October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 20th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Up it goes...

Very dramatic rise for the central England region. About 30mm in one day on Thursday, which is almost a daily record from October 2002.

[Roger J Smith]

For EWP it was 93.6 mm to 19th and an estimated 15 mm grid average for 20th to bring total to around 110 by 06z today. GFS current prediction for next ten days adds at least 40 to total, so around 150 mm will be used to adjust the scoring table already posted back in the thread. It won't really change very much as there were only three forecasts above the previous two high scores which back down to second and third; forecasts of 172 and 175 mm (which could still end up top scoring) move up and most forecasts in a range of 95 to 130 mm take a slight drop in points, those below 95 were already set in the bottom half of scoring.

CET latest estimate is around 12.3 C and daily forecasts are all in a narrow range, max near 12 or 13, min near 8 C for most. If it turned out a bit milder and averaged 11 C the outcome would be 12.5 C. 

[Don]

37 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

For EWP it was 93.6 mm to 19th and an estimated 15 mm grid average for 20th to bring total to around 110 by 06z today. GFS current prediction for next ten days adds at least 40 to total, so around 150 mm will be used to adjust the scoring table already posted back in the thread. It won't really change very much as there were only three forecasts above the previous two high scores which back down to second and third; forecasts of 172 and 175 mm (which could still end up top scoring) move up and most forecasts in a range of 95 to 130 mm take a slight drop in points, those below 95 were already set in the bottom half of scoring.

CET latest estimate is around 12.3 C and daily forecasts are all in a narrow range, max near 12 or 13, min near 8 C for most. If it turned out a bit milder and averaged 11 C the outcome would be 12.5 C. 

Looks like 13C is just out of reach now.

[Snowyowl9]

Wettest october on record here..Still got 10 days to go..

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.1C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 164.1mm 198.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 21st

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

18 hours ago, Don said:

Looks like 13C is just out of reach now.

GFS haven't been very good at verifying lately so I am sceptical of what will potentially come off out of them, the ECM though has been a lot more accurate lately.   

[damianslaw]

Slightly above average temps for rest of the month it seems. Limited cold at night away from northern sheltered spots at times, but also nothing overly mild on the cards, with a predominantly atlantic cyclonic flow.

A finish somewhere in the 12s more likely than 11s or 13s. An appreciably above average month again, but not on the same scale as September or June. Will Nov or Dec break the mould?

Edited October 22, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

43 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Slightly above average temps for rest of the month it seems. Limited cold at night away from northern sheltered spots at times, but also nothing overly mild on the cards, with a predominantly atlantic cyclonic flow.

A finish somewhere in the 12s more likely than 11s or 13s. An appreciably above average month again, but not on the same scale as September or June. Will Nov or Dec break the mould?

Depends on whether el niño can develop more, solar activity also comes into play and other variables as well.    

[Metwatch]

The final day of the deluge now shown on central England's rainfall graph, looks to be the wettest October for this region since records began in 1873, similar with eastern Scotland. The 18-20 October period looks to be the wettest 3-day period (at 70.0mm) on record as well there.

The graphs here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

Here are the areas of the regions for reference:

The EWP is at 110.5mm, with a less dramatic rise but still quite wet for the first 20 days of October.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Metwatch

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

The final day of the deluge now shown on central England's rainfall graph, looks to be the wettest October for this region since records began in 1873, similar with eastern Scotland. The 18-20 October period looks to be the wettest 3-day period (at 70.0mm) on record as well there.

The graphs here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

Here are the areas of the regions for reference:

The EWP is at 110.5mm, with a less dramatic rise but still quite wet for the first 20 days of October.

That is a big spike in rain amounts.   

[Roger J Smith]

On subject of GFS verification, on 6 Oct I posted 12.6 as GFS projection to 22nd (today), I expect actual value to be around 13.0 as today's min was probably around 5 C and max 13-14 -- could be 12.9 maybe. We will see tomorrow. So, not astoundingly accurate but not terribly out by any means, given it was (correctly) projected on 6 Oct to rise past 15 to 11 Oct before dropping steadily. Also it's my calculation from GFS maps, could introduce an error but I do try to estimate from maps most likely max, min and mean daily temps. In current regime of endlessly recycling Atlantic depressions, it would be difficult for any model to be very far off actual values, bound to be near 12-13 C daytime and 7-8 C mins. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

On subject of GFS verification, on 6 Oct I posted 12.6 as GFS projection to 22nd (today), I expect actual value to be around 13.0 as today's min was probably around 5 C and max 13-14 -- could be 12.9 maybe. We will see tomorrow. So, not astoundingly accurate but not terribly out by any means, given it was (correctly) projected on 6 Oct to rise past 15 to 11 Oct before dropping steadily. Also it's my calculation from GFS maps, could introduce an error but I do try to estimate from maps most likely max, min and mean daily temps. In current regime of endlessly recycling Atlantic depressions, it would be difficult for any model to be very far off actual values, bound to be near 12-13 C daytime and 7-8 C mins. 

GFS have been underestimating temperatures lately and ECM have been closer to the mark, I think that'll continue to be honest @Roger J Smithif you are asking me.   

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 22nd

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Still a week left of October, and the promise of a fair amount of rain to come. I suspect a few spots could be on course for one of wettest on record. 

Alas, the Lake District unusually so far has escaped with a very average month rainfall wise. 

The rainfall anomaly map will make interesting viewing, expect large deviations in NE Scotland, much of centeal and eastern england and parts of Wales. Deep blues. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Oct 2023 is definitely going to be joining this Top 17 group.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.9C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall up 165.6mm 200% of the monthly average.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The leaves are still to go orange in so many trees yet!

Autumn is definitely running slow this year!

[Don]

38 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The leaves are still to go orange in so many trees yet!

Autumn is definitely running slow this year!

I remember back during the warmest October on record in 2001, it was similar a similar story, which is not surprising, given this month is shaping up to be rather similar in terms of temperature and rainfall, albeit not quite as warm overall.

[damianslaw]

The strong winds on Friday, have stripped many trees bare here. Just need a good windstorm. We've also had a few frosts which help.

Edited October 23, 2023 by damianslaw

[Luke Bowett]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The leaves are still to go orange in so many trees yet!

Autumn is definitely running slow this year!

A lot of the trees around my house typically go orange around this time and fall in November! I’m not sure what type of tree they are though.

[Pixel]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The leaves are still to go orange in so many trees yet!

Autumn is definitely running slow this year!

Maybe I'm being a little nostalgic but I seem to remember the best colours of Autumn came after a frost... we haven't seen one here yet down here. and yes the colours are a little subdued for sure.

Need a frost to make the parsnips taste better too (-:

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 23rd

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.8C +1.3C above average. Rainfall 169.9mm 205.2% of the monthly average.