October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[CryoraptorA303]

55 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Wet, but not out of the ordinary here in SW Wales, March was wetter as was last November and October 2019, with October 2021 coming close.   I think the depressions taking a more southerly track and also passing further east through the UK have led to more of the country being affected by the rain this autumn, and possibly quite an unusual rainfall distribution for Scotland and N England with maybe as much or more rain in the east than the west.  By comparison, Dec 2015 is by far the wettest month I've experienced in recent times whereas I think some eastern parts were fairly dry.

Ah yes, October 2019 was really wet. Some of the worst flooding I've ever seen in this area happened over the 2019/20 storm season. November was a bit drier I think, as was December, but January and February really kicked off with the rain again.

What's happening right now is the lows are being deflected northward as they pass over the UK, which leads to them delivering the goods to the east coast. Then the normal Fohn effect over the Highlands and Pennines that would more often see the east coast be much drier than the west happens in reverse, and western Scotland/northwest England has a drier October than usual, and the east coast gets what the west coast would normally get. March this year was much more typical for an autumnal, cyclonic month and the west coast got an absolute lashing, although a lot of that rain did make it to the east coast; as far as I can tell this March was the second-wettest in the SE&C region's record.

December 2015 is one of the wettest months ever recorded nationally. I think it was mostly the west coast and Scotland getting totally washed away, but it certainly wasn't a massively dry month here. I don't remember much more rainfall than usual but it was extremely dull and extremely mild (warmest December on record by over 1C I think) so I imagine we got a decent amount of rain. However it doesn't stick out in memory at all for being wet here in Kent. In fact winter is rarely especially wet here at all from memory - Only February 2020 really sticks out as being notably wet, and of course February 2022 with Ophelia however even then I don't remember exceptional wetness. The second half of December to the first half of January were wet here however the various Octobers mentioned stick out far more in my memory. In no particular order, over my lifetime, I remember July 2009, April 2012, August 2012, January 2014, August 2015, October 2019, February 2020, October 2020, May 2021, November-thru-early January 2022/3 minus the cold snap, March 2023, and now October 2023 as being notably wet here at my location. This is just my memory and it could be prone to error, and before the "what about July 2023" comments, as I've explained before, my area was more or less the only area in the country that received near-normal levels of rainfall while the west and north were receiving twice normal levels. As stupid as it may sound, July this year was not notably wet at my location.

[CryoraptorA303]

9 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Not true. 2000 really worked overtime in the latter half of the year, not including April. January, March, June and July were all pretty dry. The wettest year ever is something like 1872 I think. 2000 ranks within the top 5 I think, but Roger may correct me on that.

Oh, my bad.

[Harry's House]

14 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Not true. 2000 really worked overtime in the latter half of the year, not including April. January, March, June and July were all pretty dry. The wettest year ever is something like 1872 I think. 2000 ranks within the top 5 I think, but Roger may correct me on that.

1872 indeed was the wettest year in the EWP series. I hope we don't experience year like that in my lifetime - every month wetter than average and a year so dominated by low pressure with so few anticyclonic days according to Lambs Weather Types. People must have got really fed up with the rain.

[Roger J Smith]

On 02/11/2023 at 14:55, LetItSnow! said:

Not true. 2000 really worked overtime in the latter half of the year, not including April. January, March, June and July were all pretty dry. The wettest year ever is something like 1872 I think. 2000 ranks within the top 5 I think, but Roger may correct me on that.

You are correct, 2000 and 2012 are in top five. Top ten below

1. 1872 __ 1284.9 mm ___________6. 1960 __ 1195.0 mm

2. 1768 __ 1247.3 mm ___________7.  1903 __ 1160.3 mm

3. 2012 __ 1244.4 mm____________8. 1882 __ 1146.2 mm

4. 2000 __ 1232.4 mm____________9. 1877 __ 1144.1 mm

5. 1852 __ 1213.0 mm___________10. 1848 __ 1133.1 mm

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[CryoraptorA303]

6 hours ago, Harry's House said:

1872 indeed was the wettest year in the EWP series. I hope we don't experience year like that in my lifetime - every month wetter than average and a year so dominated by low pressure with so few anticyclonic days according to Lambs Weather Types. People must have got really fed up with the rain.

Eh, it'd be preferable to the alternative. A bit dull after a while even for my liking but I'd take it over an extraordinarily dry and sunny (and lets face it, probably very to extremely hot) year.

