October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Catbrainz]

12.7c and 94mm

[sunny_vale]

11.8c and 77mm please. Lovely warm first half, stormy middle, cooler settled end. 

[reef]

Warm and wet:

12.5C and 131mm

[WYorksWeather]

Hi everyone,

Been a lurker here for the past few months but this is my first post. The contests caught my eye, so I thought I'd sign up and give it a go.

My initial impression is that there's an impressive amount of warmth still available across the near continent for us to tap into, so at this stage I'd be very surprised to see a month coming out below the 30-year average.

Then, having a look at the short-term NWP output, there seems to be support for a warm spell to open October, followed by something closer to average, then possibly a further warm up.

I may come back to revise this at the last minute if the output changes, but for now I'll go with 13.3C. Rainfall is a bit of a stab in the dark but I'll go very mild and very wet with 160mm.

[Shillitocettwo]

On 20/09/2023 at 17:11, Don said:

17C September, 14C October and a 11C November?!  Now that would blow the current warmest autumn on record to kingdom come!!

We live in interesting and at the same time, concerning times. With anthropogenic climate change going into.a higher gear this year (take a look at the mean global temperature anomalies and the southern hemisphere ice extent anomalies, they're downright disgusting, ) I fear many long held records will be obliterated soon

[mazelike]

13.1c and 99mm please 

[WYorksWeather]

On 27/09/2023 at 20:51, WYorksWeather said:

Hi everyone,

Been a lurker here for the past few months but this is my first post. The contests caught my eye, so I thought I'd sign up and give it a go.

My initial impression is that there's an impressive amount of warmth still available across the near continent for us to tap into, so at this stage I'd be very surprised to see a month coming out below the 30-year average.

Then, having a look at the short-term NWP output, there seems to be support for a warm spell to open October, followed by something closer to average, then possibly a further warm up.

I may come back to revise this at the last minute if the output changes, but for now I'll go with 13.3C. Rainfall is a bit of a stab in the dark but I'll go very mild and very wet with 160mm.

Leaving the temperature as is, but I'd like to revise my rainfall prediction down to 110mm.

[syed2878]

WARM AND SOME WHAT WET IS HOW I SEE OCTOBER. I'M GOING FOR 12.5C TEMP. RAIN FALL 85MM. THANK U.

[Dancerwithwings]

12.4c & 91mm

[alexisj9]

CET 11.5

175mm

[rwtwm]

Furious with myself for bottling September's guess. I talked myself out of going for a record breaker at the last.

I don't think October will break records but I'm going big. 13C please, but grim second half so 150mm EWP.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Upping mine to 13.3 which would make it equal warmest with 2001, my rainfall suggestion hasn't changed.    

[Summer Sun]

13.4c for me please

[NeilN]

10.1c and 77mm

[CryoraptorA303]

I'm going for 13.0C, tied top three warmest on record, and looking to be a dry start with an extremely stormy and wet (but importantly mild) end, so 172mm, somewhere in the region of fifth wettest on record, 2006 style. I'd rate the chances of seeing a freezing October night at Gatwick (my preferred non-London SE station) significantly below average for this year.

If this pans out, and November follows suit, Autumn 2023 could certainly evolve into the hottest Autumn period overall on record. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think 2011 is currently the hottest Autumn period on record?

[CryoraptorA303]

On 27/09/2023 at 23:19, Shillitocettwo said:

We live in interesting and at the same time, concerning times. With anthropogenic climate change going into.a higher gear this year (take a look at the mean global temperature anomalies and the southern hemisphere ice extent anomalies, they're downright disgusting, ) I fear many long held records will be obliterated soon

Agreed. I'm convinced that at least one all-time record will be binned next year. As to which one, I couldn't possibly tell you, but I'm inclined to suggest April, May, June, August, September and October as the most likely candidates. My most likely scenario for next year is an extremely dry spring-summer period with A. either hottest April or May on record with substantial monthly all-time record break, followed by B. very hot June with exceptional heatwave that sees 38-39C, then a final heatwave in late July-early August that potentially sees a new all-time record, and makes Coningsby's 40.3C the shortest-serving all-time record in British history. I would also rate the likelihood of September 2023: Part 2 with an added record break and possibly even a >37C to be significantly higher than average for 2024, considering it's the year after an El Nino which tends to be back-ended. Don't believe me? Look at literally anywhere else in the world apart from the UK this year - I've lost count of how many places have set some sort of record. We got extremely lucky by being on the other side of the jet stream for most of summer. Probability says we won't be as lucky next year. Post-peak Nino springs also tend to be very dry, and many big heatwaves/record breaks have happened during year-after Nino summers after a very dry and sunny spring (1990, 2003, 2006, 2009 threatened to do this but global temps were relatively depressed after La Nina dominance, 2019 is an oddball due to the weak El Nino but it still generally fits this pattern). Next year will probably be the closest analogue to 2003 that we have reached since that year, except this time, SSTs will likely be through the roof and we've had 21 more years of climate change. Terrifying times are ahead of us.

Edited September 29, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[SummerShower]

12.4C and 134mm.  Warm, widespread thunderstorms unusually late, around the weekend of 21st, leading to a stormy end, akin to 2000.  80mph inland gusts across the south around 29th

[Polar Gael]

12.9°C and 127.1mm for me please.

[Midlands Ice Age]

12.8C  (tied last year), and a just above average 105mms please

MIA

[emmett garland]

12,5 and 133mm please Roger

[jonboy]

Indian summer 13.0 and 105mm of rain please 

[Weather Observer]

12.3 and 110mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

12.5c please

[snowray]

12.7c and 82mm please.

[DR(S)NO]

11.5c and 100mm

thankyou please