Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 seems have gone -NAO suddenly 

yesterdays

But that’s this week NWS 

all this does is show that the model is not to be relied upon for week 1!  In all seriousness, the variation above or below no signal on nao is marginal either way.  We shouldn’t be using the ec46 for week 1  in any case 

 

what is noticeable is week 2 where it’s lost high height anoms to the west whereas the ec 12 run has them for the same 7 day period

 

 

[lorenzo]

NWP is nowhere near the correct solution yet... lots of changes ahead.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

That works.... pinks top left and greens to our south east..  week 2 as well.  So ecm day 10 will hopefully improve from middle this week

[feb1991blizzard]

First -15er to come out, give me more of these, this is when the buzz starts to kick in for me, them slushy deposits don't cut it.

[MJB]

45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

For the first time EC46 goes for below average temps week commencing 8th Jan

Chocolate tea cup carries more weight than that thing, absolute useless last year, follow it at your peril, that's 15 days away, there isnt a model in the land that can forecast at that range 

[Decemberof2010]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First -15er to come out, give me more of these, this is when the buzz starts to kick in for me, them slushy deposits don't cut it.

Immense. Fully agree. There’s your pipe burster Feb. That’s why I took my bat and ball home when this thread was buzzing over a North Westerly slush fest. This is when I start to get a tad excited. Granted it’s only one and we need these to appear more frequently. 

Out of interest what would the temp on the ground be under that? 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Immense. Fully agree. There’s your pipe burster Feb. That’s why I took my bat and ball home when this thread was buzzing over a North Westerly slush fest. This is when I start to get a tad excited. Granted it’s only one and we need these to appear more frequently. 

Out of interest what would the temp on the ground be under that? 

difficult to be precise but -5c max temps, nightime anywhere between -5c and -15c depending on location wind speed and cloud and snow cover.

Edited December 24, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Decemberof2010]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

difficult to be precise but -5c max temps, nightime anywhere between -5c and -15c depending on location wind speed and cloud

Roll it on a day and look at this. Wow. 
Sadly it’s just one member that’s 372 hours away so it’s just a dream. But I love looking at charts like this 

 

[Kasim Awan]

The problem is the atmosphere changes / forecasts change so ofcourse posts are going to change day by day. This is better than sticking with the wrong outlook just to look consistent.

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Roll it on a day and look at this. Wow. 
Sadly it’s just one member that’s 372 hours away so it’s just a dream. But I love looking at charts like this 

 

Similar looking chart in January 87.max temp - 6 in a moderate easterly and heavy snow

[TSNWK]

17 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Immense. Fully agree. There’s your pipe burster Feb. That’s why I took my bat and ball home when this thread was buzzing over a North Westerly slush fest. This is when I start to get a tad excited. Granted it’s only one and we need these to appear more frequently. 

Out of interest what would the temp on the ground be under that? 

Week 2 Jan 87.. highs around -5 for most lake effect snowbands... drifting... 

If that perb verified it would be a benchmark for coldies that would see most of us out! 

[bluearmy]

11 hours ago, That ECM said:

Umm

[WYorksWeather]

 

The SSW signal is still there, mostly unchanged from the last couple of runs. The pattern looks to be a strengthening vortex back to typical levels by the end of the year, then a sharp fall in strength. Uncertainty will probably reduce as the vortex strength reaches its peak and then starts to fall away, so around the turn of the New Year.

I really do feel like we're looking at what may be the most crucial chase of the entire winter. If we see a weak vortex but it doesn't cross over that line to major SSW status, we could well just bump along with yet another mild, wet and windy winter (though not ruling out colder zonality and brief cold snaps). A major SSW, though, could deliver what we've all been waiting for, and what has been signalled by some of the seasonal models for quite some time.

[Big Gally]

merry Christmas ya filthy animal.

[Eagle Eye]

Last post of the night from me,  merry Christmas guys

Proper reversal with a split and none of the split over Europe at the end of the run. Pretty much what I thought could happen if things went right. Now we've gotta keep getting runs similar to this and then for it to happen and who knows. A very good sign for now. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[swfc]

Slightly better gfs 18z at 144/150 hr mark. Pressure to the ssw not as strong and lower heights to the south. Al caveats but its there

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Slightly better gfs 18z at 144/150 hr mark. Pressure to the ssw not as strong and lower heights to the south. Al caveats but its there

Certainly keeps the chance of a midlands snow event alive for next weekend 

[blizzard81]

38 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

merry Christmas ya filthy animal.

Your post actually made me LOL! Brilliant ❄❄

[Big Gally]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Your post actually made me LOL! Brilliant ❄❄

I leave the real stuff up to the pro’s in here. I just like to bring some cheer lol.. Fingers crossed we all get some proper winter weather soon enough. Merry Christmas ️️️

[cheshire snow]

@Ali1977 Indeed this was for the Members in the midlands at day Seven.

[swfc]

If you look north east of svalbard on the gfs 18z on the nhp then switch to the 10hpa strat its pretty impressive

[TSNWK]

Might be a tad chilly as the energy out west slides south east over us and unlocks real cold to our north east.. jet looks ok to do do..

let’s see…..

 

 

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Might be a tad chilly as the energy out west slides south east over us and unlocks real cold to our north east.. jet looks ok to do do..

let’s see…..

 

 

Look way nne ie pressure rise and heighths rising in the Atlantic. Ive screenshot the 7th, ive got a feeling thats the timeframe for change, hopefully

Edited December 24, 2023 by swfc

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Might be a tad chilly as the energy out west slides south east over us and unlocks real cold to our north east.. jet looks ok to do do..

let’s see…..

 

 

Pub run doing its usual fast track to cold. Reason for optimism at the moment but this run is too soon with the goodies. 

[Met4Cast]

4 hours ago, johncam said:

Hope your right , but for me the optimum time for Snow is mid December to Mid Jan , low sun long nights , different times now so need to be really cold for snow to lie, can't quickly turn into a slushfest. Fingers crossed.

The 2018 BFTE showed that late snow can still very much deliver..