I doubt you could actually keep the storm track stable enough for that kind of dry or wet spell these days. Most 'x wettest' years from this century were made so by particularly intense rainfall over a given period with significant drier spells - This year being a perfect example with the dry February, second half of May, June, the average-ish August and most of September. 2012 is probably the closest we got to this and even then we had significant dry spells in March and May, and later on in the year was nowhere near as significantly wet as April-August - May. Outside of this century the closest we probably got to an extraordinarily dry year was probably something like 1995 or 1947 (1976 was extremely dry in the first half but autumn was very wet). 1975 may have overall been a very dry year as well, drier than 76 overall for sure. Both the wet and dry absolute extremes happened pre-CC which tells me such extremes simply aren't possible anymore due to greater rainfall intensity or in the opposite case, a lack of a stable enough jet stream for an entire year of heavily cyclonic conditions. However even in the absence of extreme years-long dry spells like 74-76, the greater temperatures and dryness achieved during the smaller monthly dry spells can allow the ground to reach similar levels of dryness in a considerably shorter amount of time, so we no longer need those extraordinarily long dry spells to reach those levels of drought. Similarly on the other side, rainfall is becoming more intense and a decent wet spell will normally see triple digits nationally nowadays, and such figures are routinely being achieved even in the driest parts of the country. For instance I don't think any months from 1875 are the xth wettest anymore and possibly never were in the first place, it was simply a case of each month being considerably or significantly wetter than average and the rainfall adding up over time. However most x driest months are still pre-21st century to my knowledge, with some exceptions. 2014 I think is the driest September on record. July 2022 is certainly one of the driest. June 2018 must be third- or second-driest but there's one or two that were just drier (not 76 though, that June was slightly less dry), although 2018 in particular got shafted from being in the history books big time; overall week-for-week, the second half of June thru the first half of July was the driest period the UK has ever experienced on record, and I challenge anyone to find a drier period; that period was confirmed to be drier than June-thru-July 76. 2018 also had a hole shot through it by that significantly wet beginning to spring, otherwise it would've been a significantly dry year, drier than it already was anyhow, as I understand it none of the autumn months were particularly wet. In fact I remember October 2018 being unusually sunny and dry here. Overall I think it's something obscure like April 1860something that is the overall driest month ever recorded, and the driest July is also from the late 1800s, just edging out 2022. The driest August is very close between 1947 and 1995 I think; August 03 didn't quite reach them. Overall September 03 was even drier iirc. Also pretty sure November 21 is close to being the driest on record.

[Roger J Smith]

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ____ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

1981-2010 average JUN ___14.4 _____ 66.3 ___________-2.6 __+16.3 _____44 ___ 44.2

1981-2010 average JUL____16.6 _____ 67.3 ___________+0.5 __-62.2 ______ 6 ___ 28.4

1981-2010 average AUG __ 16.5 _____ 75.6 ___________ 0.0 __ +0.6 _______3 ___ 0.8*

1981-2010 average SEP ___ 14.0 _____ 77.2 ___________-3.0 __-13.8 ______58 ___5.5

1981-2010 average OCT ___ 10.5 _____104.1___________-1.6 __-73.2 ______58 ___24.2

*rank 0.8 for AUG EWP was better than all forecasters (error 0.6, their low error 2.0).  For CET I rounded 16.45 (1981-2010 value now in v2.0.1.0) up to 16.5. Even so, 1981-2010 was clearly a very accurate forecast of Aug 2023. 

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

1991-2020 average JUN ___ 14.6 ____ 70.5 ______________ -2.4 __20.5 ____ 50 ___ 47.2

1991-2020 average JUL ____16.8 ____ 72.0 ______________ +0.7__-57.5_____10 ___ 22.0

1991-2020 average AUG ___16.6 ____ 82.3 ______________+0.2 __ +7.3 _____ 6 ____ 9.6

1991-2020 average SEP ___ 14.2 ____ 76.0 ______________-2.8 __-15.0 _____ 56 ___ 6.0

1991-2020 average OCT ___ 10.8 ____102.9______________-1.3 __-74.4 _____ 56 __ 24.5

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

1993-2022 average JUN ____14.7 ____ 69.5 _____________-2.3 ___ 19.5 ____ 49 ___ 45.8

1993-2022 average JUL ____ 16.9 ____ 70.5 ____________ +0.8 __ -59.0_____ 14 ___ 22.7

1993-2022 average AUG ___ 16.6 ____ 79.9 ____________ +0.2 __ +4.9 ______ 6 ____ 2.9

1993-2022 average SEP ____ 14.3 ____ 75.9 ____________ -2.7 __ -15.1 _____ 56 ___ 6.1

1993-2022 average OCT ____ 11.0 ____106.1 ____________-1.1 __ -71.2 _____ 53 ___ 21.7

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

consensus JUN _____________15.4 ___ 50.0 _______________-1.6 __ +1.2 _____26 ___ 11

consensus JUL _____________ 17.6 ___ 68.0 ______________ +1.5 __-61.5 ____ 30 ___ 27

consensus AUG ____________16.8 ___ 82.7 ______________ +0.4 __ +7.7 ____ 16 ____10

consensus SEP _____________15.5 ___ 56.0 ______________ -1.5 __ -35.0 ____ 30 ____26

consensus OCT _____________12.5 ___ 98.0 ______________ +0.4 __ -79.3 ____19 ____28

