Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not likin the 18z at 114 hours!starting to become a bit of a concern!!

yes - scrap that last comment, not looking good now this run

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The low coming in from the SW is even further north than the 12z which was even further north than the 06z. It's bringing mild air into the UK before it's even phased with the energy coming down from Iceland.

 

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z GFS - actually it looks better - its one of those rare occasions where further East regarding Icelandic troughing is better, because on previous run it pulls down too far west, this time yo actually want it to engage more with scandi troughing so it can pull it East, where as usually that is not the case.

Go figure

[sheikhy]

Startin to think the ops are leading the way on this one unfortunately!

[Ali1977]

I’m also liking the fact the lower heights around Poland are further south - might help clear the trough south quicker and get us back in an easterly!!  Maybe a mild day or 2 before getting back into the cold air 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[Guest]

Much milder 18z GFS

ensembles will be interesting.

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Startin to think the ops are leading the way on this one unfortunately!

Agreed… higher resolution and moreensembles followed the 12z than the 06z

[Metwatch]

All the northern blocking and it still goes tits up, only in the UK

More time and runs needed still to figure how it will all play out.

[Ali1977]

I’m disagreeing here, much better run coming. Nice heights holding around Scandy and trough around Poland not getting dragged north 

[Guest]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m disagreeing here, much better run coming. Nice heights holding around Scandy and trough around Poland not getting dragged north 

Yes, you are back on a day 10 wild goose chase

[Met4Cast]

I'll wait for the ensembles. GFS det is poor, doesn't matter how you sugar coat it the GFS keeps blowing that low up.

[Kasim Awan]

Now looking probable that a phase of milder air will push up from the South.

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m disagreeing here, much better run coming. Nice heights holding around Scandy and trough around Poland not getting dragged north 

Good run if you like cold rain and 1000m+ freezing levels.

[MJB]

Most were disappointed with the ECM op until they saw the mean and the ENS 

Please don't react over one GFS OP run 

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

I'll wait for the ensembles. GFS det is poor, doesn't matter how you sugar coat it the GFS keeps blowing that low up.

Mind you, last December it kept trying to predict that a potential cold spell would be messed up by guiding a hurricane all the way across the Atlantic right on top of the UK. It did that for days. Then it didn't.

[sheikhy]

Such a shame if it happens the way its shown!!cos apart from the ops all other ensembles look great!!big morning coming up!!

[BartyHater]

The 18GFS absolutely screams ‘thank god I didn’t tell friends and family again this time, I must be wising up at last’

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Most were disappointed with the ECM op until they saw the mean and the ENS 

Please don't react over one GFS OP run 

It’s the 3rd consecutive op today with that low blowing up…each run has impacted us little more and there more ensembles following the 12z the 06z.

[Dennis]

EC zonal 23-11 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, jam said:

and you are here for?

 

Mild and dry weather

[Sweatyman]

Just now, Dennis said:

EC zonal 23-11 

Dennis please explain to this thick one

[Mark wheeler]

10 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Much milder 18z GFS

ensembles will be interesting.

Don't worry , the cold is on it's way , no 18z run will change that for me

[Metwatch]

No surprise there, Scotland gets all the fun as the milder airmass struggles to fully reach the north.

[Dennis]

a note to my earlier charts

still the scandiHigh has some hope in the next runs 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

EC zonal 23-11 

 

Just now, Sweatyman said:

Dennis please explain to this thick one

SSW unlikely before Jan - not hugely surprising though.

[Liam J]

GFS 18z off to a good start…. no denying the backing away today from an easterly. It may just be the op runs but they can’t be dismissed. Once the operationals sniff something out we’ve seen ensemble suits flip in the past, hopefully not on this occasion….

 

[Ali1977]

Wouldn’t take much to change this for the better - lots to resolve!!