October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

4 hours ago, Derecho said:

The October CET of 2001 I think is the remaining CET record that is easiest to beat. The EC Control up to the 15th has a CET of 14.6C, so it would be pretty high but with the record still difficult to beat this time round. Here are the daily predicted means from the EC 00z control, judging by the meteociel tables at Rothamstad, Pershore and Stonyhurst..

1st: 16.7 (16.7)
2nd: 15.8 (14.8)
3rd: 14.8 (12.8)
4th: 14.2 (12.4)
5th: 13.8 (12.1)
6th: 13.8 (13.7)
7th: 14.1 (16.1)
8th: 14.3 (16.1)
9th: 14.6 (16.6)
10th: 14.4 (12.6)
11th: 14.4 (14.7)
12th: 14.5 (15.3)
13th: 14.6 (15.8)
14th: 14.7 (15.4)
15th: 14.6 (14.3)

Worth noting the EC Control is very much on the warm end of things, the GFS 00z OP has a CET of 12.6C up to the 16th.

There is decent agreement now up to the 8th but after that is anyone's guess with a large range of solutions.

So a hard month to call.

So how do those figures compare to how Oct 2001 started out?

Update: I found the mean daily figures:

2001-10-01 15.0

2001-10-02 14.2

2001-10-03 14.1

2001-10-04 13.8

2001-10-05 15.9

2001-10-06 14.1

2001-10-07 12.7

2001-10-08 12.6

2001-10-09 13.1

2001-10-10 12.4

2001-10-11 14.9

2001-10-12 15.2

2001-10-13 15.9

2001-10-14 15.4

2001-20-15 15.3

So I presume that's the total 199.7/15 which would give 13.3 avg for the first half of Oct 2001. That would put us 1C ahead

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Almost forgot. I'll go for 11.3c if I'm not too late please.

[MattStoke]

13.1°C and 90mm.

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

So how do those figures compare to how Oct 2001 started out?

 

2001 had a CET of 14.3C up to the 15th.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

37 minutes ago, Derecho said:

2001 had a CET of 14.3C up to the 15th.

Thanks. I figured I had probably got it all wrong. So this first half of October could be mirroring 2001 then if that forecast is accurate.

[SteveB]

I'm well late!

13.2c and 88mm please. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Looking at October 2001, it seems very similar to 2022, with overall extreme mildness. Despite being the hottest on record, only a handful of days are >20C in London. It seems it was mostly the extremely mild nights that did it. With us projected to stay above 18C (and above 20C much of the time) into the first half with >10C rural tmins, we could definitely be on course to beat this.

As the last few days of September overshot their forecasts, I'm going to assume September 2023 is now the hottest on record until a verdict is officially made. If we were to now also have the hottest October, as far as I can tell, this would be the first time we would've had two consecutive hottest months. 2023 is already one of the only examples, along with 2006 and maybe some other obscure year in the 19th century (random guess), of a year with two separate hottest months. Three would be a true achievement. Thank god September and this potential October were not swapped with July and August this year. What a disaster that would've been.

Edited October 1, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[davehsug]

D'oh! Penalty incoming!

12.7C & 82mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

 

1981-2010 running means, 1772-2022 extremes of daily means and running means

and 1991-2020 running means 

________________________________________________________________

All values in this table are now converted to v2.0, including the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 running means.

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ______________ Running CET extremes

01 ___ 12.7 ___ 12.7 ___ 20.1 (1985) __ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.1 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88)
02 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 17.9 (1959,2011) _ 3.6 (1817&1888) __18.9 (2011) ___ 4.9 (1888)
03 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.2 ___ 19.7 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.2 (2011) ___ 5.0 (1888)
04 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___ 17.8 (1886) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.1 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)
05 ___ 11.4 ___ 12.0 ___ 18.1 (1921) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.6 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888)

06 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.9 ___18.9 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 4.9 (1888)
07 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.9 ___16.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 4.9 (1888)
08 ___ 11.6 ___ 11.8 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1888)
09 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.8 ___17.3 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.4 (1888)
10 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.8 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.6 (1888)

