly down to nowcasting now though.

Soundings mostly taken from the area between Worcester and Sheffield ahead of the MCS. Just look at those hodographs! , not everyday you see that amount of windshear in the UK, especially when combined with 700+ j/kg sbcape. 3cape is above 50 for some of the soundings aswell, safe to say tomorrow will be a very interesting day Will defo chase if im free.

 

 

Latest UKV has storms developing across Wales and West Mids by around 1ish, with a large system in North Wales, storms then move Eastwards across the country. This run showing a potentially nasty cell (supercell?) just south of Hull, close to Lincoln. 

That’s more like it from an IMBY perspective 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like that storm in the channel could be heading towards London way if it keeps it up and not die before reaching uk

sorry but they are tracking due north,...no way is London in with a shout

but it does look good in our neck of the woods tomorrow

as always,....radar and Sat watching is the order of the day.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yeah it's definitely tracking north. Plymouth might get a good show

[WeatherArc]

UKV looks decent for the south west, could have a few cells developing across Devon tomorrow morning

Edited September 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Zak M]

Bloody hell

[TJS1998Tom]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Idk what you're looking at but it's going the complete opposite way to impact London. Models have been showing this feature.

 

 

 

 

  Ah nvm then, I was just judging it based on the lightning track, looking at that reminds me of a storm years ago which wasnt in a forecast but 400 strikes a minute was tracked over Plymouth way, think it might've been May 2014 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

  Ah nvm then, I was just judging it based on the lightning track, looking at that reminds me of a storm years ago which wasnt in a forecast but 400 strikes a minute was tracked over Plymouth way, think it might've been May 2014 

I think this could be quite the prolific lightning producer if it manages to survive the trek across the channel. The humidity right now is insane, it literally feels like a sauna here in the south west.

 

One interesting thing to note, is that the whole system is about 50miles west of where it was forecast by the MetOffice

[SilverWolf]

Line from Truro-Exeter look like a good target soon… 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, SilverWolf said:

Line from Truro-Exeter look like a good target soon… 

Yep, then tracking North / North East.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

I think this could be quite the prolific lightning producer if it manages to survive the trek across the channel. The humidity right now is insane, it literally feels like a sauna here in the south west.

 

One interesting thing to note, is that the whole system is about 50miles west of where it was forecast by the MetOffice

I’m hating the word ‘west’ this evening

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m hating the word ‘west’ this evening

Haha! It's always the case.. either too far west or too far east, never exactly where we want it to be!

[camturbo]

9 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Haha! It's always the case.. either too far west or too far east, never exactly where we want it to be!

Least may see some distant flickering possibly

[SilverWolf]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Yep, then tracking North / North East.

Yeah possibly.. if it follows the 700hpa wind vectors (I’ve often used that as a ‘guide’ for direction of travel, but sometimes it’s way off!). If your in Bridgwater you’d be in for a good shout if so…interesting to see if it dies or builds as it comes inland.. building East and travelling NE would be splendid for me!