=======================

"Robot Forecaster" _______________________________________ avg err ________ avg rank

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -_________________________________________ CET __ EWP ____CET __ EWP

1981-2010 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.19 __29.01 ___ 34.4 __ 20.6

1991-2020 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.07 __29.39 ___ 34.3 __ 22.2

1993-2022 mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.04 __27.05 ___ 33.7 __ 22.7

consensus mean of 11 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.75 _ 33.56 ____19.6 __ 22.5

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

(mean of actual errors is "bias" of forecasts and is -0.9 for 1981-2010 and -0.6 for 1991-2020, and is currently -0.26 for our consensus, meaning on average our consensus forecasts were 0.26 below outcomes but normals were 0.6 to 0.9 below outcomes ... it's a different measure of consensus being a bit better compared to normals).

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: For CET, October again widened gap between consensus and normals, as our consensus gained more ground and is well into a statistically significant position relative to the random aspect of normals. For EWP, the trend was static as consensus and normals were well below outcome.

It appears most of us are making skilled forecasts of CET but not EWP where using normal values would improve our scores. In fact, only top 4 or 5 EWP forecasters are improving on normals, while top two-thirds of the CET contest field achieve at least some improvement over normals. 

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith
adjusted OCT EWP errors

[Roger J Smith]

 

EWP scoring for 2022-23 contest year to date and OCT (adjusted) 

 

A new system is being used to derive average error for entrants missing one to six months; the missing months are now added into their totals for average error, taking consensus error plus 5 mm, a forecast which usually scores around average for that month -- this has effect of smoothing out missing months with larger or smaller errors than average. Actual average errors for entries shown at end of data for those forecasters. Entrants with four or fewer forecasts are not ranked for average error. 

Previous table adjusted (176.2 to 177.3 mm) 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n __ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)__ Oct fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray _____________11 ___ 79.42 ________ 28.55 ( 6 ) _ ( 1 ) ____ 99.0 __ 5.25 (28) 

_02 __ 03 ___ Reef _________________ 11 ___ 76.01 ________ 27.71 ( 3 ) _ ( 6 ) ____131.0 __ 8.76 (8)

_03 __ 04 ___ bobd29 ______________11 ___ 73.99 ________ 27.98 (t4) _ ( 3 ) ____ 112.5 __ 7.16 (17)

_04 __ 06 ___ Summer Shower_____ 10 ___ 72.39 ________ 26.20* ( 4 )__( 4 ) ___134.0 __ 9.12 (6) __* actual 24.42

_05 __ 05 ___ Jeff C _________________11 ___ 71.13 ________ 30.36 (10) _ (10) ____115.0 __ 7.33 (16)

_06 __ 02 ___ Leo97t _______________11 ___ 70.73 ________ 30.96 (11) _ ( 2 ) _____ 80.0 __ 1.78 (47) 

_07 __ 07 ___ Weather Observer ___11 ___ 69.98 ________ 31.15 (12) _ (13) ____110.0 __ 6.78 (20) 

_08 __ 10 ___ virtualsphere ________ 11 ___ 69.61 ________ 29.07 ( 8 )_ ( 8.) ____128.0 __ 8.40 (10) 

_09 __ 08 ___ February1978 ________11 ___ 69.60 ________ 31.24 (13) _ (12) ____108.0 __ 6.45 (21)  

_10 __ 13 ___ Emmett Garland _____11 ___ 67.93 ________ 29.36 ( 8.) _ (14) ____133.0 __ 8.94 (7)

_11 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________11 ___ 65.93 ________ 32.89 (17) _ (17) ____105.0 __ 6.17 (24)

_12 __ 16 ___ Polar Gael ____________11 ___ 65.08 ________ 32.84 (16) _ (22) ____127.1 __ 8.22 (11)

_13 __ 12 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 11 ___ 64.69 ________ 33.65 (18) _ (19) ____100.0 __ 5.54 (25) _26 lev

_14 __ 15 ___ J 10 ___________________11 ___ 64.54 ________ 31.82 (14) _ (16)____116.0 __ 7.42 (16)

_15 __ 22 ___ Roger J Smith _________11 ___ 64.39 ________ 27.55 ( 2 ) _ ( 7 ) ____137.5 __ 9.47 (4) 

_16 __ 18 ___prolongedSnowLover _11 ___ 64.16 ________ 30.20 ( 9 ) _ ( 9 ) ____116.0 ___7.69 (14) 

_17 __ 09 ___ Mulzy ________________ 11 ___ 62.71 ________ 34.82 (20) _ (15) ____ 75.0 __ 1.15 (51)

