October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

Warmest third 1981-2022 bold, middle third italic and coldest third underlined ... v2.0.1.0 CET now shown for all CET data.

 

20.1 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.0 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

(note monthly mean ties in this table are ties in one decimal, the official CET table is now based on two decimals not shown and their rank ordering is not exactly as shown here, although there is no way to know when the official table has tied values from second decimal also, in particular when these include years before the daily data period 1772-present.)

13.2 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 1969

13.0 ... third warmest Oct 2005

12.9 ... fourth warmest Oct 2006

12.8 ... tied fifth warmest Oct 1921, 2022

12.7 ... tied seventh warmest Oct, 1995 and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... ninth warmest Oct 1959

12.5 ... tenth warmest Octs 1968, 2011

12.4 ... 12th warmest Oct 2013

12.3 ... tied 13th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811 and 2014)

12.2 ... 16th warmest 2017

12.1 ... has never occurred in all 364 years (v2.0.1.0)

12.0 ... tied 17th warmest 1818 and 2021

11.9 ... tied 19th warmest 1945, 1954

11.8 ... tied 21st warmest 1861, 1908 (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.7 ... 1990 (tied 23rd with four including 1978)

11.6 ... has never occurred in all 364 years (v2.0.1.0) _ is considered to be new equivalent of old Dec 5.9 in v2.0.1.0 (Dec 5.9 occurs now)

11.5 ... 1989, 1996

11.4 ... 2009

11.3 ... most recent 1971

11.2 ... mean 2001-2022 ... most recent and only 1706

11.1 ... most recent 1979

11.0 ... 1984 ... ... average 1993-2022  ... (jumped from 10.8 as 2022 replaced cold 1992)

10.9 ... 2015  ... ... (highest 30-yr avg before 1993-2022 ... 1988-2017 and 1989-2018)

10.8 ... average for 1991-2020 ... ... 1985, 1986

10.7 ... 2007, 2016

10.6 ... 1999 

10.5 ... average for 1981-2010 (10.53) mean 1961-1990 (10.51) ... ... 2018 

10.4 ... 1998. 2004, 2020

10.3 ... 1983, 1988

10.2 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 2000, 2010 

10.1 ... mean 1901-2000 ... most recent 1966

10.0 ... 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002

 9.9 ... 1982

 9.8 ... 2019

 9.7(3) ... mean for all 364 years 1659-2022 ... ... ... most recent 1975

 9.6 ... 1987

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 ... 2008, 2012

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 ... most recent 1956

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 ... most recent 1944

 9.2 ... most recent 1955

 9.1 ... 2003

 9.0 ... most recent 1973, 8.9 1964, 8.8 1980, 8.7 1841, 8.6 1889, 8.5 1708, 8.4 1872

 8.3 ... 1981, 1993

 8.2 ... most recent 1939, 8.1 1926, 8.0 1689, 7.9 1888, 7.8 1784

 7.7 .... 27th coldest Oct 1992

 7.6 ... tied 25th coldest 1974

 7.5 ... most recent 1917, 7.4 1919, 7.3 1888, 7.2 1881 (only)

 7.1 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 7.0 ... tied 6th coldest Oct 1676, 1688

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896 (6.8, 6.7, 6.6 never recorded, only OCT values skipped on cold side of average, to 6.3 - 5.4 inclusive)

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Oct, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Saturday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of October.

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(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2022... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2022 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

164.1 mm __ 2020 _ 8th wettest October

148.8 mm __ 2019 _ t25 wettest (with 1846)

145.3 mm __ 2021 _29th wettest

114.0 mm __ 2022

106.1 mm __ mean for 1993-2022

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020

 96.4 mm __ mean for all 256 Octobers 1766 to 2022

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2022 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) (27th, 29th driest Octobers)

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) (1978 4th and 1969 5th driest Octobers)

__8.8 mm __ 1781 _ driest 1766-2021 ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978 (3rd driest)

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1991-2020, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015 and 1993-2022. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ _________________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 114.0 mm _2022 ... 145.3 mm _2021 ... 164.1 mm _2020 ... 148.8 mm _2019 ... 75.8 mm _2018 ... 51.5 mm _2017 ... 46.0 mm _2016 ...

 ... 68.4 mm _ 2015 ... 118.3 mm _2014 ... 157.6 mm _2013 ... 127.7 mm _2012 ... 68.4 mm _2011 ... 84.2 mm _2010 ... 77.9 mm _2009 ... 101.2 mm _2008

 ... 49.4 mm _ 2007 ... 115.7 mm _2006 ... 127.4 mm _2005 ... 154.9 mm _2004 ... 67.7 mm _2003 ... 144.2 mm _2002 ... 135.4 mm _2001 ... 188.0 mm _2000

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<<< Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. >>>

_ _ _ _Good luck ! !  _ _ _ _

[Don]

Whilst it's too early for a guess, I suspect October will be among the warmest on record!

[Weather26]

12.6C and 81mm please.

[summer blizzard]

11.1C, 137mm

[Earthshine]

14C and 110mm please Roger

[Don]

7 hours ago, Earthshine said:

14C and 110mm please Roger

17C September, 14C October and a 11C November?!  Now that would blow the current warmest autumn on record to kingdom come!!

Edited September 20, 2023 by Don

[Frigid]

11 hours ago, Earthshine said:

14C and 110mm please Roger

Forget Indian summer, that's an Indian monsoon 

[JeffC]

11.5C and 115 mm please

[Bobd29]

12.25C and 112.5mm forme please.

[B87]

13.0c and 55mm

[Summer8906]

12.0 and 120mm.

Mild and wet, albeit not spectacularly so. Perhaps a duller and less mild version of last year, with less southerly and more westerly bias to the wind.

Same old same old typical 2023 conditions. Would like to say something else, but I'm not hopeful.

Admittedly based on "nowcasting", the trends on the models, and picking up the vibes about the El Nino autumn/winter from hell.

I envy those who experienced October 1969. Would love to see such a month in my lifetime.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Shillitocettwo]

I feel this will break records. 13.9.C and 87mm. 

   Nothing record breakingly warm by day, just an absence of cold minima and enough 20.C or thereabout days to secure a record 

[Summer18]

Let’s go for 12.1 and 98mm 

[Typhoon John]

12.1c please

[virtualsphere]

13.5C and 128mm for me please.  Given every value has been recorded before from 12.2 to the current record, along with the warmth we've seen in Sept and residual warmth over the ocean, I think we're in with a shot of beating 2001 this October.

[Frigid]

13.2C and 85mm 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Frigid

[Addicks Fan 1981]

12.9 and 45mm of rain.    

[stewfox]

10.5c 120mm

[chilly milly]

10.1c and 130mm

[The PIT]

Going for 12C and 70mm of rain.

[Wold Topper]

12.8c and 75mm please

[TwisterGirl81]

12.9 CET and 52mm, thankyou

Edited September 25, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Methuselah]

12.5C and 95mm, please.

[Roger J Smith]

On 20/09/2023 at 15:54, Bobd29 said:

12.25C and 112.5mm forme please.

could you confirm CET forecast, one decimal (12.2 or 12.3?) or did you get an unintended typo for 12.5? 

... ...

Software merged two posts so anyway, my forecast ...

 

12.4 C and 137.5 mm of pain.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Bobd29]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

could you confirm CET forecast, one decimal (12.2 or 12.3?) or did you get an unintended typo for 12.5? 

... ...

Software merged two posts so anyway, my forecast ...

 

12.4 C and 137.5 mm of pain.

Make it 12.3C please Roger.