Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

The Atlantic is running up against the block to the NE on the 06z and the trough to the west looks like disrupting under it - good to see.

Indeed so Purga. 

Gfs picks up Ecm's Scandi high idea and runs with it forcing the low to disrupt.

[terrier]

42 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

As expected the low looks increasingly likely to miss the UK entirely; 

Looks good to me lots of showers packing in off the North Sea. I’ve seen streamers set up from this set up which has dumped lots of snow in this part of the country

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im strong

Nice to see for sure , again FI and very different from the 0z, which isn't a surprise 

[NewEra21]

Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while.

So imo the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.

Edited November 27, 2023 by NewEra21

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im strong

Du vil få snø selv i det mest ugunstige oppsettet Dennis.

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while.

So I’m o the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold in and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.

Yes the positioning of the low on Thurs is the key, more South and we stay cold for longer as it allows the block to build stronger towards Greenland. It is looking almost certain that it will go through France now.

[Sunsetglimmer]

Looks like a favoured return to mild Atlantic conditions after a chilly few days going by the ensembles 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Du vil få snø selv i det mest ugunstige oppsettet Dennis.

Come again Feb?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Come again Feb?

You will get snow even in the most unfavourable setup Dennis

[TSNWK]

Just now, Sunsetglimmer said:

Looks like a favoured return to mild Atlantic conditions after a chilly few days going by the ensembles 

Which set 00z or 06z ?

[Chrisover93]

1 minute ago, Sunsetglimmer said:

Looks like a favoured return to mild Atlantic conditions after a chilly few days going by the ensembles 

Which set 

[sundog]

9 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while.

So imo the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.

100% . I just want it the hell out of the way to our south. 

[shadowfax]

We have snow flakes and it’s settled on the tops at about 1400ft asl

[LRD]

13 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Which set 

Dunno if that's a rhetorical question but the GFS suite (0z) sees a definitive return to average or just above

ECM ensembles much less convinced

Edited November 27, 2023 by LRD

[Frostbite80]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Dunno if that's a rhetorical question but the GFS suite sees a definitive return to average or just above

ECM ensembles much less convinced

Lets see what the 6z ensembles show, hopefully a few colder runs in there.

[Met4Cast]

Worth noting MOGREPS-G isn't entirely interested in letting the cold go either;

Ensembles in the extended are likely to be struggling just as much as the deterministic run so I'd not be surprised to see a sudden and more definitive switch to one solution or another as they resolve what the Atlantic lows do. It does seem a return to less cold is the most likely outcome post 05th December but that's largely to be expected given the drop in tropical momentum & the recent passing of the MJO through phase 1, 2 and into 3. We'll then see AAM tendency rise again as the MJO progression continues, again supporting Atlantic weather at this time of year, at least initially. 

We'd have to get extremely lucky with another perfectly timed wave-break to throw up another block/reinforce the weakening one we have but currently, that doesn't look likely, not off the table entirely, but unlikely. 

As the MJO then cycles through phases 6/7 mid-late month in the context of +ve AAM, we could start to see some very interesting patterns being modelled late Dec/early January, this still remains the key period of interest for me.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Met4Cast

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, LRD said:

Dunno if that's a rhetorical question but the GFS suite (0z) sees a definitive return to average or just above

ECM ensembles much less convinced

I’m liking that, there’s actually a cluster that seems to start lowering temperatures!! That along with the MOGREPS that met4cast posted keeps the longevity chance alive - very interesting 12zs coming - and I also hope to see more widespread snow chances showing up on Friday as the models get to grips with it, should that Thurs low not head back north again!! 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[Mcconnor8]

14 minutes ago, LRD said:

Dunno if that's a rhetorical question but the GFS suite (0z) sees a definitive return to average or just above

ECM ensembles much less convinced

As GFS is still catching up on the position of the low compared to UKMO/ECM I would put less weight in its ensembles compared to ECM currently, I think it will delay the mild return a couple more days to line up with ECM.

19 minutes ago, sundog said:

100% . I just want it the hell out of the way to our south. 

The UKMO 06z HD run shows another slight correction South compared to the 0z run.

[Ali1977]

I still feel Thursday could have more snow showers/features/troughs associated with this set up - It just doesn’t scream a dry looking chart - it’s definitely cold enough, and maybe something that’ll start showing up by this evening!! 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I still feel Thursday could have more snow showers/features associated with this set up - It just doesn’t scream a dry looking chart - it’s definitely cold enough, and maybe something that’ll start showing up by this evening!! 

Friday has a higher risk than Thursday in my opinion, this is what the UKMO has, I think the low will be further south than that GFS on Thursday. 

[Ali1977]

JMA is showing lots and lots of shower activity coming in Thurs night into Friday off the North Sea. Clutching straws though pulling the JMA out

[BartyHater]

48 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Yes the positioning of the low on Thurs is the key, more South and we stay cold for longer as it allows the block to build stronger towards Greenland. It is looking almost certain that it will go through France now.

I'm certain its not safe to use the word certain....that's another 'c' word we should all try to avoid in here.

[MJB]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

JMA is showing lots and lots of shower activity coming in Thurs night into Friday off the North Sea. Clutching straws though pulling the JMA out

And I'm bang in the middle of the green patch, JMA has to be the leader in this ..............................surely 

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Friday has a higher risk than Thursday in my opinion, this is what the UKMO has, I think the low will be further south than that GFS on Thursday. 

Ukmo 06z has also corrected a little further south 

probably have full agreement on the track of the low by tomorrows 12z - that’s not to say the models will be correct even at T48! 

[Hatewarmth]

1 hour ago, terrier said:

Looks good to me lots of showers packing in off the North Sea. I’ve seen streamers set up from this set up which has dumped lots of snow in this part of the country

This is exactly what i was saying yesterday would happen. More often than not the low will track further south and with winds going NE Yorkshire get pummelled with showers and steamers