11 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.7 (2005) ___ 4.0 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.9 (1888)
12 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.3 (1978) ___ 3.0 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.2 (1888)
13 ___ 11.2 ___ 11.7 ___ 18.4 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
14 ___ 10.7 ___ 11.6 ___ 17.1 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
15 ___ 10.6 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.8 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)

16 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.3 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
17 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.4 ___ 15.5 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
18 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.3 ___ 16.5 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817)
19 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.0 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

20 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

21 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 15.1 (1826) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
22 ____ 9.7 ___ 11.0 ___ 16.1 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
23 ____ 9.4 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.8 (2022) ___ 1.0 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
24 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.2 (2009) ___ 0.7 (1859) ________13.8 (1959) ___ 6.4 (1817)
25 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.8 ___ 13.9 (2013) ___ 2.0 (1784) ______13.6 (1959,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
 

26 ____ 9.4 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.0 (2022) ___ 1.5 (1785) ______13.5 (1959,95,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
27 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.6 (1888) ___ 1.6 (1778, 1869) __13.5 (1969, 2001) __ 6.4 (1817) _ 1959,95 13.4
28 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.4 (1888, 2022) __ 1.2 (1895) ___13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817) _ 1969 13.3
29 ____ 8.7 ___ 10.6 ___ 14.9 (2022) ___ 0.3 (1895) _______ 13.3 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817)
30 ____ 9.0 ___ 10.5 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) _______ 13.3 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
 
31 ____ 9.1 ___ 10.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.2 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)*

===================================================================

*1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

===================================================================

1991 - 2020 daily and cumulative C.E.T. values

01 _____ 13.0 _ 13.0 ________ 11 ____ 12.1 _ 12.0 ________ 21 _____ 9.9 _ 11.3 

02 _____ 12.2 _ 12.6 ________ 12 ____ 11.7 _ 12.0 ________ 22 ____ 10.1 _ 11.2

03 _____ 12.2 _ 12.5 ________ 13 ____ 11.3 _ 11.9 ________ 23 ____ 10.3 _ 11.2

04 _____ 11.8 _ 12.3 ________ 14 ____ 10.9 _ 11.9 ________ 24 ____ 10.3 _ 11.2

05 _____ 11.7 _ 12.2 ________ 15 ____ 10.8 _ 11.8 ________ 25 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

06 _____ 11.5 _ 12.1 ________ 16 ____ 10.8 _ 11.7 ________ 26 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

07 _____ 11.5 _ 12.0 ________ 17 ____ 10.3 _ 11.6 ________ 27 _____ 9.7 _ 11.0

08 _____ 12.0 _ 12.0 ________ 18 ____ 10.0 _ 11.5 ________ 28 _____ 9.7 _ 11.0

09 _____ 11.8 _ 12.0 ________ 19 _____ 9.9 _ 11.5 ________ 29 _____ 9.2 _ 10.9

10 _____ 12.2 _ 12.0 ________ 20 _____ 9.7 _ 11.4 ________ 30 _____ 9.4 _ 10.9

_________________________________________________________ 31 _____ 9.7 _ 10.8

============================================================

Note: the 29th is the coldest day of the month in both 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 and also

for the all-time record lows (0.3 in 1895) and completes the set with the lowest running CET

value of the daily data period (1817 = 6.2, ended 6.4)

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

15 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

Thanks. I figured I had probably got it all wrong. So this first half of October could be mirroring 2001 then if that forecast is accurate.

Note values in table I just posted, 15.4 (1921) is the highest running mean for 1-15 October. 1995 also had a share a bit later in month.

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 1st

6.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[SqueakheartLW]

Thought we did remarkably well to get the annual CET of 11.15C for 2022 but the even more scary thing is how close 2023 is running to 2022 now despite not setting any real extreme maximum temperatures. I think we've struggled to see a 33C daily max this year unlike the 40C last year yet it seems we are in with a shot of having an even warmer year than last year.

If the predicted CET values in my table just for the means come off for 2nd to 17th October 2023 we do in fact close the gap to 2022 as a year slightly showing we are predicted to have an even milder first half to October 2023 compared with 2022.

GFS 00z mean, warmest and coldest members

GFS 00z mean 2nd to 17th (Green values)

Using the model mean which for the 16 days averages out at 14.0C to 1 decimal place still sees us close the gap to 2022 down slightly from -0.188C behind to just -0.070C behind and keeps us very much in the running to exceed 11.15C by the end of the year. Never expected us to be in with a shot of another 11C CET mean year but at present it is looking very likely to happen.

GFS 00z coldest member P14 (Blue values)

Even using the overall coldest member of the 00z run that averages out at 11.6C does see the gap to 2022 really maintained at the current level by the 17th. We see a change from -0.188C to -0.202C, a tiny drop away from 2022 but still such a small margin behind that we are still very much in the running to exceed 11.15C by the end of the year. Shows we are going to need a significant cooldown if we are going to avoid a record warm year again.

GFS 00z warmest member P29 (Red values)

When using the overall warmest member of the 00z run that averages out at a whopping 16.5C which is quite impressive for early to mid October sees enough of a swing to put us ahead of 2022 by the 17th. We swing from -0.188C behind 2022 to +0.071C ahead of it by the 17th. This would definitely put us well on course to beat 11.15C and if the projected CET values are underestimates as well then could we be about to not only see another 11C CET year but even exceed 2022's 11.15C despite not setting any very high maximums.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 2nd

5.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

It's probably worth mentioning for the benefit of newer thread participants mainly, that when we have a daily comparison of running mean to 1961-90, that is relative to end of October mean whereas the 1981-2010 comparison is to a similar running mean for x number of days, yesterday (above post) it would be the mean of only 1st and 2nd Oct, That would be higher by around 1.5 deg than the whole month in this season of falling temps, so the 1961-90 differential would probably be around 4 to perhaps 4.5 above if the Hadley people did what they used to do before v2.0, namely, to do what we do with the 1981-2010 numbers. That's what they used to do as well (which is why we started doing it when we introduced 1981-2010 numbers to the daily reporting). 

Anyway, that's a fairly high average already and it looks set to go even higher for a while, then drop into a more normal range, you can see record values for running means in the post I made a couple of days ago, the years that share the relay this month would be 1985 (only 1st), 2011, 1959, 1921, 1995 and 2001. I suspect we may see 2023 breaking into that club at least briefly around 7th and 8th. 

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 3rd

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

It's probably worth mentioning for the benefit of newer thread participants mainly, that when we have a daily comparison of running mean to 1961-90, that is relative to end of October mean whereas the 1981-2010 comparison is to a similar running mean for x number of days, yesterday (above post) it would be the mean of only 1st and 2nd Oct, That would be higher by around 1.5 deg than the whole month in this season of falling temps, so the 1961-90 differential would probably be around 4 to perhaps 4.5 above if the Hadley people did what they used to do before v2.0, namely, to do what we do with the 1981-2010 numbers. That's what they used to do as well (which is why we started doing it when we introduced 1981-2010 numbers to the daily reporting). 

Anyway, that's a fairly high average already and it looks set to go even higher for a while, then drop into a more normal range, you can see record values for running means in the post I made a couple of days ago, the years that share the relay this month would be 1985 (only 1st), 2011, 1959, 1921, 1995 and 2001. I suspect we may see 2023 breaking into that club at least briefly around 7th and 8th. 

The 1981-2010 mean being used here on the daily updates leaves me scratching my head. The 1991-2020 mean should be being used now.

[Roger J Smith]

The 1991-2020 values are available in my post earlier (on 2nd), and show a differential of +0.3 to 3rd so we were 2.5 above the 1991-2020 running mean as compared with 2.8 for 1981-2010. Maybe I'll add these comparisons every so often but the overall data set average increase was about 0.2 or 0.3 in the normals so that will also be the overall average difference, in these warm times we are having, a reduction by that amount in the surprlus relative to 1981-2010. 

[damianslaw]

Just an observation but since December the period around 8th of each month seems to coincide with anamolous warmth or chill.. Dec- start of cold, Jan and Feb- firmly mild, March- chill to an extent, March and April exclude, June- heat emerges, July and Aug chill, Sept and now Oct, warmth. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 4th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

i think the first half of October looks be one of the warmest in modern records, similarly to September (if anyone can dig out the top 5 warmest first halves that would be interesting to see). The warm airmass may stay over us until the end of next week.

