South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, nettie said:

I'm up for a bit of huffing and puffing if needs be ( chose my words very carefully  then )  trying to contain myself and not mention it to any of the family.

*SNIGGER*

[nettie]

 

50 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’ve been putting this in mad thread on numerous occasions. One was on the 22nd other is now. Doesn’t always pan out and may not still but back then this was a strong signal. Worth doing as it’s interesting to see how it progresses. 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

*SNIGGER*

I knew would get it

 

53 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’ve been putting this in mad thread on numerous occasions. One was on the 22nd other is now. Doesn’t always pan out and may not still but back then this was a strong signal. Worth doing as it’s interesting to see how it progresses. 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

[nettie]

Sorry not sure what I did there

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, nettie said:

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

I knew would get it

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

Yes. What the two are showing is the ridge. Now for that to be shown on the 22nd was unusual. Now today it’s still there. They are mean charts, the average of them all. Not overly useful if we get it down to the reliable as it’s tricky to see details. Hopefully still there in a few days then we can start looking at detail although wrt to any snow potential then no more than 48 hours as a small move can make big differences. hope that makes sense.

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, nettie said:

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

I knew would get it

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

What confusion.

[Dorsetbred]

30 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What confusion.

That's a classic pick a model , pick an outcome.

[nettie]

56 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes. What the two are showing is the ridge. Now for that to be shown on the 22nd was unusual. Now today it’s still there. They are mean charts, the average of them all. Not overly useful if we get it down to the reliable as it’s tricky to see details. Hopefully still there in a few days then we can start looking at detail although wrt to any snow potential then no more than 48 hours as a small move can make big differences. hope that makes sense.

So if they are still showing the same  in a few days time we can start saying its definitely going to be cold ?  I understand  that snow can't  really be predicted  until nearer the time .   Always mixed reactions in mad thread I find myself trying to concentrate on a handful of posters you being one of them also mattwolves , Ali and all the ones that were mentioned earlier.  

Very big thank you again for taking the time to explain

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, nettie said:

So if they are still showing the same  in a few days time we can start saying its definitely going to be cold ?  I understand  that snow can't  really be predicted  until nearer the time .   Always mixed reactions in mad thread I find myself trying to concentrate on a handful of posters you being one of them also mattwolves , Ali and all the ones that were mentioned earlier.  

Very big thank you again for taking the time to explain

We are going cold I’m sure. How cold, how long and snow I really don’t know. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5-7c seasonal and that's it!

[That ECM]

12 hours ago, nettie said:

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

I knew would get it

 

So the chart for today the cold has moved closer to us ?

Not saying it’s right but go through the ecm this morning. Very good example of what we were saying about wind direction and how it brings the cold in.

[ARTDEMOLE]

wet awaiting winds

[jtay]

Really heavy shower just blew through. Horrible out there.

[TammasinWhiskers]

Welp, am now thoroughly confused. We've got a yellow weather warning from the Met Office till 3am tomorrow, and there's just been a notification of severe and convective weather from Netweather. On the other hand, our winds here in the middle of Cornwall are forecast to drop by lunchtime (up to 50mph this morning but dropping to 20-30 in the afternoon) and we have "moderate" rain forecast throughout the afternoon. Both Met Office and Netweather radars show the squall line passing over us but the worst of it avoiding us. Our wind doesn't pick up to 50-60mph till tomorrow afternoon and evening, when the weather warning is - currently - not covering us. 

Tuesday, on the other hand, which isn't showing as anything at all on either the Met Office or Netweather forecasts, looks absolutely bleddy awful on the GFZ charts. 

Whut??

 

 

[Andy Bown]

Extremely gloomy and damp/wet this morning. Very thankful yesterday and Thursday both had several hours of sunshine! 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, TammasinWhiskers said:

Welp, am now thoroughly confused. We've got a yellow weather warning from the Met Office till 3am tomorrow, and there's just been a notification of severe and convective weather from Netweather. On the other hand, our winds here in the middle of Cornwall are forecast to drop by lunchtime (up to 50mph this morning but dropping to 20-30 in the afternoon) and we have "moderate" rain forecast throughout the afternoon. Both Met Office and Netweather radars show the squall line passing over us but the worst of it avoiding us. Our wind doesn't pick up to 50-60mph till tomorrow afternoon and evening, when the weather warning is - currently - not covering us. 

