South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[AWD]

42 minutes ago, sw snow said:

I don't get all the fuss. Temps next week (when viewing) weather apps appear to be higher than those seen here in North Devon this week albeit I don't rule out a little snow on higher ground as is the norm in these setups.

Weather apps are generally computer generated and have no human input.  Be cautious over any forecast from weather apps, regardless of whether it’s mild/cold/wet/dry.

I always prefer the text forecasts from the Met Office for example.

Edited January 12 by AWD

[TammasinWhiskers]

Ahhhh, I remember the good old days of snow in Cornwall.... 

Actually, no, pretty though it is and much though the Junior Engineer would love it, the three occasions we've had a proper snow dump - winter 2010 when he was a tiny, tiny baby, and my parents took him out on the bus for an hour's jolly and ended up getting stuck because the buses stopped running. 

The year of my late husband's funeral, he died in December and we couldn't have his memorial service till March thanks to the weather - and even then it was touch and go. 

And the year we had one single afternoon of snow dumped on us in Truro and people abandoned cars all the way down Station Hill, and several of my colleagues had to spend the night sleeping in the office because they couldn't actually leave the city centre. Snow had all melted within half a day but there were numpties leaving cars blocking everywhere....

[78/79]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow  here next week, we're about 500 feet a s l,.  It's the potential switch back to wind, and rain that concerns me though. A lot of poor folk around here were flooded out last Thursday. 

We need rain about as much as I need a bullet hole in the head. 

 

[Frank Trough]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

Indeed. If you like snow espcially in Devon and Cornwall then you'll really want the latest ECM run to happen. Sadly it won't be exactly like this but shows the snow chances are still there for our region. You'd expect the snow line to get up toward the M4 with even the coasts initially getting in on the action.

 

i was quite surprised at the ECM this morning - i looked at UKMO/GEM/GFS first and all had the precip further south so i was sort of expecting ECM to keep it away. Interesting - but experience tells me that it would probably be mostly rain for here. 

edit - 06z GFS keeps precip south as well. 

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

i was quite surprised at the ECM this morning - i looked at UKMO/GEM/GFS first and all had the precip further south so i was sort of expecting ECM to keep it away. Interesting - but experience tells me that it would probably be mostly rain for here. 

edit - 06z GFS keeps precip south as well. 

True, depends on the wind direction i guess, if it maintains an easterly you should be alright but as you know its such a fine line to get the orientation of a channel low just right for the coast. I grew up over in purbeck and i remember we had a great fall in 1994. Everything was perfect. I think it was the following year or 96 a similar set up to start with had us more snow but the veered quickly to a southerly and it was all over!

[Frank Trough]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

True, depends on the wind direction i guess, if it maintains an easterly you should be alright but as you know its such a fine line to get the orientation of a channel low just right for the coast. I grew up over in purbeck and i remember we had a great fall in 1994. Everything was perfect. I think it was the following year or 96 a similar set up to start with had us more snow but the veered quickly to a southerly and it was all over!

i think i remember the 1994 (i grew up on the Isle of Wight) one. There were a couple around then but things seem to have gradually gone downhill since then for the most part. 

Even in that ECM set up you probably wouldn't have to go far inland from here to see a bit of snow

[festivalking]

5 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

i think i remember the 1994 (i grew up on the Isle of Wight) one. There were a couple around then but things seem to have gradually gone downhill since then for the most part. 

Even in that ECM set up you probably wouldn't have to go far inland from here to see a bit of snow

Think it was valentines day the 94 one. Being a saints fan, I'm sure saints played that night on sky with the snow falling (could of been against liverpool)

[Frank Trough]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Think it was valentines day the 94 one. Being a saints fan, I'm sure saints played that night on sky with the snow falling (could of been against liverpool)

i too am a Saints fan  i was remembering the same event - i didn't watch but Saints won (i think). I walked with my mates along Ryde Seafront to seaview in the snow. Think it melted the next afternoon.

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, and overcast drizzly morning so far after the overnight low of 4.2°C at: 07:32 having leapt all the way up to 4.5°C currently, with RH84% and a light ENE breeze.

From Above

On Golden sands, looking grim

[festivalking]

43 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

i too am a Saints fan  i was remembering the same event - i didn't watch but Saints won (i think). I walked with my mates along Ryde Seafront to seaview in the snow. Think it melted the next afternoon.

Marvellous! What a season we're having I'd much prefer to stay in the championship! I reside on Dartmoor these days but the local pub ran a mini bus up to st marys for the argyle game, I was on the bus stood in the home end they went in the away end -  the bus was very quiet going back 

[Frank Trough]

28 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Marvellous! What a season we're having I'd much prefer to stay in the championship! I reside on Dartmoor these days but the local pub ran a mini bus up to st marys for the argyle game, I was on the bus stood in the home end they went in the away end -  the bus was very quiet going back 

this season has been so much more enjoyable than the last of couple of years in the Prem. Can't believe people still haven't warmed to RM!! 

