Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Chris.R]

It better not do a right turn I want it over me. To me to you lol

[andy989]

Beautiful sunset on the huge anvil from the Llandrindod Wells storm, 70miles from me. Now that’s darker I can see the lighting from it. I’m too far north west for it but Cheshire area might be in for it later as it travels north east 

 

[neil_b]

What’s the general direction of the mid-wales stuff?  Welsh Marches here just wondering if likely to see anything tonight

 

lol walk outside and there’s an insane lightning show to my SW and distant rumbles 

Edited September 10, 2023 by neil_b

[Aiden2012]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I hope not  I'm already knackered and if that was to reach here it would be about 1am .   Still part of me hopes it keeps going and matures into the mother of all UK storms! Lol

I hope it does after all the bloody disappointment today right in the middle of it hahahah 

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Hovering around a strike every second and a half with the new storm. Don't know about recent but UKV had this new storm forming late evening on some of its runs and travelled far. This one could go right into the night possibly.

Scratch that, over a strike a second now.

I really hope so

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Aiden2012 said:

I hope it does after all the bloody disappointment today right in the middle of it hahahah 

I really hope so

The mid Wales one?

Wonder where it tracks.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Hovering around a strike every second and a half with the new storm. Don't know about recent but UKV had this new storm forming late evening on some of its runs and travelled far. This one could go right into the night possibly.

Scratch that, over a strike a second now.

Blitzortung has it at 160 a minute with the storm at it's recent peak.

[LightningLover]

13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You could be in the central south

Or the far SE!

[Aiden2012]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

The mid Wales one?

Wonder where it tracks.

Hopefully through all of us that missed out today

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Hovering around a strike every second and a half with the new storm. Don't know about recent but UKV had this new storm forming late evening on some of its runs and travelled far. This one could go right into the night possibly.

Scratch that, over a strike a second now.

Are you on about that Welsh one?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Are you on about that Welsh one?

It should be moving into a fairly friendly environment. Apparently NW mids into NW England has CAPE available right past midnight but @Eagle Eyewill know more.

[Bristol Aviation]

Sat here in North Bristol and enjoying on the horizon the intra-cloud lightning from that wales cell! 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Are you on about that Welsh one?

Yes. Also, worked out the average minutely strike using all the UK and Ireland's storms in the past 2 hours. It's just under 250 a minute on average (30,000 strikes in the last 2 hours).

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

It should be moving into a fairly friendly environment. Apparently NW mids into NW England has CAPE available right past midnight but @Eagle Eyewill know more.

Roughly using the storms track is 1500+ J/KG of MUCAPE into the night hours. 1,300 ish J/KG of MUCAPE just south of where it could be around 1-2 am. sShould have enough Theta-W to be able to transition to elevated if it isn't already. Pretty much the same environment it's in now.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Row w]

Cluster of storms to the s/w, catching some awesome lightning. Can't hear thunder yet but hope I'm in for a direct hit 

[seabreeze86]

Constant lightning here now with some torrential rain 

[Aiden2012]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Roughly using the storms track is 1500+ J/KG of MUCAPE into the night hours. 1,300 ish J/KG of MUCAPE just south of where it could be around 1-2 am. sShould have enough Theta-W to be able to transition to elevated if it isn't already.

So it could track across the country. ?

[DIS1970]

Can see the flashes in the darkening sky from that storm to SW of here, probably to too far S for it hit here though.

[Metwatch]

Omg I can see lightning of the Wales storm a flash every few seconds. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Row w said:

Cluster of storms to the s/w, catching some awesome lightning. Can't hear thunder yet but hope I'm in for a direct hit 

Wow looks great. Seems to be elevated already.

[Row w]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Omg I can see lightning of the Wales storm a flash every few seconds. 

If its the one I'm looking at it looks a right beast of a storm.

[Marcus_surfer]

 Lightning North of Swansea a little earlier. Developed more as it pushed north. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

So it could track across the country. ?

Wouldn't be that surprised. The CAPE lingers for quite a while over us. Just depends how much has been used up already as that's modelled poorly typically.

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Wow looks great. Seems to be elevated already.

Good sign then. 

Only thing that could stop it is it becoming too slow and lags behind the moisture tongue leaving. At some point that will probably happen and it will turn into a very messy cluster. Couldn't tell you when that would happen though.

The storm is averaging just under 150 strikes a minute for the last 20 minutes. Even if it starts running out of steam, will be a while before people turn their cameras off.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Zak M]

Can see loads of flashes here from the Wales storm

[Row w]

Some more lightning, looks to be getting closer.

[Turquoise]

Very amusing seeing us in the North West hanging all out hopes on this storm maintaining it's track and intensity, its looking good so far though