October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Summer8906]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Last time that a year did not return a single month with an EWP of at least 100.00mm was 1973. 50 years ago.

Other years: 1788, 1793, 1805, 1815, 1820, 1837, 1844, 1850, 1854, 1858, 1864, 1887, 1902, 1908, 1933, 1953, 1964

Quite a gap since the last one.

Interesting that list includes 1908, which appeared to be a very interesting year for weather. Cold in early Jan, snow in April and Dec, a very warm Oct, a fine June, and warm sunny spells in July and August (though wet spells also). I'd guess 1908 was highly meridional and perhaps many of the other years above were too.

Perhaps some similarities with 2010. The most "continental" years of my lifetime were probably 1996 and 2010 (though the latter was spoiled a little by a poor August) - I wonder if those two years were also on the low side for rainfall overall (even if absent from the list)?

Edited October 29, 2023 by Summer8906

[Roger J Smith]

30 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting that list includes 1908, which appeared to be a very interesting year for weather. Cold in early Jan, snow in April and Dec, a very warm Oct, a fine June, and warm sunny spells in July and August (though wet spells also). I'd guess 1908 was highly meridional and perhaps many of the other years above were too.

Perhaps some similarities with 2010. The most "continental" years of my lifetime were probably 1996 and 2010 (though the latter was spoiled a little by a poor August) - I wonder if those two years were also on the low side for rainfall overall (even if absent from the list)?

1996 was 27th driest (out of 257 years ranked, and now 258 as 2023 is sure to pass it), and 2010 was 50th driest. Of the top ten driest years, 1964 (10th), 1933 (7th) and 1921 (2nd) are the only years after 1887 (3rd) -- 1788 was ranked driest -- and that is still the case until you reach 16th place 1973. In the 21st century, the driest year was 2003 (25th) and 2011 was 33rd. 2005 (52nd driest) and 2022 (84th) are the only others in the top 100 dry years and 2006 is the only other to fall into the dry half (at 125th driest). 2018 was 131st driest or 127th wettest and 2013 123rd wettest. 

Other top 15 dry years ahead of 1973 are 1854 (4th), 1780 (5th), 1864 (6th), 1844 (8th), 1785 (9th), 1826 (11th), 1870 (12th), 1781 (13th), 1805 (14th) and 1858 (15th). 

Since you are asking about annual precip rankings, here's a link to them:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_seasonal/HadEWP_ranked_seasonal.txt

[kold weather]

Going to be interesting to see where the 15th Oct - 15th Nov would rank in comparison to other Octobers/November's. Particularly down here in the SE it feels like it's becoming a very wet period.

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 29th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer8906]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

1996 was 27th driest (out of 257 years ranked, and now 258 as 2023 is sure to pass it), and 2010 was 50th driest. Of the top ten driest years, 1964 (10th), 1933 (7th) and 1921 (2nd) are the only years after 1887 (3rd) -- 1788 was ranked driest -- and that is still the case until you reach 16th place 1973. In the 21st century, the driest year was 2003 (25th) and 2011 was 33rd. 2005 (52nd driest) and 2022 (84th) are the only others in the top 100 dry years and 2006 is the only other to fall into the dry half (at 125th driest). 2018 was 131st driest or 127th wettest and 2013 123rd wettest. 

Other top 15 dry years ahead of 1973 are 1854 (4th), 1780 (5th), 1864 (6th), 1844 (8th), 1785 (9th), 1826 (11th), 1870 (12th), 1781 (13th), 1805 (14th) and 1858 (15th). 

Since you are asking about annual precip rankings, here's a link to them:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_seasonal/HadEWP_ranked_seasonal.txt

Thanks for that.

Some revealing things about summer, too.

If we look at the top 50 driest summers, we find many late-20th-century (1971-2000) examples: 1972, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996 and 2000. Most of these are well known as good, though there are a few examples of dry but not especially warm and sunny in there too.