Tuesday, on the other hand, which isn't showing as anything at all on either the Met Office or Netweather forecasts, looks absolutely bleddy awful on the GFZ charts. 

Whut??

What a confusing world we live in! I use the (age old) fax charts to view what's on the horizon, if you take a look there you will see the isobars (lines on the chart) getting closer so the wind strength increasing tomorrow. It also shows the inbound spell of weather.

For more information on understanding the fax chart (synoptic chart) have a read here. 

How to read synoptic weather charts

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Find out what the lines, arrows and letters mean on synoptic weather charts.

Here's the 10m wind speed forecast for tomorrow

HTH.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, a tad bit overcast and wet this morning! The overnight low was doing grand for a while reaching 5.4°C at: 01:17, currently 11.2°C, RH91% with a fresh breeze in from the SW.

From Above, hmm cloudy!

On Golden sands a fair amount of surf

Suggestion is the wind speed will pick up tonight down here:

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

Extremely gloomy and damp/wet this morning. Very thankful yesterday and Thursday both had several hours of sunshine! 

Spoilt we wuz gov, spoilt!

[TammasinWhiskers]

26 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

What a confusing world we live in! I use the (age old) fax charts to view what's on the horizon, if you take a look there you will see the isobars (lines on the chart) getting closer so the wind strength increasing tomorrow. It also shows the inbound spell of weather.

For more information on understanding the fax chart (synoptic chart) have a read here. 

How to read synoptic weather charts

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Find out what the lines, arrows and letters mean on synoptic weather charts.

Here's the 10m wind speed forecast for tomorrow

HTH.

Thanks - we're in the middle, so not likely to be as bad as certain "news" sites would have us believe. (We've had continual shizzle all morning - a portmanteau word created in this household, the second word being drizzle and the first... not...) and 40mph gusts since about 9am so it's apparently dropping after lunch for the rest of the day. I'm guessing the reason the weather warning drops off in the early hours even though our wind speed doesn't ramp up till afterwards, is that the potential impact of its increase isn't as significant, not to do with the actual weather?

[jtay]

Very stop, start today.  Trying to get outside stuff done, but the rain is winning. 

Will try again after lunch.

[Dorsetbred]

Looks like a squall line is developing off the coast of Cornwall, with some sferics being created:

[TammasinWhiskers]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Looks like a squall line is developing off the coast of Cornwall, with some sferics being created:

Yes that one's been on the cards for a few hours now, doesn't look fun at all but mercifully brief. Seems to be some discrepancy about when it's going to arrive although the Met Office seems to be permanently about an hour behind everybody else. Allus behind, like the cow's tail.... 

We were going to have a run out to Newlyn next week before the Junior Engineer starts back at school, but not sure there'll be any boats going out this side of next weekend. We don't pay enough for our fish in this country, not half enough, for what the people who go out to catch it risk. 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

33 minutes ago, jtay said:

Very stop, start today.  Trying to get outside stuff done, but the rain is winning. 

Will try again after lunch.

What you trying to do Ted?

Also got my eye on the weather. Me and the girls will be at the panto in an hour. Won't be out til 5pmish so depends on what the weather is doing as to whether we get drowned and blown to kingdom come! Getting the bus back too!

[nettie]

It's going to be an interesting few hours ahead.  Must admit I'm scared of wind strong wind that is . So will be staying indoors at what ever time it hits . Could do without the extra rain . 

BEKA enjoy the Panto

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, nettie said:

It's going to be an interesting few hours ahead.  Must admit I'm scared of wind strong wind that is . So will be staying indoors at what ever time it hits . Could do without the extra rain . 

BEKA enjoy the Panto

The "suggestion" is that the line becomes very disjointed, which in other words its no longer a squall line, but lets see.

[Mapantz]

The wind has started to pick up here, nothing significant yet though.