Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of ens going for some kind of Blocking around the NE..not very often you would get this amount of numbers heading this way! So it interests me. The ones that go full on scandy High with strong PV towards the NW I doubt...yes we can see one of them being propped up by LoW Heights....but with that amount of power over Greenland I'm sure it would quickly get eroded!

On a positive note blocking and significant cold as been in place around Scandinavia for nigh on a month,and it may not be a very easy task to shift it! We don't want the Atlantic powering up through the UK and disembling that block there. We don't want to see a major surge of cold out of Canada into the States and again powering up that jet. We need to keep it fragmented and further South. 

Basically the upcoming spell is intriguing....for that amount of cold to be in place for so long is pretty remarkable at such an early part of late Autumn. Another reason why I feel this Winter looks different.

[Battleground Snow]

Is that the first -9 of the season I spy close to east Anglia.

Be great if disturbances pop up at short notice on Friday.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Is that the first -9 of the season I spy close to east Anglia.

Be great is disturbances pop up at short notice on Friday.

Hmmm forget -9 i see a -10 on the far right!!bring it to me!!!!is it an upgrade on the 00z so far mate?!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Hmmm forget -9 i see a -10 on the far right!!bring it to me!!!!is it an upgrade on the 00z so far mate?!

Haha perhaps a tiny one, I'm interested to see how much blocking is retained around Greenland at 144 on the 12z runs

[Paul]

As we have a fresh thread up and running, just a quick reminder that the model highlights thread is crowd-sourced. Please use the 'insightful' reaction on posts you think should be highlighted - when enough people mark a post as insightful, it'll be automatically copied over there. 

This is the insightful reaction:

And the highlights thread is here:

 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Haha perhaps a tiny one, I'm interested to see how much blocking is retained around Greenland at 144 on the 12z runs

Let me know the control run pans out then!!!just on my deliveries!!!4 degrees and rain!!horrible!!

[booferking]

The Thursday low will be hitting morocco if it adjusts any further souththe south has no chance of that low hitting but will see snow shower activity once the Easterly winds set in.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the mogreps 6z ens have trended a tad colder..even for the far SW..encouraging signs perhaps.

[Mcconnor8]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I think the mogreps 6z ens have trended a tad colder..even for the far SW..encouraging signs perhaps.

Was expected with the slight Azores low south adjustment on the UKMO 06z compared to the 0z, the track of the Azores low is by far the key factor in increasing the Greenland blocking and therefore longevity of the cold.

If it tracks further North then it begins interacting with the low to the West of Ireland on Thursday morning and this makes the low deepen significantly which hinders the blocking into Greenland.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Darren bet pointing out the Low most likely staying South and a chance of much colder air moving in from scandy towards the weekend! And we all know Darren loves the mild. Keep the low away and let's get some proper cold in I say.

[Jacob]

[AdrianHull]

In grand scheme of things personally I like seeing that low go further south as it has opened up the UK for a much colder solution which will work out better in the long run.

Won't be looking at any snowfall charts until the day before if this pattern pans out as they would only be picked up in the shortest of time frames with accuracy.

Edited November 27, 2023 by AdrianHull

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I think the mogreps 6z ens have trended a tad colder..even for the far SW..encouraging signs perhaps.

There's some extremely cold runs there on 1.5m temp lots of ice days and absolutely baltic at night.

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I think the mogreps 6z ens have trended a tad colder..even for the far SW..encouraging signs perhaps.

Yep.. all appears to have dropped a degree or so with far less scatter except plymouth

[northwestsnow]

It seems all things being equal the lows to the west will end up south of the UK which means we will then be relying on showers / troughs in the Easterly flow ( Thurs/ Fri)..

We then look at ssts / upper air temps/ pressure etc etc etc..

 

 

[iceman1991]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Darren bet pointing out the Low most likely staying South and a chance of much colder air moving in from scandy towards the weekend! And we all know Darren loves the mild. Keep the low away and let's get some proper cold in I say.

Yes sir 

[iceman1991]

If we can get Eastley winds on weekend where the sea temperatures are still warm will that be like lake effect snow so to speak when that cold air blows over ? 

[Jacob]

Looks like even the SE could get ice days 

[MP-R]

Just now, iceman1991 said:

If we can get Eastley winds on weekend where the sea temperatures are still warm will that be like lake effect snow so to speak when that cold air blows over ? 

Wintry mix most likely for the immediate 10-15 miles inland, best chance of snow further inland before the showers evaporate.

[NewEra21]

I think we’re seeing why it’s so vital to get that low to stay as far south as possible on Thursday now, it brings in deeper cold and then let’s see where we go from next weekend onwards.

I know some were hoping for snow from it, and I understand that as we’re all so snow starved in this country. But I feel that would have been sacrificing any potential longevity of this spell.

Things can still go very wrong of course, but this low going south and missing the UK gives us the best chance going forward imo.

[Jacob]

[AdrianHull]

16 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

If we can get Eastley winds on weekend where the sea temperatures are still warm will that be like lake effect snow so to speak when that cold air blows over ? 

The uppers would have to 13 degrees less than the surface water temperature as a rule of thumb

Edited November 27, 2023 by AdrianHull

[Jacob]

One possibility in the long term is that we could get proper cold in December but we get stuck under high pressure which leaves us with getting cold weather but no snow which would be a disappointment 

[Jacob]

One question, how low do uppers have to be to get ice days? I'm quite new to this as you can see by my rank

[TauntonRoss]

Just now, Jacob said:

One possibility in the long term is that we could get proper cold in December but we get stuck under high pressure which leaves us with getting cold weather but no snow which would be a disappointment 

I personally don't see much of an attack from the Atlantic incoming, think it'll stay either cold or very cold...plenty of chance for snow, especially further East and Central areas.