There are just 5 from the period since (which is a somewhat shorter period of 23 years versus 30, but the contrast is quite stark): 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018, 2022.

Thus it's small wonder many of us who grew up in the late 20th century find contemporary summers poor!

Edited October 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Roger J Smith]

Today's updated CET (12.3) is close to 12.29 in two dec, yesterday was 10.0. Two full drops of 0.1 would require averages near 9 and we will likely be closer to 10, so I speculate one of final two days will drop and the other will not. Would take averages near 12 to keep the result at current 12.3. 

EWP is close to 160 mm now, looks likely to finish 165-170 mm. If 40 mm falls on 1-2 Nov from Ciaran, total for 3 Oct to 2 Nov would be very close to all-time record for Oct 1903 (or any Nov) above 200 mm (6 mm fell 1-2 Oct). I would need to dive into stats to find wettest 30 or 31 day interval on record but looking at Oct 1903 (no daily data, it started in 1931), can see from historical weather charts (available on wetterzentrale) that month started and ended with wet spells so taking parts of Sep 1903 or Nov 1903 probably would not increase that 31-day total. If you found Oct 2023 depressing the charts for Oct 1903 are really nasty, one deep Atlantic low after another slowly tracking into southern Britain. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 12.2C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 195.6mm 236.2% of the monthly average.

Well October is going to join the 200mm+ club and our wettest on record. Looks like we will finish on 11.9C +1.5C above average.

 

[Weather26]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 12.2C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 195.6mm 236.2% of the monthly average.

Well October is going to join the 200mm+ club and our wettest on record. Looks like we will finish on 11.9C +1.5C above average.

 

Thanks to more rain than forecast today!

[The PIT]

7 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Thanks to more rain than forecast today!

It's now a question of how much does it break the previous record of 198.1mm by.

[Weather-history]

The rainfall anomaly charts could be  interesting for this October when released. Southern Scotland is the only region that has recorded below average rainfall for this month. Could be this peculiar area that has been drier than average surrounded by wetness. Not sure how wet NW Scotland has been though. 

[The PIT]

Now the fourth wettest month on record here with 210.6mm of rain. More to come during the day and over night. The next wettest is Decemeber 2019 with 214.5mm which it should beat fairly easy..

[Roger J Smith]

 

Combined scoring for CET and EWP _ October 2023

Based on results of 12.1 C (CET) and 176.2 mm (EWP). Table will be adjusted again on 5 Nov if necessary as more precise EWP table results are known. 

CET ranks are not jogged for late entries (no best combined results were involved), but EWP scoring reflects late penalties.

 

Rank __ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ EWP rank  _ Combined ranks (top 30 are ranked)

 

_01 ___ 12.1 __ 98.0 _ summer18 ( 9 ) ___________________29 ____ 30 ___t8th best combined

_02 ___ 12.1 __ --- --- _ Typhoon John (10) _______________ ---

_03 ___ 12.1 _ 105.0 _ Frigid (56) ________________________ 24 ____ 27 ___ 5th best combined

 

_04 ___ 12.0 _ 120.0 _ summer8906 ( 7 ) ________________ 10 ____ 14 ___ best combined

_05 ___ 12.0 __ 70.0 _ The PIT (14) _______________________ 53 ____ 64

_06 ___ 12.2 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man (42) ________________ ---

_07 ___ 12.2 __ 93.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (44) _____ 33 ____ 40 ___t12th best combined

_08 ___ 12.2 __ --- --- _ damianslaw (48) _________________ ---

_09 ___ 12.3 _ 112.5 _ Bobd29 ( 5 ) ______________________ 17 ____ 26 ___ 4th best combined 

_10 ___ 12.3 _ 110.0 _ Weather Observer (37) ___________ 20 ____ 30 ___t8th best combined

_11 ___ 12.3 __ 92.0 _ MrMaunder (54) __________________ 34 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined

_12 ___ 11.9 _ 108.0 _ February 1978 (58) _______________ 21 ____ 33 ___ 11th best combined

_13 ___ 12.4 _ 137.5 _ Roger J Smith (18) __________________ 4 ____ 17 ___ 2nd best combined

_14 ___ 11.8 __ 77.0 _ sunny_vale (20) ____________________ 48 ____ 62 ___t28th best combined

_15 ___ 12.4 __ 91.0 _ dancerwithwings (25) ______________35 ____ 50 ___21st best combined

_16 ___ 12.4 _ 134.0 _ summer shower (32) _______________ 6 ____ 22 ___ 3rd best combined

_17 ___ 12.4 __ 88.0 _ Stationary Front (47) _______________40 ____ 57 ___24th best combined

_18 ___ 11.8 __ 95.0 _ metwatch (52) ______________________31 ____ 49 ___t19th best combined 

_(19) __ 12.5 __ 98.0 _ consensus __________________________(28)____44 __ (15th best combined)

_19 ___ 12.5 __ 95.0 _ Methuselah (17) ____________________ 30 ____49 ___t19th best combined 

_20 ___ 12.5 _ 131.0 _ Reef (21) ____________________________ 8 ____ 28 ___ 6th best combined

_21 ___ 12.5 __ 85.0 _ syed2878 (24) _______________________44 ___ 65 

_22 ___ 12.5 _ 133.0 _ Emmett Garland (35) _______________ 7 ____ 29 ____ 7th best combined

_23 ___ 12.5 __ --- --- _ Mark Bayley (38) ____________________---

_24 ___ 12.6 __ 81.0 _ Weather26 ( 1 ) ______________________45 ____ 69

_25 ___ 12.6 __ 88.0 _ seaside60 (41) _______________________37 ____ 62 ___ t28th best combined

_26 ___ 11.6 _ 116.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (49) ___________14 ____ 40 ____t12th best combined

_27 ___ 12.6 __ 88.0 _ Feb1991blizzard (53) ________________ 41 ____ 68

_28 ___ 11.6 _ 116.0 _ J 10 (57) ______________________________15 ____ 43 ____14th best combined

_29 ___ 11.5 _ 115.0 _ Jeff C ( 4 ) ____________________________ 16 ____ 45 ___t15th best combined

_30 ___ 12.7 __ 94.0 _ catbrainz (19) ________________________32 ____ 62 ___t28th best combined

_31 ___ 11.5 _ 175.0 _ AlexisJ9 (26) __________________________ 1 ____ 32 ____10th best combined

_32 ___ 12.7 __ 99.0 _ snowray (39) _________________________28 ____ 60 ___ 27th best combined

_33 ___ 11.5 _ 100.0 _ DR(S)NO (40) _________________________25 ____ 58 ___25th best combined 

_34 ___ 12.7 __ 90.0 _ somerset girl (55) ____________________36 

_35 ___ 12.7 __ 82.0 _ davehsug (L1-5) ______________________46

_36 ___ 12.8 __ 75.0 _ Wold Topper (15) ____________________ 50 

_37 ___ 12.8 _ 105.0 _ Midlands Ice Age (34) ________________22 ____ 59 ___26th best combined

_38 ___ 11.4 __ 57.0 _ daniel* (46) __________________________ 54

_39 ___ 11.4 _ 101.0 _ Moorlander (L1-1) ___________________ 26 ____ 65

_40 ___ 12.9 __ 52.0 _ TwisterGirl81 (16) ____________________ 56

_41 ___ 12.9 _ 127.1 _ Polar Gael (33) _______________________11 ____ 52 ____22nd best combined

_42 ___ 11.3 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-2) _____________---

_43 ___ 12.9 __ 80.0 _ leo97t (51) ____________________________47

_44 ___ 13.0 __ 55.0 _ B87 ( 6 ) ______________________________ 55

_45 ___ 13.0 _ 150.0 _ rwtwm (27) ___________________________ 3 ____ 48 ____t17th best combined

