October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Slight correction on my above post as the GFS 12Z does look cool, question is how cool and to be fair there isn't that high confidence level currently, it's all up in the air.   

[Roger J Smith]

EWP scoring for October 2023 and updated annual scoring __ (176.2 mm)

_ now re-posted on 4 Nov near end of thread _ 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[WYorksWeather]

4 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Slight correction on my above post as the GFS 12Z does look cool, question is how cool and to be fair there isn't that high confidence level currently, it's all up in the air.   

Biggest problem at this time of year is you can't just go by the upper air temperatures. It's also starting to be the opposite pattern to summer - wetter days tend to have higher CETs as they have essentially no diurnal range. Tomorrow at my location is forecast 15C highs and 12C lows, and quite a bit warmer further south. That's going to start holding the CET up a lot for at least the next three days I think.

[Scorcher]

18 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

It’s dropping fast now

It won't be dropping at nearly the same rate from now on though- should stabilise over the next few days with this milder air.

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Biggest problem at this time of year is you can't just go by the upper air temperatures. It's also starting to be the opposite pattern to summer - wetter days tend to have higher CETs as they have essentially no diurnal range. Tomorrow at my location is forecast 15C highs and 12C lows, and quite a bit warmer further south. That's going to start holding the CET up a lot for at least the next three days I think.

Yes we are hitting the point where high pressure overhead induces cooling quite quickly at the surface, the opposite to March- September when it normally induces heating.. upper air temps in such synoptics are misleading.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 17th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Yes we are hitting the point where high pressure overhead induces cooling quite quickly at the surface, the opposite to March- September when it normally induces heating.. upper air temps in such synoptics are misleading.

 

 

Usually yes but there are still exceptions. High pressure in the right position can still produce sunshine and mild/warm temps well into November, as we saw last year:

Or even December:

The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

[MattStoke]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

13.3c to the 17th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Hmm. My prediction on 13.2'C isn't looking good.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Hmm. My prediction on 13.2'C isn't looking good.

It’s still currently 1.7c above my prediction!

[kold weather]

Looking like a very wet 4 day period coming up from today, will probably end up above average for the EWP by the end of this weekend and makes a very wet month possible given we look likely to remain in a unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future.

 

[Frigid]

Judging from the GFS 6z, temperatures for the remaining third of the month look average at best but very wet. So suppressed maxes and higher mins most likely. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the CET comes in between 12.5-13C. Perhaps a chance it could be a bit below that which would be great for my CET prediction. Never would've thought I'd be remotely close with the first week setting records. 

So all in all, a very wet, very warm October. Shocker.

[Metwatch]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

 

The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

A little off-topic, but I was in Malta during the last few days of 2019 / first few days of 2020. I remember it being a bit showery with the odd hailstorm thrown in, along with some milder, dry days starting 2020, the seas were quite rough too, especially on the 29th.

Even with a colder airmass than what the UK had, with the sun much higher and fairly warm seas, it was still warmer, and the nights were comfortably mild too. Don't have to go too far south even in winter to see such an improvement!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.5C +1.3C above average. Rainfall still at 30.4mm 36.7% of the monthly average.

The colder days showing on the latest run will offset by the milder nights so not expecting much of a drop in the next five days.

[WYorksWeather]

6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Usually yes but there are still exceptions. High pressure in the right position can still produce sunshine and mild/warm temps well into November, as we saw last year:

Or even December:

The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

Yeah it does happen on occasion. Increasingly the pattern for settled and mild at this time of year needs to be a high positioned somewhere to the east of the UK that then draws the wind from a southerly or south-westerly direction.

[Roger J Smith]

I would say on latest guidance just a slow drop to mid-12 range seems most likely. Average of 11 C today to end of month would produce end result of 12.2 or 12.3 C and average of 11.5 around 12.6 to 12.7. In that range anyway. 

Will be posting the last thread of this contest year for Nov 2023, around 0400h Friday as is our habit (to open threads on 20th of each month). 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

As for November, things look a bit interesting at the moment! Here’s the latest from the MetO -

“Cooler later into November when blocking high pressure and easterlies are more likely. That said, as temperatures fall, particularly over the near continent, any winds from this direction may bring colder spells as the month progresses - perhaps more likely in northern and eastern areas.”

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Usually yes but there are still exceptions. High pressure in the right position can still produce sunshine and mild/warm temps well into November, as we saw last year:

Or even December:

The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

Yes my post places an emphasis of heights directly overhead, not to the se, s, sw or west.

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 18th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

Should be a rise again after today I imagine. It's going to be a very warm day on the CET for the 2nd half of the month.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Scorcher

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

13.2c to the 18th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Stop the count! My prediction is now bang on.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.3C +1.3C above average. Rainfall 50.7mm 61.2% of the monthly average

Looks like the rainfall has now caught up to near average for the month. Will be interesting what it shows by the end of tomorrow.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP rapidly increasing, was 71 mm to 18th (19:06z) and grid average on 24h map ending 06z today appears to be 15 mm for a total of about 86 mm. 

GFS indicates a further 70 mm quite possible, our contest highest forecasts (175, 172 mm) were from one-entry forecasters, and rwtwm at 150 mm is middle of scoring table, so the current scoring based on 137 mm will not change in any significant way as far as annual scoring goes. Those higher forecasts would gain points at the expense of the field in general losing no more than 0.5 and in some cases less. 

Top October EWP values are as follows: 

01 _ 218.1 _ 1903

02 _ 188.0 _ 2000

03 _ 180.7 _ 1987

04 _ 173.2 _ 1795

05 _ 171.9 _ 1967

06 _ 171.0 _ 1960

07 _ 168.4 _ 1865

08 _ 164.1 _ 2020

09 _ 162.6 _ 1882

10t_ 162.3 _ 1891, 1932

12 _ 162.0 _ 1949

13 _ 161.4 _ 1880

14 _ 159.3 _ 1870

15 _ 157.6 _ 2013

==============

I took a look at CET and EWP stats to determine the warmest-wettest combinations and these are results:

 

Month __ Year ___ Total Rank __ Details ____

JAN ___ 1834 ____ 11 ____ 4th CET, 7th EWP 

FEB ___ 1990 _____ 8 ____ 3rd CET, 5th EWP

MAR __ 1981 ____ 18 ____ t16 CET, 2nd EWP

APR ___ 1961 ____ 34 ____ t17 CET, 17th EWP

MAY __ 1889 ____ 60 ____ t28 CET, 32nd EWP

JUN ___ 1982 ____ 56 ____ t46 CET, 10th EWP

JUL ____ 1779 ____ 39 ____ t29 CET, 10th EWP

AUG ___ 2004 ____ 20 ____ t15 CET, 5th EWP

SEP ____ 1999 ____ 47 ____ t10 CET, 37th EWP

OCT ____ 2013 ____ 27 ___ 12th CET and 15th EWP

NOV ____ 2009 ____ 17 ___ t12 CET and 5th EWP ... (2022 __ 23 _ t7 CET and 16th EWP) _ 2002 also 28, t19, 9

DEC ____ 1934 _____ 7 ____ 2nd CET and 5th EWP ... (2015 __ 21 _ 1st CET and 20th EWP)

===========

Spring is the season where warmth and rain are least likely to be found together, and this month has a chance to outdo all of the above.   

Edited October 20, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 19th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[kold weather]

Looks like we may end up somewhat close to that top 15 list that Roger posted and top 10 is also definitely a possibility.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.3C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall suddenly up to 161.1mm 194% of the monthly average.