October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[seaside 60]

How can you bet against the continuous warmth everywhere.

12.6c

88mm

 

[Kentish Man]

12.2C thanks Roger.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

12.7c and 82mm please.

Sorry Roger, can change to 99mm please. Keep temp the same but I'm thinking possibly early frosts now, cant decide on cold second half or wet, thinking more likely mild and wet though.

Thanks

[mulzy]

11.2C and 75mm please

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12,2C, 93mm

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Agreed. I'm convinced that at least one all-time record will be binned next year. As to which one, I couldn't possibly tell you, but I'm inclined to suggest April, May, June, August, September and October as the most likely candidates. My most likely scenario for next year is an extremely dry spring-summer period with A. either hottest April or May on record with substantial monthly all-time record break, followed by B. very hot June with exceptional heatwave that sees 38-39C, then a final heatwave in late July-early August that potentially sees a new all-time record, and makes Coningsby's 40.3C the shortest-serving all-time record in British history. I would also rate the likelihood of September 2023: Part 2 with an added record break and possibly even a >37C to be significantly higher than average for 2024, considering it's the year after an El Nino which tends to be back-ended. Don't believe me? Look at literally anywhere else in the world apart from the UK this year - I've lost count of how many places have set some sort of record. We got extremely lucky by being on the other side of the jet stream for most of summer. Probability says we won't be as lucky next year. Post-peak Nino springs also tend to be very dry, and many big heatwaves/record breaks have happened during year-after Nino summers after a very dry and sunny spring (1990, 2003, 2006, 2009 threatened to do this but global temps were relatively depressed after La Nina dominance, 2019 is an oddball due to the weak El Nino but it still generally fits this pattern). Next year will probably be the closest analogue to 2003 that we have reached since that year, except this time, SSTs will likely be through the roof and we've had 21 more years of climate change. Terrifying times are ahead of us.

Mind you wasn't 1998 a post El Nino year? That had a notably cool wet April and a mostly cool cloudy summer. In fact it was a generally unsettled year, with just four settled months - and ironically, given its current reputation for being poor, one was August!

As for records, I do wonder about May. It seems to have been a long while since we had extreme hot weather in May so how about 34C at the end of May for next year? (assuming that is a record).

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Godber 1]

10.5c and 88mm please.

[Daniel*]

11.4C and 57mm thanks. This is difficult GFS going much colder. 

[Stationary Front]

October is a difficult month to predict as there is usually residual heat available to the South, or south west, whereas the air to the north is starting to cool rapidly through the month, obviously it depends on which becomes dominant over the 31 days. I think the warmer air will dominate more than the cooler option. So going for 12.4 with 88mm 

[damianslaw]

Given the anomalous warmth about, any flow from between south east and west likely to be appreciably above the norm, but unlike Sept, I don't think it will have its way all the time.

A mild 12.2 degrees with some shots of cooler air, and chilly nights under ridges.

However, there is a possibility of something much cooler should we see a more amplified flow, with the UK locked in the cold side of the jet, northerlies. easterlies and cold cyclonic conditions could abound as well as cool ridges.

October looks complex this year.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

11.6c and 116 mm for me please.

[Don]

13.0C and 75mm, please.

[Leo97t]

12.9c and 80mm

 

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Stationary Front said:

October is a difficult month to predict as there is usually residual heat available to the South, or south west, whereas the air to the north is starting to cool rapidly through the month, obviously it depends on which becomes dominant over the 31 days. I think the warmer air will dominate more than the cooler option. So going for 12.4 with 88mm 

Yes things could turn colder very quickly, I always remember the snowfall in the home counties, including parts of north London a few years back, quite unexpected, most late Octobers have been quite mild over all in recent times.

Edited September 30, 2023 by snowray

[Metwatch]

11.8C and 95mm is my final guess.

Probably the most difficult guess to make out of any month this year. Will come down to whether that absurdly warm airmass from the ECM happens and if so, how warm it gets on the surface.

I don't think it will be as warm as 2022, or as wet as the last few years, but still on the mild and wet ish side of things.

[feb1991blizzard]

12.6c and 88mm please

[Mr Maunder]

12.3c and 92mm for me please.

MM

[Somerset girl]

Heloo, just sneaking in here in time , 12.7C and oh let's see 90mm . 

[Frigid]

On 24/09/2023 at 21:23, Frigid said:

13.2C and 85mm 

A few runs have turned colder, so quite unsure tbh. Still going for a milder October, changing to 12.1C and 105mm. Thanks 

[J10]

11.6c and 116mm

After going way too low for September, going over 1c plus over average this month. Perhaps also 11.6c will happen for the first time.

Edited September 30, 2023 by J10

[February1978]

11.9c & 108mm please

Warm start, more changeable later

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _______CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ 

14.0 _ 110.0 _ Earthshine ( 3 ) ____________________12.3 _ 112.5 _ Bobd29 ( 5 ) ____________________

13.9 __ 87.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 8 ) _________________12.3 _ 110.0 _ Weather Observer (37) _________

13.5 _ 128.0 _ virtualsphere (11) _________________12.3 __ 92.0 _ MrMaunder (54) _______________

13.4 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun (29) _________________ 12.2 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (42) ________________

13.3 _ 110.0 _ WYorksWeather (22) ______________ 12.2 __ 93.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (44) ____

13.3 __ 45.0 _ AddicksFan1981 (28, 12.5) _________12.2 __ --- --- _ damianslaw (48) _________________

13.2 __ 88.0 _ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________

13.1 __ 99.0 _ mazelike (23) ______________________ 12.1 __ 98.0 _ summer18 ( 9 ) ___________________ 

13.1 __ 90.0 _ Matt Stoke (L1-3) __________________

13.0 __ 55.0 _ B87 ( 6 ) ____________________________12.1 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John (10) _______________

13.0 _ 150.0 _ rwtwm (27) ________________________12.1 _ 105.0 _ Frigid (56) ________________________

13.0 _ 172.0 _ cryoraptorA303 (31) _______________12.0 _ 120.0 _ summer8906 ( 7 ) ________________ 

13.0 _ 105.0 _ jonboy (36) ________________________ 12.0 __ 70.0 _ The PIT (14) ______________________ 

13.0 __ 75.0 _ Don (50) ____________________________11.9 _ 108.0 _ February 1978 (58) ______________

12.9 __ 52.0 _ TwisterGirl81 (16) __________________11.8 __ 77.0 _ sunny_vale (20) ___________________

12.9 _ 127.1 _ Polar Gael (33) _____________________ 11.8 __ 95.0 _ metwatch (52) ___________________

12.9 __ 80.0 _ leo97t (51) _________________________ 11.6 _ 116.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (49) ________

12.8 __ 75.0 _ Wold Topper (15) __________________ 11.6 _ 116.0 _ J 10 (57) ___________________________ 

12.8 _ 105.0 _ Midlands Ice Age (34) ______________ 11.5 _ 115.0 _ Jeff C ( 4 ) _________________________

12.7 __ 94.0 _ catbrainz (19) ______________________ 11.5 _ 175.0 _ AlexisJ9 (26) _______________________ 

12.7 __ 99.0 _ snowray (39) ________________________11.5 _ 100.0 _ DR(S)NO (40) ______________________

12.7 __ 90.0 _ somerset girl (55) ___________________11.4 __ 57.0 _ daniel* (46) _______________________ 

12.7 __ 82.0 _ davehsug (L1-5) ___________________ 11.4 _ 101.0 _ Moorlander (L1-1) ________________

12.6 __ 81.0 _ Weather26 ( 1 ) ____________________ 11.3 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-2) _________

12.6 __ 88.0 _ seaside60 (41) ______________________11.2 __ 75.0 _ Mulzy (43) _______________________  

12.6 __ 88.0 _ Feb1991blizzard (53) ________________11.1 _ 137.0 _ Summer blizzard ( 2 ) _____________  

12.5 __ 95.0 _ Methuselah (17) ____________________11.0 _ 106.1 mm __ mean for 1993-2022 _________

12.5 _ 131.0 _ Reef (21) ____________________________10.8 _ 102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 _________

12.5 __ 85.0 _ syed2878 (24) _______________________10.5 _ 120.0 _ stewfox (12) _______________________ 

12.5 _ 133.0 _ Emmett Garland (35) ______________10.5 __ 88.0 _ Godber 1 (45) ______________________

12.5 __ --- --- _ Mark Bayley (38) __________________10.5 _ 104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 _________

12.4 _ 137.5 _ Roger J Smith (18) ___________________10.1 _ 130.0 _ Chilly milly (13) ____________________

12.4 __ 91.0 _ dancerwithwings (25) _______________ 10.1 __ 77.0 _ NeilN (30) __________________________

12.4 _ 134.0 _ summer shower (32) ______________

12.4 __ 88.0 _ Stationary Front (47) _________________ 9.7 _ 96.4 mm _mean for all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766 to 2022)

12.5 _ 98.0 _ consensus ________________________ 

 

58 on-time forecasts, and five late by one day, 63 total; consensus 12.5

 

======================================= <> [] <> =================================

EWP forecasts in order

175_Alexis .. 172_cryo .. 150_rwtwm .. 137.5_RJS .. 137_sb .. 134_SumSh .. 133_EG .. 131_Reef .. 130_cm ..

128_virt .. 127.1_PG .. 120_sum8906, stew .. 116_pSL, J10 .. 115_Jeff .. 112.5_bob .. 110_Earth,WYorks, WxOb ..

108_Feb78 ..106.1_93-22 .. 105_ MIA, jon, frig .. 104.1_81-20 .. 102.9_91-20 .. 101_Moor^.. 100_DR(S)NO ..

 99_ maze, snow ..  98_sum18 ..  96.4 all data .. 95_meth, met .. 94_cat .. 93_IRem .. 92_MrM .. 91_dww ..

 90_sg, matt^  .. 88_sea, godb, SF, Feb91, ste^ .. 87_shil .. 85_syed .. 82_dave^.. 81_wx26 .. 80_leo ..

 77_sv, NN .. 75_WT, Mul, Don .. 70_PIT .. 57_dan* .. 55_B87 .. 52_TG81 .. 45_Add ..

 

_ __ _ 57 forecasts, consensus 98.0 (four late by one day ^)

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[CryoraptorA303]

15 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Mind you wasn't 1998 a post El Nino year? That had a notably cool wet April and a mostly cool cloudy summer. In fact it was a generally unsettled year, with just four settled months - and ironically, given its current reputation for being poor, one was August!

As for records, I do wonder about May. It seems to have been a long while since we had extreme hot weather in May so how about 34C at the end of May for next year? (assuming that is a record).

 

Indeed it was. However, that followed a period of weak ENSO amplitude, as 2015 and 2019 did. This time, it has more in common with 2003 in following after a triple Nina. 1990 followed after a Nina if I'm not mistaken, and 2009 came during a period of overall strong -ENSO amplitude. 2009 didn't deliver a disastrously hot summer but it certainly threatened to after a dry, sunny spring and that June heatwave.

Of course, a trend is just a trend, and there will always be some level of unpredictability. This time in particular because of the absurdly high SSTs which will throw a spanner in the works.

I agree that May is long overdue a big heatwave. We have periodically had what would in summer be a mild heatwave in this century, but we've 'only' reached 30.9C so far, which isn't too far out from a statistical norm to experience once in 23 years, although we did also see 30.7C in 2005, so this may (badum tss) be somewhat above expectations for 23 years, but not something I can see being of as much magnitude as it could've been. What May has really lacked is a SE-based heatwave - The 2012 30.9C was reached in Scotland and the 2017 heatwave failed to move far enough south to challenge 32.8C. Had the 2012 heatwave's epicentre been in the South, it wouldn't have been unreasonable to expect 34-35C, maybe even a challenge to the June record. April has a similar problem with this - I have no doubt that the 2018 heatwave could've reached 31-32 had it been more focused on the SE. However it tried to account for the west and go for the huge record break, so in the end Eastern areas didn't get as hot as they needed to and now you have the ridiculous situation of a bunch of western stations with higher April records than May records - This should tell you what kind of heatwave is needed to get past the old records in the east. 

Next year's SSTs and tropospheric temps are set to be through the roof,  which will be advantageous to extremely hot weather early in the year if synoptics cooperate. If SSTs remain as high as they are and we get a SE-focused (or huge record smashing) heatwave, I could definitely see 34-35C in May next year, maybe even 36C and a surpassing of the June record if SSTs and trop temps are high enough, which is not entirely unreasonable. It would certainly be a sign of the times if we go above the June 1976 record in May. The highest temp possible in May right now I would say is >37C, <38C. But you would need Coningsby's springtime cousin for that.

[Derecho]

The October CET of 2001 I think is the remaining CET record that is easiest to beat. The EC Control up to the 15th has a CET of 14.6C, so it would be pretty high but with the record still difficult to beat this time round. Here are the daily predicted means from the EC 00z control, judging by the meteociel tables at Rothamstad, Pershore and Stonyhurst..

1st: 16.7 (16.7)
2nd: 15.8 (14.8)
3rd: 14.8 (12.8)
4th: 14.2 (12.4)
5th: 13.8 (12.1)
6th: 13.8 (13.7)
7th: 14.1 (16.1)
8th: 14.3 (16.1)
9th: 14.6 (16.6)
10th: 14.4 (12.6)
11th: 14.4 (14.7)
12th: 14.5 (15.3)
13th: 14.6 (15.8)
14th: 14.7 (15.4)
15th: 14.6 (14.3)

Worth noting the EC Control is very much on the warm end of things, the GFS 00z OP has a CET of 12.6C up to the 16th.

There is decent agreement now up to the 8th but after that is anyone's guess with a large range of solutions.

So a hard month to call.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Derecho

[moorlander]

A tad late but I'll go for

11.4c and 101mm