Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Biggin]

Majorca about to get battered by the huge storm coming out from the main land

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, Biggin said:

Majorca about to get battered by the huge storm coming out from the main land

My mum's there. She said it missed 

[ChannelThunder]

I believe this is the area to watch on Satellite and eventually radar this evening: 

It's going to take until the early hours for that to crawl its way to the UK mainland. New Arome rolling out now...

[Southern Storm]

6 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I believe this is the area to watch on Satellite and eventually radar this evening: 

It's going to take until the early hours for that to crawl its way to the UK mainland. New Arome rolling out now...

Good stuff, the latest UKv is a peach for Sunday morning,  it'll probably be totally different on the next one of course 

BTW Is the Arome free to view?

Edited September 15, 2023 by Southern Storm

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Good stuff, the latest UKv is a peach for Sunday morning,  it'll probably be totally different on the next one of course 

BTW Is the Arome free to view?

Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms 

It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales. 

 

[Southern Storm]

2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms 

It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales. 

 

Thanks for that, added to bookmarks

 

3 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms 

It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales. 

 

Yeah I was thinking the same but beggars can't be choosy can they, if it's light then so be it, at least sunrise is later now, we only need a couple of hours swing in the timings and we may be in luck 

 

[TallPaul]

33 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I believe this is the area to watch on Satellite and eventually radar this evening: 

It's going to take until the early hours for that to crawl its way to the UK mainland. New Arome rolling out now...

Yep absolutely bang on the money.... and right on cue the radar is coming to life for northern bay of Biscay...

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms 

It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales. 

 

Looking at that wxchart...precious little for the south east as things stand...btw...sorry for sounding silly but what is radar feflectivity exactly and how does it differ to precipitation rate...thanks..

[Alderc 2.0]

Arome 12Z is a big messy mess! That’ll be now fun if that much drizzly turns up tomorrow.

[Marcus_surfer]

Hoping for morning thunderstorms on Sunday...that's our best chance here I think

[Metwatch]

Quite the active day across Iberia this afternoon. That instability heading north over the next 48 hours and eventually reaching the channel by Sunday.

Remains to be seen which exact areas see some juicy storms, but the south could be in for a chance potentially!

[TallPaul]

2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Quite the active day across Iberia this afternoon. That instability heading north over the next 48 hours and eventually reaching the channel by Sunday.

Remains to be seen which exact areas see some juicy storms, but the south could be in for a chance potentially!

Absolutely, as per 2 mins ago it's all eyes to the south...

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ 

A plume of moist Theta-E begins advecting into the south. It looks likely to bring with it a stream of showers, mainly into the SW overnight. Though not particularly heavy due to being elevated (well sort of a elevated and surface based mix) , they could produce some sparodic lightning.

 

There's weak MLCAPE but good buoyancy could help increase ECAPE for that sparodic lightning to occur. Fairly good DLS should help as well. Hail is unlikely, maybe very small hail is possible and some brief bursts of heavy rain .but 

 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Looking at that wxchart...precious little for the south east as things stand...btw...sorry for sounding silly but what is radar feflectivity exactly and how does it differ to precipitation rate...thanks..

Think of it like the model's version of how it 'thinks' the rain radar will look at a certain point in the future, i.e. blues as light rain, up to reds as torrential. That's probably the simplest way of explaining it. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Eagle Eye with what I think will be an accurate forecast yet again. Him and Nick F on here are excellent. Really missing Dan Holleys forecasts. Also Paul Sherman had excellent input. Does anyone know if he’s ok? Haven’t seen him on here for ages. 

Sunday is still a very mixed picture. Looks like a more evening, early part of the night event now, rather than a 1-4AM job. Quite a few runs showing something quite significant heading through NE France maybe Kent on early Monday morning. Still not nailed down whatsoever as to what we will actually see. The instability is certainly still showing however, which is the main thing.  

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Arome 12Z is a big messy mess! That’ll be now fun if that much drizzly turns up tomorrow.

I'm calling tomorrow a right off claggy mess Thanks to the French. You mark my words.

[A Face like Thunder]

Suggestion on the Beeb this evening that any heavy rain and thunder on Sunday will arrive in the SW and move north, with another dollop skirting Kent and heading away on Monday morning. 

[Harry]

Must admit I’m not as optimistic as I was based on the latest models - but by no means a right off 

[viking_smb]

11 hours ago, TallPaul said:

Ahhh... the old reverse psychology chestnut....,

naa just realistic 

[viking_smb]

10 hours ago, It's a Philcast said:

Ahhhh trainspotting.....I loved it myself standing out in all weathers underscoring class 37's, HST's and the like in my trainspotting booklet.....reminds me when I watched a triple header of 37s head up the lickey incline in the early 80s during a summer storm...my family called me nuts......no change there then!! If only i'd taken a camera to capture the Lightning at Lickey incline.....food for thought for a future storm ayyy??

3rd Railway buff on here, I model the western region 1967 westbury way so got westerns (all lima inc 1 resprayed to blue half yellow panel), class 41 warships x3 silverfox on lima chassis , normal warships (lima), hymeks mostly triang and 1 hornby), 2 class 22s silverfox on hornby 29 chassis plus steam (all my tender locos are tender driven), dmus (all lima), blue pullmans etc, plenty of milk traffic as well mixed rake mk1s etc, as layout is 4 tracked (hornby steel austria track) with branch line and milk depot, plus through station (my first set was in 1991 intercity 225), I dont have time to go spotting anymore due to work commitments etc as too busy on the water but my old haunt with dad and grandfather was the bridge next to cardiff canton diesel depot also cardiff central when i was younger, I love the manors and 43xxs though due to their bark 

Anyway back to weather, 

be interesting to see the forecasts tomorrow for sun. luckily i got nothing planned this weekend but working following weekend at cbyc as regatta on.

Edited September 15, 2023 by viking_smb

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Eagle Eye with what I think will be an accurate forecast yet again. Him and Nick F on here are excellent. Really missing Dan Holleys forecasts. Also Paul Sherman had excellent input. Does anyone know if he’s ok? Haven’t seen him on here for ages. 

Sunday is still a very mixed picture. Looks like a more evening, early part of the night event now, rather than a 1-4AM job. Quite a few runs showing something quite significant heading through NE France maybe Kent on early Monday morning. Still not nailed down whatsoever as to what we will actually see. The instability is certainly still showing however, which is the main thing.  

Can confirm Paul is doing good; I went chasing with him in Arizona last month! From spending time with him I think he's just given up with storms in his area, so that'll probably explain why he's not posted in a while. We saw some crackers over the pond though of course!

While I'm on the subject, I made a thread about that trip, including photos and a blog I wrote, over in the Storm Chase USA forum on here, if you or anyone else is interested! Such a great holiday

[Alderc 2.0]

Those showers over north western France are perfectly position to liven up and the die off mid channel. 

[viking_smb]

noticed tomorrow night on UkV is now far west of wales 

[The Tall Weatherman]

The ESSL going for quite a widespread 50% risk. Obviously it is no time to judge yet and high-res models will start to become useless in the next 24 hours. Anyways good luck to anyone wishing about getting a glimpse of a storm to finish off this poor season.

[ChannelThunder]

I've already thrown in the towel for this weekend. Once again it looked good 2 days ago on the models for tomorrow night, but now we're seemingly down to a band of rain at 9am on Sunday which will likely contain lightning in the channel, but die off as it comes in here.