Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

You can see how much better the run would be later on if the arpege ran on to 180 like the icon, huge difference at 114

That’s the best Greeny high around day 7/8 fir a few days - could be a massive upgrade this afternoon

[Snowy L]

20 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's definitely possible for some last minute increases in the flow structure however as it stands the flow looks very weak given the strength of the blocking to our north west. It's a result of the low weakening to our South. 

Half agree, it's a bit better than last December at least, which was pretty much no flow.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Half agree, it's a bit better than last December at least, which was pretty much no flow.

Depends where you lived, some places had lying snow for 7 days and ice days for most of them , and about -12c!! 

[BartyHater]

GFS has finally dropped its ridiculous deepening of Thursday low, but it does suggest at least some moisture will still arrive across Cornwall and Devon in particular early in the day, perhaps turning to sleet or wet snow even way down there before it eventually clears.

[Daniel*]

Short term upgrades on GFS more meaningful blocking into Greenland and colder T850s, it appears on Friday any precip will fall as snow. 

[feb1991blizzard]

This GFS looks potentially more snowier to me with  the shortwave over Scotland.

[Paul]

There are a few 'will it snow in....' or 'what will the weather be like' type questions appearing, but unfortunately this isn't the thread for them. Best spot for those discussions is over in the regional groups:

https://community.netweather.tv/clubs/

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Depends where you lived, some places had lying snow for 7 days and ice days for most of them , and about -12c!! 

Even then it was just 1 day of falling snow for those few lucky enough to even have a snow event. For a 10-14 day cold spell that's awful. 2010 was a snow event per day pretty much when I was in Leeds. December 2022 was an enormous waste of potential given the synoptics.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Snowy L

[Ali1977]

UKMO is way better at T72 over Greenland compared to the GFS - that’s a strong looking block 

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO is way better at T72 over Greenland compared to the GFS - that’s a strong looking block 

UKMO 72 hours is an upgrade on the 0z

[Hoghtonwhite]

Right now. It really is difficult to accept low lying areas that are situated on a latitude more south than us, receiving widespread heavy snowfall. I really hope we can get some white stuff on the ground by the end of the week! 

[Ali1977]

By T96 the UKMO is way colder/snowier looking than the GFS with a stronger easterly ️️️️️

Just now, Ali1977 said:

By T96 the UKMO is way colder/snowier looking than the GFS with a stronger easterly ️️️️️

UKMO looks even better in this view 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

By T96 the UKMO is way colder/snowier looking than the GFS with a stronger easterly ️️️️️

would like to see uppers on that UKM96 - could be some backdoor mildness being scooped up on the right flank of the trough over us.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO big upgrade since this morning in terms of Greenland heights, T96 v 0z T108:

The low south of England shallower.

[Allseasons-Si]

Very good UKMO at 120

way better than the gfs at the same time...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

By T96 the UKMO is way colder/snowier looking than the GFS with a stronger easterly ️️️️️

This run seems to be going with what the Beeb said earlier..much colder from the NE..better and stronger heights around the NW..Keep in mind the met update would have been written before this UKMO run..wouldn't be suprised to see an upgrade in the text tomorrow...early doors but so far so good with some of these runs.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

would like to see uppers on that UKM96 - could be some backdoor mildness being scooped up on the right flank of the trough over us.

Looks like they’ll still be -6c or colder - and probably creating lots more snow showers/streamers from the east 

[Snowy L]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Very good UKMO at 120

way better than the gfs at the same time...

Would hope the GFS still gets there with the next low as it's already looking very disrupted.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Very good UKMO at 120

way better than the gfs at the same time...

To me that looks really really cold - with severe frosts !! Huge upgrade , needs some ECM support now. 

[bluearmy]

Ukmo day 5 has lost some of the momentum east to west to cut off the greeny ridge and likely another push of colder air across nw europe 

should also assist to keep the jet further south as it lessens the likelihood of west based neg NAO

Edited November 27, 2023 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 5 has lost the momentum east to west to cut off the greeny ridge and likely another push of colder air across nw europe 

should also assist to keep the jet further south as it lessens the likelihood of west based neg NAO

Do you think there’s more convection on this chart ? It would be nice to get a little snow cover to help those nights become even colder !! 

[booferking]

That low Saturday @120hr looks to be sliding further south run by run this could turn into a highly potential cold spell ukmo look absolutely baltic.

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

That low Saturday @120hr looks to be sliding further south run by run this could turn into a highly potential cold spell ukmo look absolutely baltic.

Yep will slide under the UK at +144, what a brilliant run this is, cold spell locked in to mid next week at least I think now, and could be longer.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[Ali1977]

Awesome T144 from the UKMO, likely freezing day times over the U.K. in that !! Jet steel staying way below the U.K. , just need another bit of WAA from the Atlantic towards Greeny now

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[booferking]

Lol look at the Northern hemisphere vortex is busted crazy chart for the start of December.

Edited November 27, 2023 by booferking