_46 ___ 13.0 _ 172.0 _ cryoraptorA303 (31) __________________ 2 ____ 48 ____t17th best combined

_47 ___ 13.0 _ 105.0 _ jonboy (36) ___________________________23  

_48 ___ 11.2 __ 75.0 _ Mulzy (43) ____________________________ 51  

_49 ___ 13.0 __ 75.0 _ Don (50) ______________________________ 52

_50 ___ 11.1 _ 137.0 _ Summer blizzard ( 2 ) _________________ 5  ___ 55 ____23rd best combined

_51 ___ 13.1 __ 99.0 _ mazelike (23) _________________________ 27

_52 ___ 13.1 __ 90.0 _ Matt Stoke (L1-3) _____________________ 38

(53) ___11.0 _ 106.1 mm __ mean for 1993-2022 ____________(21.7)

_53 ___ 13.2 __ 88.0 _ SteveB (L1-4) _________________________ 42

_54 ___ 13.3 _ 110.0 _ WYorksWeather (22) __________________19

_55 ___ 13.3 __ 45.0 _ AddicksFan1981 (28, 12.5) ____________ 57

(56) __10.8 _ 102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 ____________(24.5)

_56 ___ 13.4 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun (29) _____________________ ---

_57 ___ 13.5 _ 128.0 _ virtualsphere (11) _____________________ 10

(58) ___10.5 _ 104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 ____________(24.2)

 

_58 ___ 10.5 _ 120.0 _ stewfox (12) ____________________________13

_59 ___ 10.5 __ 88.0 _ Godber 1 (45) __________________________ 39

_60 ___ 13.9 __ 87.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 8 ) ______________________ 43

_61 ___ 14.0 _ 110.0 _ Earthshine ( 3 ) _________________________18

_62 ___ 10.1 _ 130.0 _ Chilly milly (13) _________________________ 9

_63 ___ 10.1 __ 77.0 _ NeilN (30) ______________________________ 49

_64 ___ 9.7 _ 96.4 _mean for all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766 to 2022)  __29.5

 

<<< 58 on-time forecasts, and five late by one day, 63 total; consensus 12.5 >>>

Table will be adjusted on Wed 1 Nov as final CET value is confirmed

Order of entry (in brackets after forecasters) breaks ties for errors in CET and EWP

Rankings for consensus and normals are equal to best rank at error level, but do not affect forecaster ranks.

======================================= <> [] <> =================================

EWP forecasts in order

175_Alexis .. 172_cryo .. 150_rwtwm .. 137.5_RJS .. 137_sb .. 134_SumSh .. 133_EG .. 131_Reef .. 130_cm ..

128_virt .. 127.1_PG .. 120_sum8906, stew .. 116_pSL, J10 .. 115_Jeff .. 112.5_bob .. 110_Earth,WYorks, WxOb ..

108_Feb78 ..106.1_93-22 .. 105_ MIA, jon, frig .. 104.1_81-20 .. 102.9_91-20 .. 101_Moor^.. 100_DR(S)NO ..

 99_ maze, snow ..  98_sum18 ..  96.4 all data .. 95_meth, met .. 94_cat .. 93_IRem .. 92_MrM .. 91_dww ..

 90_sg, matt^  .. 88_sea, godb, SF, Feb91, ste^ .. 87_shil .. 85_syed .. 82_dave^.. 81_wx26 .. 80_leo ..

 77_sv, NN .. 75_WT, Mul, Don .. 70_PIT .. 57_dan* .. 55_B87 .. 52_TG81 .. 45_Add ..

 

_ __ _ 57 forecasts, consensus 98.0 (four late by one day ^)

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Gosh, I hadn't checked what CET I went for, I could be spot on this month, first time since I can't recall when!

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 30th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Fairly happy with my CET guess of 11.8C.

However big difference on the rainfall part, I wasn't expecting another deluge of an October. I thought we would get a more drier one, but shouldn't be too surprising given the state of the sea surface temperatures and other teleconnections. Maybe next year we finally get a drier October, but that would be a complete guess to predict that.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12.2c to the 30th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

12.2C to be the final figure?  

[Roger J Smith]

Today's 12.2 update is likely around 12.23 or so, as yesterday's average was 10.6. There is a fair cushion available to absorb the next downward adjustment as a result, I believe it would require about 10.0 or lower to push the final result to 12.1 now.

[Frigid]

7 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Today's 12.2 update is likely around 12.23 or so, as yesterday's average was 10.6. There is a fair cushion available to absorb the next downward adjustment as a result, I believe it would require about 10.0 or lower to push the final result to 12.1 now.

Miracles can happen 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down 11.9C +1.5C above average. Rainfall 210.6mm 254.3% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

11.6 stays open for a second year of v2.0, as replacement for the old 5.9 missing from Dec (no longer missing). As CET legacy contained an 11.6 for Oct, it was only in 2022 and 2023 anyone was looking for 11.6 to come along, and it will seem like quite a statistical quirk in coming years if we don't see one, as October averages will probably be almost at 11.6 soon. 12.1 is also a current missing value; there is one 12.2 in v2.0 tables, 2017. It ranks 16th warmest so depending on decimals 2023 will probably appear as 17th warmest whether it finishes on 12.2 or 12.1. If 11.6 then happens in 2024, it would fall into 29th warmest. Every year after that, if 11.6 does not show up, it will fall one rank for every warmer (11.6+) October in future years. The old missing  5.9 for Dec now has three occurrences after v2.0 shifts, and those are 54th to 56th warmest in tables.

The current missing cold CET value closest to median is 1.1 C for February which would rank 28th coldest if it happened in 2024 or any future year unless a colder value occurred in the meantime. Second would be missing 3.8 in Nov ranking 20th coldest next time it occurs (possibly 4783 A.D. before Feb next sees 1.1 C, and both would no doubt be a few spots up table by then). Netweather members in 4783 can review my prognostications if not too busy with time travel etc. 

The current missing cold CET value closest to median for October is 6.8; any of 6.6, 6.7 or 6.8 would rank 5th coldest if they ever occur (odds are pretty low and could be more like 15,000 A.D. or on the slide into the next glacial period). 

If 11.6 appears for October the anomaly will migrate to may's missing 13.2 falling into 20th warmest place first time it does occur (plus any intervening warmer values, so if let's say it was 13.5 and 13.3 two years in future and 13.2 came along, it would be 22nd warmest. December's missing value is now all the way up to 7.0, even so that would be 15th warmest in 2023. 

[Relativistic]

12.1°C final figure

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

[Metwatch]

October 2023 is now the wettest on record for the central England region, with still one more day left to add up to the totals. Records go back to 1873.

EWP is at about 166mm.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

12.1°C final figure

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

Ah 0.1 above, thought I'd nailed it.

[Frigid]

4 hours ago, Metwatch said:

October 2023 is now the wettest on record for the central England region, with still one more day left to add up to the totals. Records go back to 1873.

EWP is at about 166mm.

It has been an awful month. Surprised how it beat 2000 and 2020, those are up there with some of the wettest on record. On the upside, looks like I was bang on with the CET .. same can't be said for the EWP.

Seems like every October recently has been incredibly wet. Last time we had an October EWP under 100mm was back in 2018.

[Roger J Smith]

CET and EWP ranking table above is adjusted for 12.1 ... congrats to summer18, Typhoon John and Frigid for picking winning CET  forecast, and top EWP forecasts are from cryoraptorA303 (172 mm) , AlexisJ9 (175 mm) and rwtwm (150 mm).

Best combined forecast is from summer8906 (ranks 4, 10), Roger J Smith was second (ranks 13, 4) and  summer shower was third (16, 6). 

Will post final EWP tracker value tomorrow, expect 170-172.