_18 __ 17 ___ summer18 ___________ 11 ___ 61.80 ________ 32.00 (15) _ (11) ____ 98.0 __ 4.98 (29)

_19 __ 20 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 11 ___ 61.66 ________ 35.89 (22) _ (29) ____105.0 __ 6.27 (22)

_20 __ 14 ___ seaside60 ____________11 ___ 61.26 ________ 37.38 (30) _ (28) ____ 88.0 __ 3.38 (37) _38 lev

_21 __ 19 ___ Stationary Front _____ 11 ___ 59.51 ________ 34.62 (19) _ (18) ____ 88.0 __ 3.18 (40)

_22 __ 21 ___ dancerwithwings _____11 ___ 59.12 ________ 37.35 (28) _ (30) ____ 91.0 __ 3.91 (35)

_23 __ 24 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 11 ___ 56.64 ________ 36.45 (t23) _ (23) ____ 88.0 __ 3.08 (41)

_24 __ 23 ___ Wold Topper _________ 11 ___ 55.38 ________ 37.78 (31) _ (25) ____ 75.0 __ 1.25 (50)

_25 __ 26 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___10 ___ 54.49 ________ 37.36* (29) _ (32) ___ 93.0 __ 4.26 (33) __ *actual 35.73 

_26 __ 25 ___ daniel* _______________ 11 ___ 54.04 ________ 41.51 (42) _ (33) ____ 57.0 __ 0.54 (54)

_27 __ 28 ___ Mr Maunder __________11 ___ 53.38 ________ 38.45 (32) _ (34) ____ 92.0 __ 4.09 (34)

_28 __ 27 ___ Don __________________ 11 ___ 51.25 ________ 38.55 (t33)_ (27) ____ 75.0 __ 1.05 (52)

_29 _  29 ___ Weather26 ____________10 ___ 50.01 ________ 36.45*(t23) _(21) ___ 81.0 __ 1.96 (45) __ *actual 32.62

_30 __ 31 ___ Godber 1 _____________11 ___ 48.74 ________ 39.87 (38) _ (36) ____ 88.0 __ 3.28 (39) 

_31 __ 36 ___ summer8906 __________7 ___ 48.72 ________ 28.12*(t4) _  ( 5 ) ___120.0 __ 8.04 (12) __ *actual 28.48

_32 __ 37 ___ rwtwm _______________ 11 ___ 48.65 ________37.36 (35) _ (44) ____150.0 __ 9.65 (3) 

_33 __ 30 ___ The PIT _______________11 ___ 48.22 ________ 42.69 (46) _ (41) ____ 70.0 __ 0.71 (53)

_34 __ 41 ___ summer blizzard _____ 11 ___ 45.37 ________ 40.33 (41) _ (48) ___ 137.0 __ 9.29 (5) 

_35 __ 32 ___ shillitocettwo _________11 ___ 45.10 ________ 45.98 (51) _ (50) ____ 87.0 __ 2.49 (43)

_36 __ 33 ___ davehsug _____________11 ___ 44.29 ________ 41.64 (43) _ (42) ____ 82.0 __ 1.83 (46) _v_ 

_37 __ 39 ___ Methuselah ___________11 ___ 42.37 ________ 42.55 (45) _ (45) ____ 95.0 __ 4.80 (30)

_38 __ 34 ___ noname_weather_____10 ___ 42.27________ 38.55*(t33)_ (35) ____ no fcst __ *actual 42.27

_39 __ 35 ___ Mapantz ______________ 8 ___ 42.18 ________ 37.25*(26) _ (31) ____ no fcst __ *actual 34.34 

_40 __ 38 ___ SteveB ________________11 ___ 41.22 ________ 44.29 (47) _ (46) ____ 88.0 __ 2.68 (42) _v_

_41 __ 40 ___ Neil N _________________10 ___ 38.65 ________ 45.71*(49) _ (47) ____ 77.0 __ 1.50 (49) __ *actual 42.80

_42 __ 45 ___ Frigid _________________ 11 ___ 38.26 ________ 47.56 (54) _ (54) ____105.0 __ 6.07 (24)

_43 __ 48 ___ stewfox ________________ 7 ___ 37.49 ________ 37.86*(32) _ (40) ___ 120.0 __ 7.94 (13) __*actual 34.29

_44 __ 42 ___ syed2878 _____________ 11 ___ 37.22 ________ 45.62 (48) _ (49) ____ 85.0 __ 2.31 (44)

_45 __ 47 ___ Metwatch _____________10 ___ 36.47 ________ 45.95* (50) _(52) ____ 95.0 __ 4.70 (31) __ *actual 49.66

_46 __ 49 ___ Moorlander ___________11 ___ 34.28 ________ 47.55 (53) _ (53) ____ 101.0 __ 5.41 (26) __v__ (25 lev)

_47 __ 43 ___ DiagonalRedLine ______ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 36.63*(25) _ (33) ____ no fcst __ *actual 33.52

_48 __ 44 ___ Norrance ______________ 8 ___ 32.65 ________ 39.59*(37) _ (37) ____ no fcst __ *actual 37.56

_49 __ 53 ___ chilly milly _____________11 ___32.34 ________ 52.03 (56) _ (56) ____130.0 __ 8.58 (9)

_50 __ 46 ___ freeze _________________ 5 ___ 31.95 ________ 35.26*(21) _ (20) ____ no fcst ___ *actual 31.92

_51 __ 51 ___ B87 ____________________6 ___ 27.21 ________ 39.50*(36) _ (24) ____ 55.0 __ 0.36 (55) __ *actual 44.61 

_52 __ 50 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 40.24*(40) _ (39) ____ no fcst __ *actual 35.57

_53 __ 54 ___ catbrainz _______________7 ___ 26.32 ________ 42.27*(44) _ (43) ____ 94.0 __ 0.54 (32) __ *actual 48.52 

_54 __ 52 ___ Cymro _________________ 4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_55 __ 56 ___ Earthshine _____________9 ___ 26.09 _________48.20*(55) _ (55)____110.0 __ 6.98 (17) __ *actual 51.26

_56 __ 55 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 8 ___ 23.41 _________ 47.23 (52) _ (51) ____ 77.0 __ 1.60 (48) __ *actual  48.34 

_57 __ 57 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 40.13 (39) _ (38) ____ no fcst __ *actual 44.90

_58 __ 58 ___ Coventry Weather _____ 2 ____19.00 _________ 8.25 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst 

_59 __ 59 ___ Blast From the Past ____ 4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_60 __ 64 ___ Somerset Girl ___________3 ___ 17.75 _________42.10 (---) _ (---) ____ 90.0 __ 3.73 (36)

_61 __ 60 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 4 ___ 17.04 ________ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_62 __ 61 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __2 ___ 15.86 ________ 21.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_63 __ 62 ___ AddicksFan1981 ________3 ____14.18 ________57.77 (---) _ (---) ____ 45.0 ___ 0.00 (57)

_64 __ 63 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ____14.06 ________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_t66 __ --- ___ Alexis J 9 ________________ 1 ____10.00 _________2.30 (---) _ (---) ____175.0 __10.00 (1)

_69 __ --- ___ cryoraptorA303 _________ 1 ____ 9.83 __________ 5.30 (---) _ (---) ____172.0 __ 9.83 (2)

_72 __ 87 ___ mazelike ________________2 ____ 8.15 _________ 47.05 (---) _ (---) ____ 99.0 __ 5.35 (27)

_77 __ --- ___ WYorksWeather _________1 ____ 6.88 ________ 67.30 (---) _ (---) ____110.0 __ 6.88 (20)

_83 __ --- ___ mattstoke _______________ 2 ____ 4.82 ________ 78.30 (---) _ (---) ____ 90.0 __ 3.33 (38) _vv_ 36 lev

_99 __ --- ___ TwisterGirl81 ____________1 ____ 0.18 ________125.30 (---) _ (---) _____ 52.0 __ 0.18 (56)

 

(only October entrants are shown after 64th place in annual contest) 

(only entrants with 5-9 entries have an adjusted average error and actual average error shown to right)

__v__ ... scores subject to late penalty (can drop scoring ranks relative to scoring level as indicated)

=========================

 (9.7) _(5.4) __ Consensus _____________ 11 ___ 68.56 _______ 33.56 (17.9) (17.2) __ 98.0 __ 4.98 (29)

 (5.4) _(4.6) __ 1981-2010 average _____11 ___ 70.98 _______ 29.01 ( 6.9) _( 4.1) __104.1 __ 6.04 (24.3)

 (10.6) (10.1) __1991-2020 average ____11 ___ 66.78 _______ 30.31 ( 9.7) _( 6.1) __102.9 __ 5.97 (24.7)

(11.7)(12.9) _ 1993-2022 average _____11 ___ 65.37 _______ 30.97 (11.1) _( 7.9) __106.1 __ 6.53 (21.6)

___________________________

FORECASTS (in order)

 

175_Alexis .. 172_cryo .. 150_rwtwm .. 137.5_RJS .. 137_sb .. 134_SumSh .. 133_EG .. 131_Reef .. 130_cm ..

128_virt .. 127.1_PG .. 120_sum8906, stew .. 116_pSL, J10 .. 115_Jeff .. 112.5_bob .. 110_Earth,WYorks, WxOb ..

108_Feb78 ..106.1_93-22 .. 105_ MIA, jon, frig .. 104.1_81-20 .. 102.9_91-20 .. 101_Moor^.. 100_DR(S)NO ..

 99_ maze, snow ..  98_sum18 ..  96.4 all data .. 95_meth, met .. 94_cat .. 93_IRem .. 92_MrM .. 91_dww ..

 90_sg, matt^  .. 88_sea, godb, SF, Feb91, ste^ .. 87_shil .. 85_syed .. 82_dave^.. 81_wx26 .. 80_leo ..

 77_sv, NN .. 75_WT, Mul, Don .. 70_PIT .. 57_dan* .. 55_B87 .. 52_TG81 .. 45_Add ..

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Harry's House]

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

You are correct, 2000 and 2012 are in top five. Top ten below

1. 1872 __ 1284.9 mm ___________6. 1960 __ 1195.0 mm

2. 1768 __ 1247.3 mm ___________7.  1903 __ 1160.3 mm

3. 2012 __ 1244.4 mm____________8. 1882 __ 1146.2 mm

4. 2000 __ 1232.4 mm____________9. 1887 __ 1144.1 mm

5. 1852 __ 1213.0 mm___________10. 1848 __ 1133.1 mm

 

For no.9, I think you meant the year 1877. 1887 was a very dry year.

[J10]

Excel Oct 2023 CET.xlsx

Summary Oct 2023 Summary.pdf

Summary Overall Oct 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly

Three players spot on this month, Summer18, Typhoon John and Frigid 

Seasonal

sunny_vale stays in the lead, Roger J Smith 2nd from 6th and Kentish Man 3rd from 11th.

Overall

Some changes this month.

The PIT 1st (from 4th), DR(S)NO stays 2nd, Summer Sun 3rd (from 1st).

[Don]

2 hours ago, J10 said:

Overall

Some changes this month.

The PIT 1st (from 4th), DR(S)NO stays 2nd, Summer Sun 3rd (from 1st).

Oh, slipping down the ranks.  Must buck my ideas up! 

[Dancerwithwings]

39 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh, slipping down the ranks.  Must buck my ideas up! 

Yes you’re right behind me……

That isn’t a sin is it Don…lol  

[Roger J Smith]

 

Combined ranks for annual contests 2022-2023

_cr = combined rank, only listed for entrants of CET and EWP. 

... CET-only entrants are in position in table equivalent to cr, not average rank.

// ___ Ranks ___ (CET only*) ___________________ ___ ____Avg errors (ranks)

cr __CET_EWP __Avg rank _FORECASTER ______ n ____ (C deg) ____ (mm)

01 __06 _ 02 ___ 04.0 ____ Reef _________________11 ___ 0.65 (t4) ___ 27.71 ( 3 ) 

02 __05 _ 06 ___ 05.5 ____ Leo97t ______________ 11 ___ 0.69 (t6) __ 30.96 (11) 

--- __ 03 _ --- ___ 03* _____ Summer Sun ________11 ___ 0.62 (2)

03 __02 _ 13 ___ 07.5 ____ DR(S)NO ____________ 11 ___ 0.65 (t4) __ 33.65 (18)

04 __09 _ 09 ___ 09.0 ____ February1978 _______11 ___ 0.77 (t13)__ 31.24 (13)

05 __19 _ 01 ___ 10.0 ____ snowray _____________11 ___ 0.86 (t20)__ 28.55 ( 6 ) 

06 __18 _ 07 ___ 12.5 ____ Weather Observer ___11 ___ 0.97 (t32)__ 31.15 (12) 

07 __22 _ 04 ___ 13.0 ____ Summer Shower_____10 ___ 0.95 (31) ___ 24.42 ( 4 )*

--- __ 11 _ --- ____ 11* ____ damianslaw _________ 11 ___ 0.81 (15)

--- __t14 _ --- ____ 14* ____ mark bayley _________ 11 ___ 0.77 (t13)

08 __07 _ 22 ___ 14.5 ____ dancerwithwings ____ 11 ___ 0.72 (11) __ 37.35 (28) 

--- __ 16 _ --- ____ 16* ____ Typhoon John _______ 11 ___ 0.91 (t27)

09 __10 _ 23 ___ 16.5 ____ Feb1991Blizzard _____11 ___ 0.86 (t20)__ 36.45 (t23) 

10 __01 __ 33 ___17.0 ____ The PIT ______________11 ___ 0.69 (t6) ___ 42.69 (46) 

11 __32 _ 03 ___ 17.5 ____ bobd29 ______________11 ___ 1.12 (42) ___ 27.98 (t4) 

12 __08 _ 28 ___ 18.0 ____ Don _________________ 11 ___ 0.74 (12) ___ 38.54 (34) 

13 __21 _ 16 ___ 18.5____prolongedSnowLover_11 ___ 0.86 (t20) ___ 30.20 ( 9 )

14 __12 _ 27 ___ 19.5 ____ Mr Maunder _________11 ___ 0.85 (t18) __ 38.45 (33) 