Anyway......on to the 12zs later beginning with a bit of ICONNERY again. Seems like there is growing uncertainty within ECM and GFS about the midweek low next week (according to a much more knowledgeable post on the mod thread) so that will be interesting to see how it plays out later. 

I'm with UKMO from this morning all day long

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Met still talking about ‘a risk of snowfall across southern parts of the UK’ on Wednesday.

Struggling to see that myself based on the latest model runs. Not that that means anything, I just wonder how big that ‘risk’ is now compared to a couple of days ago.

[Dorsetbred]

46 minutes ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

Met still talking about ‘a risk of snowfall across southern parts of the UK’ on Wednesday.

Struggling to see that myself based on the latest model runs. Not that that means anything, I just wonder how big that ‘risk’ is now compared to a couple of days ago.

Oooo, I bet that's not gone down well in the Northern forums

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

24 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Oooo, I bet that's not gone down well in the Northern forums

I think their treats will come from a northerly direction. Some of the Northern forums might be a bit busier than our own over the next week or so.

Devon and Cornwall could get in on the action if a Pembroke dangler was to appear mind.

 

[Somerset girl]

Just now, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

I think their treats will come from a northerly direction. Some of the Northern forums might be a bit busier than our own over the next week or so.

Devon and Cornwall could get in on the action if a Pembroke dangler was to appear mind.

 

Ooh I say... I'm just thinking it will, be cold next week as the talk of will it won't it makes my head spin . I was hoping to learn how to start reading the weather models but I'll have to wait till, spring I think .lol 

Currently grey here and cold enough to start me coughing and wheezing , so very cold for me  next week isn't ideal, but it's very pretty if there is frost around . 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, Glenosnow said:

Yup get you on that one,we just want one decent dump of snow as a little winter fix eh.....

Yes!!! Group hug ...

[Nights King]

24 minutes ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

I think their treats will come from a northerly direction. Some of the Northern forums might be a bit busier than our own over the next week or so.

Devon and Cornwall could get in on the action if a Pembroke dangler was to appear mind.

 

That would be 2 events for Devon and Cornwal this winter so far..

I have a sinking feeling about this cold spell for most of us just like that front will sink over coming days. 

Chilly week followed by mixing out of cold following weekend without a battleground is my best guess. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm feeling very meh and sad

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

I think their treats will come from a northerly direction. Some of the Northern forums might be a bit busier than our own over the next week or so.

Devon and Cornwall could get in on the action if a Pembroke dangler was to appear mind.

 

Apologies in advance 

7 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm feeling very meh and sad

You OK matey?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

Apologies in advance 

You OK matey?

Model watching worn me out. And now there is thick cloud everywhere. I'm bored of Winter and want Spring to come. And I'm on a IBS flair up and need to do damn school run in 15 mins when I've got tummy ache waaaaah!!!!!

[festivalking]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Model watching worn me out. And now there is thick cloud everywhere. I'm bored of Winter and want Spring to come. And I'm on a IBS flair up and need to do damn school run in 15 mins when I've got tummy ache waaaaah!!!!!

It has been the dullest of winter it feels so definitely get the pain. And IBS full sympathy.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just now, festivalking said:

It has been the dullest of winter it feels so definitely get the pain. And IBS full sympathy.

Yea it's just all draining isn't it! I'm ready for warmth so I can sit in the garden with sun on my face and recharge!

[Mapantz]

Temperature ranging from 5.3 to 5.9°C since midnight. A very nondescript day.

Just gave the bird feeder a good clean out and bought a 20KG bag of seed to keep it topped up.

[AWD]

1 hour ago, Somerset girl said:

Ooh I say... I'm just thinking it will, be cold next week as the talk of will it won't it makes my head spin . I was hoping to learn how to start reading the weather models but I'll have to wait till, spring I think .lol 

Currently grey here and cold enough to start me coughing and wheezing , so very cold for me  next week isn't ideal, but it's very pretty if there is frost around . 

If you ever want to talk through the very basics to get you started, I’d be happy to run through the basics with you (via PM obviously) whenever.  I’m no expert or anything, but I can read a chart & understand the broad brush data modelling gives out.

Alternatively there is the learning thread, where the likes of John Holmes, Knocker & a few others have produced some great learning points if you have some time and would like to delve deeper into the weather world.

Don’t be scared to learn, there are plenty of more relaxed and mature places on this forum that would happily help, outside of the crazy antics of the model output thread.

Edited January 12 by AWD

[matt111]

Back the the familiar dull weather today. Only difference to before is it’s dry and feels colder than last time it was like this.