Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[AdrianHull]

Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment

After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by AdrianHull

[Ali1977]

The GFS mean still looks ok for the south on Thursday, and lots of snow showers packing into the east on Friday.  If the GEFS mean shows snow that’s a pretty strong signal at this stage - you’d think ️

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[Shaunado]

The precipitation forecast on the Met Office app is increasingly turning this week's low into a Friday Kent Clipper.

Also showing snow symbols for my location, although they stress a lot of uncertainty in their text forecast in the northward extent of this low and still suggesting snow only for the higher hills.

Time will tell...

[Marting]

ECM ensembles appear to have actually improved (for cold fans) this morning looking at the average points.

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

Martin

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GFS mean still looks ok for the south on Thursday, and lots of snow showers packing into the east on Friday.  If the GEFS mean shows snow that’s a pretty strong signal at this stage - you’d think ️

Yes, looks like Friday will see some snow showers move in from the North Sea as the colder air spread SE across most of the British Isles . At this stage the Low  progged over Brest Peninsula  may only affect the far south of the British Isles. Longer term, big difference between ECM and GFS . The ECM shows a renewed bout of amplification whereas GFS having none of this and blows up a big Mid- Atlantic Low.  Can anyone show the 300mb jet profile chart issued by UKMO at 168T ?

 

c

[Nick2373]

8 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment

After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days

 

The return to something just above average as been showing daily on numerous runs which ties in with some forecasting and many have been discussing along with the upcoming cold spell the prospect of such conditions.  

[ICE COLD]

16 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

The return to something just above average as been showing daily on numerous runs which ties in with some forecasting and many have been discussing along with the upcoming cold spell the prospect of such conditions.  

Not on the ECM ens , below average for the next 10 days . 

[Ali1977]

T150, EC Control looks cold and I’d say quite unstable so sleet/snow possible in places 

[CoventryWeather]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not on the ECM ens , below average for the next 10 days . 

Clusters are a bit meh this morning, possibly a slight increase in members going a bit zonal this morning compared to previous days. Can't post charts, sorry. 

[sheikhy]

Theres no downgrades this morning!!and also if there was any models showing the cold lasting longer it would be ukmo and ecm as my pick over the gfs so we are in a good position this morning!!

[Beanz]

9 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:

Nah snow for me and many others hopefully 

I’m not sure about that, it’s definitely more likely to be rain. 

[AdrianHull]

25 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

The return to something just above average as been showing daily on numerous runs which ties in with some forecasting and many have been discussing along with the upcoming cold spell the prospect of such conditions.  

You must be referring to the GFS ? UKMO and ECM haven't showed "above average" temperature for days now. If you're just referring to your own back yard then that's not a representation of what the general outlook is throughout the UK

[IanT]

34 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment

After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days

 

I think that is a misrepresentation. Of course there is always a return to milder conditions, but many of the optimistic predictions of cold/wintry weather were time-bound - that is they related to a specific date or period. If cold/wintry is now not forecast for that period, then those who expressed scepticism with respect to the original forecasts were correct.

[Dennis]

Good EC real good

 

[Rayth]

On 24/11/2023 at 13:06, Ali1977 said:

It’s a 6 day cold spell (atleast) and that chart is for Cardiff (conscious that’s near your gaff) which struggles to get cold at the best of times - yes in FI it looks to get less cold on this run - but that’s FI !! Hoping for upgrades once the cold arrives, but you can’t say how bad it is because Cardiff isn’t getting deep cold and snow - it’s like the tropics of the U.K there

Go further North and East and its a 10 day cold spell , at least !

 

[ScottSnow]

If all the models were in agreement all of the time, we would have nothing to talk about.

Things are still looking positive. GFS is known to be overly progressive at times and we still seem to keep high pressure to our north which always gives us a chance.

My opinion is that we will see this current spell last until around the 8th Dec before a relaxation and then renewed cold later in December.

Some areas will see snow this week but it’s unlikely to be widespread.

[tight isobar]

Morning- taking two of the mains raws/gfs/ecmwf. And noting there ens, you can see that after the initial cold that is more or less nailed out to 4/5 December that the gfs could well be being far to progressive in wanting of default mode ie- a more mobile pattern.however scrolling through the gefs 500 geo pots- even that looks a short lived transition- b4 rotating bk to a more blocked pattern soon thereafter… And that’s even if “ as said” that sync gets there in the 1st offing?!..@milder incursion. So all in all things looking fairly decent.   And lots to be unraveled b4 then going forward… Anyway as per it’s over to the nxt suites for evolution/ development.

[TauntonRoss]

I personally think the cold will last well into next week with maybe a slight breakdown before more chances at the end of the month, the charts are struggling with Thursday let alone after that really.

[blizzard81]

Nothing too much has changed in the ecm ens this morning. The last few suites have shown a split in the long run between those going milder and those maintaining the cold. You can see this on the debilt ens. 

[DIS1970]

Could still be rain/sleet/wet snow/snow when and if it reaches my location unless you're at a higher elevation then more then likely snow. Just don't be too disappointed when you're wishes aren't what you hoped for - winter has barely set foot yet.

[Nick2373]

25 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

You must be referring to the GFS ? UKMO and ECM haven't showed "above average" temperature for days now. If you're just referring to your own back yard then that's not a representation of what the general outlook is throughout the UK

  

Other areas around the UK All currently showing the increase to just above average, so not just the south of the UK, The North keeps the cold just below but that's a normal winter in the UK.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Nick2373

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Nick2373 said:

  

Other areas around the UK All currently showing the increase to just above average, so no just the south of the UK. 

There’s an awful lot of scatter there highlighting the doubt.

[Metwatch]

UKV still showing showers from the north sea further north and east from the Midlands and the larger area of precipitation/snow clipping Kent and Essex. 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Metwatch

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There’s an awful lot of scatter there highlighting the doubt.

I don't think there's much doubt to a return of something around seeing close to average or above there trend as been there for numerous runs the last few days. 

[ANYWEATHER]

22 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well it feels like Winter outside ,grey ,damp and temps just above freezing .  As regards Thursdays developments, personally I think it will be a southern affair, and it may be with time that any precipitation may be further south with time , but interesting nontheless and if the models are barking up the right snowman, than some places will do very well out of this setup......

Well as my thoughts from yesterday morning,  looks as though the snow risk is deminishing with time sinking south although there is the caveat that gfs may still be in for a fighting chance...