Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T168:

In the GFS camp on this one, or at least edging that way.

@Mike Poole For some reason I cannot access UKMO  T168  over hereat the moment. Can you post the 300mb flow for T168 ?

Cheers,

 C

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

@Mike Poole For some reason I cannot access UKMO  T168  over hereat the moment. Can you post the 300mb flow for T168 ?

Cheers,

 C

Hi, sorry, I can’t find that chart on Meteociel, I think UKMO has the most limited range of charts of all the models, just 500hPa heights and temps at 500hPa and 850hPa.

Link:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

Really hope the gfs and UKMO have got this . Mean while the gfs is still going for it at day 12

[Aiden2012]

Oohhhh gfs what are you doing to me , come on ecm

[ANYWEATHER]

Without putting to finer point on it ,gfs 12z is a cold lovers early winters dream ! What possibly go wrong!  Snaaaawww ,frost and everything else wintry thrown in ,even for the south.....Will be interesting what ecm has to say , but are we on a wild goose chase or being led up the garden path, we have been here many times before,  but IF these charts came off ,it would be an early Christmas presant for many.....❄

[snowray]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Really hope the gfs and UKMO have got this . Mean while the gfs is still going for it at day 12

Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts. 

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi, sorry, I can’t find that chart on Meteociel, I think UKMO has the most limited range of charts of all the models, just 500hPa heights and temps at 500hPa and 850hPa.

Link:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

 

OK THANKS. It will come through a bit later on the Wetterzentrale site .

 C

[That ECM]

More enes on board? Looks so to me. Again, not what I was expecting.

[sundog]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts. 

Would ground temperatures not need to fall alot for no snow melt? ( if there was snow about ). All the wettness in the ground would produce some latent heat also I presume. Need the ground to dry up somewhat over the next while.

[Cold Winter Night]

Would be nice to have these as the first charts of the meteorological winter:

One can dream!

I know, I know, it's as FI as can be, but I do notice a lot of available cold around, even at T-0h.
At least there is something we can potentially tap in to.

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

More enes on board? Looks so to me. Again, not what I was expecting.

There looks to be less weight to the Canada lobe of the vortex on the 12z mean there, this can only be a good trend, because, whether we get a cold shot out of this or not, what is also at stake is the state of the vortex upstream going into December - it would be very easy to see a burgeoning vortex there as the strat and trop potentially couple at this time of year, so any trend away from that happening will bode well for us later.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Mike Poole

[WeatherArc]

 100% will take this over what weve all had recently, lets see what the euro makes of all this.

[Aiden2012]

Why can I see the ecm coming on board and then the gfs climbing down

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,GFS /UKMO at 168 hrs mind blowing for all cold lovers,must be one of the best charts I have seen regarding GFS at this time of the year GEM/ ICON not on board so all eyes on ECM if it follows GFS/UKMO then this weather channel will crash.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, sundog said:

Would ground temperatures not need to fall alot for no snow melt? ( if there was snow about ). All the wettness in the ground would produce some latent heat also I presume. Need the ground to dry up somewhat over the next while.

Depends if the ground freezes if we get some ice days, and quantity of snowfall. The GFS keeps most of the ppn just clipping the coast on the 12z run, but if we saw some heavy snowfall could turn very cold in them slack easterly winds and cold uppers, particularly at night. Maybe a December 1981 re-run, when we saw lots of snow and extreme cold at times but upper air was not even particularly low.

[TSNWK]

This 12z was beautiful run to the end and it would all fallen apart if the low pressure at day 5 did not play ball.. the run was against what is expected from current teleconnections.. so I’m left wondering what value we should place upon them if they can negated by a relatively small low pressure behaviour.

or maybe the gfs is not playing in the teleconnections in correctly and what is progged on this 12z is worthless…

[SollyOlly]

12 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Why can I see the ecm coming on board and then the gfs climbing down

ha ha, I was just thinking that...!!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This 12z was beautiful run to the end and it would all fallen apart if the low pressure at day 5 did not play ball.. the run was against what is expected from current teleconnections.. so I’m left wondering what value we should place upon them if they can negated by a relatively small low pressure behaviour.

or maybe the gfs is not playing in the teleconnections in correctly and what is progged on this 12z is worthless…

The value to place on it imo is that it is another run and fi holds interest for coldies. We will see where it goes on future runs and enjoy these for now until they get in the reliable or bust.

[sheikhy]

Just got in and well well ukmo holds firm and gfs is a massive upgrade!!!will ecm turn early on!!!!45 mins and we shall find out....!!!!

[blizzard81]

I really do hope I'm wrong but I have to go with the ecm on this one. It is king of the shortwaves. 

[Dennis]

Good evening all 

be prepared for next week...... it can be a thriller in weathermodel land 

good weekend all

first we get a NE wind ,

 

and after......

 

but then is the main question for now 

 

[Met4Cast]

Unless the background drivers are broken & something else is driving this amplification I just can’t see how we end up with a Greenland high as per GFS suggestion. 

The forcing just isn’t there.. fascinating early season drama this! 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Unless the background drivers are broken & something else is driving this amplification I just can’t see how we end up with a Greenland high as per GFS suggestion. 

The forcing just isn’t there.. fascinating early season drama this! 

Could it be that perfect tripole in the atlantic?!!!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Could it be that perfect tripole in the atlantic?!!!

It’s weak at best, I can’t imagine that alone is enough to drive the pattern being shown by the GFS. 

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Unless the background drivers are broken & something else is driving this amplification I just can’t see how we end up with a Greenland high as per GFS suggestion. 

The forcing just isn’t there.. fascinating early season drama this! 

Indeed. I’ve posed a similar question on this.. maybe one of the teleconnections folk might be able to offer a view please?