15 __23 _ 19 ___ 21.0 ____ Midlands Ice Age ____ 11 ___ 0.90 (26) ___ 35.89 (22) 

t16__36 _ 08___ 22.0 ____ virtualsphere ________11 ___ 1.24 (t46) ___ 29.07 ( 8 )

t16__30 _ 14___ 22.0 ____  J 10 __________________11 ___ 1.00 (t36) ___ 31.82 (14)

t18__35 _ 11 ___23.0 ____ jonboy _______________11 ___ 1.30 (49) ___ 32.86 (17) 

t18__(15)_ 31___ 23.0 ___ summer8906 _________7 ____ 0.53 (1) ____ 28.48 (t4)* 

t18 __ t14_ 32 ___ 23.0 ___ rwtwm ______________ 11 ___ 0.85 (t18) __ 37.36 (27) 

21 _ t28__ 20 ___ 24.0 ____seaside60 ___________11 ___ 0.98 (t34) __ 37.38 (t29)

t22__25 _ 24 ___ 24.5 ____ Wold Topper ________11 ___ 0.86 (t20) __ 37.78 (31) 

t22 __34 _ 15 ___ 24.5 ____ Roger J Smith _______11 ___ 1.05 (t39) __ 27.55 ( 2 )

t22__04 _ 45 ___ 24.5 ____ Metwatch ___________10 ___ 0.63 (3) ____ 49.66 (50)*

t22__13 _ 36 ___ 24.5 ____ davehsug ___________ 11 ___ 0.84 (t16) __41.60 (43) 

t22 __31 _ 18 ___ 24.5 ____ summer18 _________ 11 ___ 1.14 (43) __ 32.00 (15)

27 __47 _ 05 ___ 26.0 ____  Jeff C ________________11 ___ 1.37 (53) __ 30.36 (10) 

t28__41 _ 10 ___ 26.5 ____ Emmett Garland ____11 ___ 1.33 (t51) __ 29.36 ( 8.) 

t28__t28_ 25 ___ 26.5 ____ I Remember Atl252 _10 ___ 1.05 (t39) __ 35.73 (t29)*

30 __37 _ 17 ___ 27.0 ____ Mulzy _______________ 11 ___ 1.20 (44) ___ 34.78 (20)

31 __17 _ 38 ___ 27.5 ____ noname_weather____10 ___ 0.88 (25) __ 42.38 (35)*

---- __(28) _ --- __ 28* ____ Man with Beard _______5 ___ 0.70 (t8) 

32 __20 _ 40 ___ 30.0 ____ SteveB _______________11 ___ 0.92 (29) __ 44.29 (47) 

t33__51 _ 12 ___ 31.5 ____ Polar Gael ___________11 ___ 1.97 (63) __ 32.84 (16)

t33_ t42 _ 21 ___ 31.5 ____Stationary Front _____11 ___ 1.39 (54) __ 34.62 (19) 

t33 _26 __ 37 ___ 31.5 ____ Methuselah _________11 ___ 1.00 (t36) __ 42.54 (45) 

---- _ 40 _ ---- ____ 40* ____ Walsall Wood Snow _ 11 ___ 1.29 (48) 

---- _(40) _ --- ____ 40* ____Quicksilver1989 ______ 6 ___ 0.98 (t34) 

t36 __39 _ 29 ___34.0 ____ Weather26 __________10 ___ 1.24 (t46) __ 32.62 (t23)*

t36 _t42__ 26 ___34.0 ____ daniel* ______________11 ___ 1.43 (t55) __ 41.51 (42) 

38 __27 __ 42 ___ 34.5 ____ Frigid _______________ 11 ___ 1.00 (t36) __ 47.56 (54)

39 __(31)_ 39 ___ 35.0 ____ Mapantz _____________ 8 ___ 0.91 (t27) __ 34.34 (26)*

40 __38 __ 34 ___ 36.0 ____ summer blizzard ____11 ___ 1.20 (45) __ 41.65 (41)

41 __(17) _ 56 ___ 36.5 ____ sunny_vale __________ 8 ___ 0.70 (t8) ___ 48.34 (52)*

---- __46 __ ---- ___ 46* ____ Kentish Man ________ 11 ___ 1.48 (57)

42 __(21) _ 53 ___ 37.0 ____ catbrainz ____________ 7 ___ 0.70 (t8) ___ 48.69 (44)*

43 __(28) _ 48 ___ 38.0 ____ Norrance ____________ 8 ___ 0.84 (t16) __ 37.56 (37)*

44 __24 _ 54 ___ 39.0 ____ Earthshine _____________9 ___ 0.94 (30) __ 51.27 (55)*

45 __33 __ 46 ___ 39.5 ____ Moorlander _________11 ___ 1.06 (41) __ 47.54 (53) 

t46 _50 __ 30 ___ 40.0 ____ Godber 1 ___________ 11 ___ 1.51 (t58) __ 39.87 (38) 

t46 _45 __ 35 ___ 40.0 ____ shillitocettwo ________11 ___ 1.70 (62) __ 45.99 (51)

48 __(35)_ 50 ___ 42.5 ____ freeze ________________ 5 ___ 0.86 (t20) __ 31.92 (21)*

49 __(43) _43 ___ 43.0 ____ stewfox ______________ 7 ___ 1.33 (t51) __ 34.29 (32)*

50 __44 __ 44 ___ 44.0 ____ syed2878 ___________ 11 ___ 1.51 (t58) __ 45.61 (48)

51 __49 __ 41 ___ 45.0 ____ Neil N _______________10 ___ 1.53 (61) __ 42.84 (49)* 

52 __(47)_ 47 ___ 47.0 ___  DiagonalRedLine _____ 6 ___ 0.97 (t32) __ 33.52 (25)*

53 __48 __ 49 ___ 48.5 ____ chilly milly ___________11 ___1.51 (t58) __ 52.02 (56)

54 __(48)_ 51 ___ 49.5 ____ B87 ___________________6 ___ 1.32 (50) __ 44.65 (36)*

55 _(48)_ 52 ___ 50.0 ____ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 1.43 (t55) __ 35.57 (40)*

56 _(51)_ 57 ___ 54.0 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 2.34 (64) __ 44.90 (39)*

__________________________________________

Notes: 
(a) Average rank, and combined rank, are shown only for entrants to both contests. CET-only entrants are placed where their CET rank is closest to a table rank (combined rank). 

(b) For those who only entered CET, CET rank is shown with **

(c) For those unranked in CET (8/11 or fewer entries), points total is used to determine a rank, and it is same as closest officially ranked points total, unless a tie exists there, in which case it is one higher if below tied points closest. An assigned rank for purposes of combined ranks is denoted in brackets.  

(d) For ranks of EWP errors, tabulated for only contests entered, the adjustments made in contest files(* with avg EWP error) for missing months affects rank so they appear somewhat "out of order" as a result. Ranks of CET errors (also only for contests entered) are evaluated for only table entries above (min of 5 contests) and average errors for 1-4 contests entered are not included in calculation of these. 

(e) 64 CET and 56 EWP forecasters have at least five entries. There were no forecasters with different numbers of contests entered, except for 8 who entered only CET contests. 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

EWP is down as 177.3mm

That makes it the wettest month since January 2014 for the EWP

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Weather-history

[Don]

On 04/11/2023 at 14:41, Dancerwithwings said:

That isn’t a sin is it Don…lol  

Oh I don't know?!  

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh I don't know?!  

No confessions needed, tell em to clear off….sinners is them who pick out others to try and big themselves up….but us with a long tooth know better

[Roger J Smith]

The slight uptick in EWP to 177.3 mm (1.1 higher than tracker value) combined with the new contest protocol of adding in errors of consensus errors plus five for missing months gives a result of adding 0.10 to every ranked average error, and larger amounts to unranked average errors. So it won't change any significant features of scoring reports involving EWP. I will change them to correct values at some point soon, you'll know this took place because 177.3 mm will appear where 176.2 mm had been before. 

So with the change, 2023 still fourth wettest October behind 1987 (180.2 mm), 2000 (188.0 mm) and 1903 (218.1 mm), and also Oct 2023 ranks 26th wettest of all months, in calendar order only these were wetter (with their overall ranks shown):

-- Top 25 wettest months (wetter than 26th wettest, Oct 2023) --

-- -- -- -- (ranks overall are shown)

Jan 2014 (17), march 1947 (25), July 1828 (19)

Aug 1799 (t8), 1912 (7)

Sep 1797 (15), 1799 (12), 1918 (10)

Oct 1903 (1), 1987 (22), 2000 (11)

Nov 1770 (3), 1852 (2), 1929 (5), 1940 (4), 1951 (21), 1970 (24), 2000 (20), 2009 (t8)

Dec 1868 (14), 1876 (6), 1914 (13), 1915 (16), 1929 (23), 1934 (18).

(the uptick ended a tie with Nov 2002 which is now in 28th, as it also allowed Oct 2023 to push ahead of second wettest January 1948 now 27th, it was previously 26th wettest. The top thirty are rounded off with Dec 2012 (29) and Nov 1810 (30). 

No Feb, April,  may or June made top 30, the highest rank any of them managed was 39th wettest, Feb 2020. To be fair, as that leap year had only 29 days, and all other months have 30 days, if we allow Feb 2020 to add the 3.4 mm from 1st march, it would rank 34th. April has the lowest  monthly maximum (149.9, Apr 2012) and that ranks as 104th wettest month.