So it begs the question if October ends up warmer than May, does that happen often?

Since 1960, i've found at least 20 Octobers which have been warmer than May and 7 in this century (2021, 2015, 2013, 2011, 2006, 2005, 2001, 1996, 1995, 1984, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1972, 1971, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1963, 1962).

However the CET this year for May was at a warmish 12.5C, and only about 10 Octobers have had a CET of 12.5C or above in the series. The only 3 years which had both, a May and October CET of 12.5C or above, is 2022, 2001 and 1959 (correct me if i'm wrong but that seems to be the only ones i found).

2022: May CET 13.1C, October CET 12.8C

2001: May CET 12.5C, October CET 13.2C (only year when October was warmer than May and also both a CET at or above 12.5C. 2023 would be the second instance if October CET comes out at or above 12.5C).

1959 May CET 12.8C, October CET 12.6C

If it does happen again this year, it would be the 4th time of such occurrence and the 2nd time in a row after last year. Just another possible statistic of how strange 2023 has been regarding temperatures.

It's still early on in the month, and the 2nd half of October can be much colder, but one to think about in the coming weeks regardless.

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

First half of October could be 1-15 or 1-16 so I have listed top ten values for both, and the end results for each of these. Ranks are determined by 1-15 Oct values.

 

Top ten first half CET for October

rank __ YEAR ____ 1-15 __ 1-16 ____ end Oct 

_ 01 ___ 1921 ____ 15.44 _ 15.14 ___ 12.8

_ 02 ___ 1949 ____ 14.95 _ 14.92 ___ 11.7

_ 03 ___ 1959 ____ 14.87 _ 14.73 ___ 12.6

_ 04 ___ 2011 ____ 14.65 _ 14.39 ___ 12.5

_ 05 ___ 1995 ____ 14.49 _ 14.47 ___ 12.8

_ 06 ___ 2001 ____ 14.31 _ 14.14 ___ 13.2

_ 07 ___ 1908 ____ 14.22 _ 14.21 ___ 11.8

_ 08 ___ 1969 ____ 14.15 _ 14.15 ___ 13.1

_ 09 ___ 1825 ____ 14.09 _ 13.79 ___ 10.8

_ 10 ___ 1831 ____ 13.93 _ 13.75 ___ 12.7

___________________________________________

various top Octobers not in list

_ xx ___ 2005 ____ 12.94 _ 12.99 ___ 13.0

_ xx ___ 2006 ____ 13.37 _ 13.38 ___ 12.9

_ xx ___ 2022 ____ 12.05 _ 12.03 ___ 12.8

_ xx ___ 1968 ____ 13.28 _ 13.06 ___ 12.5

_ xx ___ 2013 ____ 12.71 _ 12.52 ___ 12.4

_ xx ___ 2014 ____ 11.53 _ 11.65 ___ 12.3

_ xx ___ 1811 ____ 13.27 _ 13.35 ___ 12.3

=======================================

Greatest drop from 1-16 to 1-31 running CET

 __ 4.0 C (1926; 12.1 to 8.1)

followed by tied 2nd

 __ 3.9 C (1819; 13.0 to 9.1 __ and __ 1859; 13.5 to 9.6).

4th largest drop was

 __ 3.2 C (1949, 14.9 to 11.7).

tied 5th largest drops were

 __ 3.1 C (1869, 12.8 to 9.7 _ and _ 1895, 10.2 to 7.1 __ and __ 1931, 11.9 to 8.8).

8th largest drop was 3.0 C (1825, 13.8 to 10.8)

 

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 5th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.5c to the 5th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Narrowing the gap to last year's mean CET.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Can anyone make an estimate based on current GFS output what our projected CET running total would be into mid month?  I would do it myself, but I don't know how to!

Edited October 6, 2023 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Addicks Fan 1981]

On 04/10/2023 at 20:47, damianslaw said:

Just an observation but since December the period around 8th of each month seems to coincide with anamolous warmth or chill.. Dec- start of cold, Jan and Feb- firmly mild, March- chill to an extent, March and April exclude, June- heat emerges, July and Aug chill, Sept and now Oct, warmth. 

You have forgotten may there which was largely pleasant, although no record breaking warm days were prevelant.