Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Downburst]

Dew Points Thursday 6.00pm

 

 

Temps - 2 meter same time.

To put the cold into perspective the temp anomalies paint a good picture

Saturday midnight and widely 5 to 6 lower than climate average as the northerly sets up.

 

 

As others have said the next low in might bring chances. 

What is notable though is there seems to be a lot of high pressure knocking around, the end of the GFS going mad with a strong Scandi High, so always have a chance on these runs in FI. I think the entire winter will be like this. Who know's what the chaotic atmosphere might do mid to end December

Total SnowFall from start to finish of the 06Z means skiing in Scotland is back on the menu

With shooting season these guys are delighted with snow in the highlands

Edited November 27, 2023 by Downburst

[terrier]

8 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

This is exactly what i was saying yesterday would happen. More often than not the low will track further south and with winds going NE Yorkshire get pummelled with showers and steamers

Yeah think the north east the wash and Yorkshire could be in prime position for snow Thursday night into Friday morning. 

[andy989]

7 minutes ago, terrier said:

Yeah think the north east the wash and Yorkshire could be in prime position for snow Thursday night into Friday morning. 

I’ll happily sacrifice battleground snow this time for the low to go further south and dragging the colder air further down. 

[LRD]

All FI, of course, but there is a reduction in the members who go for 850s over +5 from the 6th Dec

0z

6z (not quite the full set)

Could be something or nothing. It's only subtle signs at this point and it's only 1 run but, if it's cold you're after, then that's a trend to watch out for

[bluearmy]

Ec 06z a tad further south 

[Mcconnor8]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 06z a tad further south 

Btw how do you see this before it comes out on the ECM control page on Meteociel? Setting up for a good round of 12z runs with the little adjustments south on the 6z runs.

[Jackski4]

Something I’ve learned the past few years on here is that these things usually correct well south of first indication. I know it sort of sucks for southern counties wanting snow on Thursday, but bigger picture it increases and prolongs the cold. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Btw how do you see this before it comes out on the ECM control page on Meteociel? Setting up for a good round of 12z runs with the little adjustments south on the 6z runs.

he's got weatherbell subscription

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Btw how do you see this before it comes out on the ECM control page on Meteociel? Setting up for a good round of 12z runs with the little adjustments south on the 6z runs.

Like an idiot I pay for something thats free in an hour ….

[TSNWK]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 06z a tad further south 

You got early insight.. only up to 18 hours on meteo

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, TSNWK said:

You got early insight.. only up to 18 hours on meteo

Tbf if you squint enough you can see the southwards adjustment at 18 hours haha

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Tbf if you squint enough you can see the southwards adjustment at 18 hours haha

Hehe.. not just me then…

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Like an idiot I pay for something thats free in an hour ….

yes - i tried one last jan but i couldn't continue it as i only have a basic account (no foreign payments allowed), glad i didn't though in the end, very limited improvements for the cost and difficult to navigate (sussed it during trial though), did have better GFS strat charts (instantweathermaps was flaky at the time)

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Like an idiot I pay for something thats free in an hour ….

So you know the score before the match is played for us mere mortals…., is that an hour early for all runs!

[Ali1977]

The latest METO forecast on YouTube does say they are paying close attention to that low pressure coming in from the SW on Thursday - I just wonder if the tables could start turning the other way - people say these low pressures move south with time - however there will defo be occasions where they also move north !! 

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The latest METO forecast on YouTube does say they are paying close attention to that low pressure coming in from the SW on Thursday - I just wonder if the tables could start turning the other way - people say these low pressures move south with time - however there will defo be occasions where they also move north !! 

Almost no chance with the Azores low going North towards the UK now with the ECM and UKMO constantly moving it South every run, the low they are referring to I believe is the low to the West of Ireland on Wednesday which swings to the South of the UK during Thursday and into Friday. This a different low to the one that GFS was modelling to hit the UK on Thursday morning which was the Azores Low so what they said in the video isn't related.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The latest METO forecast on YouTube does say they are paying close attention to that low pressure coming in from the SW on Thursday - I just wonder if the tables could start turning the other way - people say these low pressures move south with time - however there will defo be occasions where they also move north !! 

They're always behind the curve on these video forecasts, using model runs 12 hours old. 

[badgerhud]

If the low does track south here in Yorkshire we should get some decent snow showers

[Paul]

Locking this now - fresh thread here: