Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, ideally would like to have colder air in place before that low goes down the channel - if that is where it is headed, T288:

Think it is OK though.

It is ok outside of 270 hours which suggests that the models are underestimating the strength of the Azores high in earlier time frames. I think this watering down of charts is likely to continue as modelled cold synoptics come under the time frame of more accurate NWP resolution of the Azores high hence watering down cold.

[geordiekev]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks on track to me, Kasim, T258:

I reckon it is always better to view these sorts of evolutions on NH view.  

Yip v happy. The low in Pacific remained cut off at period on interest, lifting heights over there & squeezing the vortex over the polar region, which ends favourable for better WAA in Greeny.

All good for the building blocks this far out

Edited January 3 by geordiekev

[Met4Cast]

It’s not even 6am and already a couple of people are over reacting & over analysing deterministic runs  

GEFS are holding steady, no real change to expectations despite some overly dramatic “it’s all gone wrong” posts. 

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is ok outside of 270 hours which suggests that the models are underestimating the strength of the Azores high in earlier time frames. I think this watering down of charts is likely to continue as modelled cold synoptics come under the time frame of more accurate NWP resolution of the Azores high hence watering down cold.

Maybe just and wait see, this is probably a third example of you being way over confident & changing your mind based on a deterministic run. It’s not helpful to those less knowledgable & trying to gain some insight. 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s not even 6am and already a couple of people are over reacting & over analysing deterministic runs  

GEFS are holding steady, no real change to expectations despite some overly dramatic “it’s all gone wrong” posts. 

GFS control at 170h not far off bringing in a mild south westerly.

[geordiekev]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is ok outside of 270 hours which suggests that the models are underestimating the strength of the Azores high in earlier time frames. I think this watering down of charts is likely to continue as modelled cold synoptics come under the time frame of more accurate NWP resolution of the Azores high hence watering down cold.

Let it Go, Let it Go. Seriously Kasim you're getting tunnel vision for your Azores High, even when they aren't there, you're wishing them true

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS control at 170h not far off bringing in a mild south westerly.

Which means nothing until we see where it sits within the ensembles. GFS det on the milder end of the pack in the earlier timeframe. 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s not even 6am and already a couple of people are over reacting & over analysing deterministic runs  

GEFS are holding steady, no real change to expectations despite some overly dramatic “it’s all gone wrong” posts. 

Maybe just and wait see, this is probably a third example of you being way over confident & changing your mind based on a deterministic run. It’s not helpful to those less knowledgable & trying to gain some insight. 

Not changed my mind on that the first attempt is most likely to produce a UK high & second is more likely to produce a cold northeasterly.

This was a statement that the delaying of very cold charts is not a positive.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

It’s not even 6am and already a couple of people are over reacting & over analysing deterministic runs  

GEFS are holding steady, no real change to expectations despite some overly dramatic “it’s all gone wrong” posts. 

There’s no suggestion anything has gone wrong, the op runs are rolling out solutions within the envelope of possibilities of yesterday’s EPS (and other ensembles) - which were and are excellent.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, geordiekev said:

Let it Go, Let it Go. Seriously Kasim you're getting tunnel vision for your Azores High, even when they aren't there, you're wishing them true

To be fair to him, he has a point.

Come T0 heights tick up slightly to our S and pressure lowers to our N. It’s a common occurrence within the modelling during winter.

Just because heights look ok to our S at D10 it doesn’t mean they will be when D10 becomes D5.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

Let it Go, Let it Go. Seriously Kasim you're getting tunnel vision for your Azores High, even when they aren't there, you're wishing them true

The thing is they are there and they're causing significant issues in advecting cold south. Had heights over the Azores been slightly lower we'd have been looking at a very cold easterly early next week. This is indeed what was modeled a few days ago until the time frame came within scope of models being able to accurately determine the inflation of the hadley cell and shunt out the possibility of an undercut.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not changed my mind on that the first attempt is most likely to produce a UK high & second is more likely to produce a cold northeasterly.

This was a statement that the delaying of very cold charts is not a positive.

Honestly mate if I’m struggling to know what your thinking is then I expect many others are too, your mind seems to change every single time the models run. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM is the run we want..setting up initially well with the positioning of the high..then it goes with the general theme building heights out toward greenland..gfs is ok except it doesn't evolve very cleanly

[Kasim Awan]

40 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Honestly mate if I’m struggling to know what your thinking is then I expect many others are too, your mind seems to change every single time the models run. 

I see things from every angle, I understand that the weather is a result of a complex set of interactions which themselves need closely analysing. 

The up and down nature of my posts is related to seeing a different angle each time and noting the significance of each synoptic driver. Today for example we have seen an increase in Azores heights again. It's very clear within the GEFS that pressure has risen a good 25-30% over the Azores region. This is a significant barrier in terms of advecting cold south and producing easterly flows. 

40 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

To be fair to him, he has a point.

Come T0 heights tick up slightly to our S and pressure lowers to our N. It’s a common occurrence within the modelling during winter.

Just because heights look ok to our S at D10 it doesn’t mean they will be when D10 becomes D5.

A few lines of code would sort it and we wouldn't have to tolerate the downgrades.

Edited January 3 by Kasim Awan

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There’s no suggestion anything has gone wrong, the op runs are rolling out solutions within the envelope of possibilities of yesterday’s EPS (and other ensembles) - which were and are excellent.

Tbf Mike, not long ago we were looking at Icelandic HP this coming weekend…solid means too for this scenario. Now we’re looking at a UK HP.

There’s absolutely no evidence that the same won’t happen for the next D10 chase.

Even with solid background drivers we’re really struggling.

We see this scenario play out year after year these days and people say they won’t be fooled next time and yet they always are.

Edited January 3 by Cheshire Freeze

[geordiekev]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

To be fair to him, he has a point.

Come T0 heights tick up slightly to our S and pressure lowers to our N. It’s a common occurrence within the modelling during winter.

Just because heights look ok to our S at D10 it doesn’t mean they will be when D10 becomes D5.

And when the dets & means show that, then I'll start to worry but some of the best Scandi Highs spawn from the Azores High so don't get the constant demonising

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, geordiekev said:

And when the dets & means show that, then I'll start to worry but some of the best Scandi Highs spawn from the Azores High so don't get the constant demonising

There’s a specific scenario that leads to an Azores HP becoming Scandi blocking…and it requires several aspects to line up and coincide pretty perfectly. That’s why classic E’lys are so rare.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

Tbf Mike, not long ago we were looking at Icelandic HP this coming weekend…solid means too for this scenario. Now we’re looking at a UK HP.

There’s absolutely no evidence that the same won’t happen for the next D10 chase.

Even with solid background drivers we’re really struggling.

I think the Iceland HP went 3 days ago, I had my mini-toy throwing episode back then!  (I know the occasional run has kept it alive.)

I think with the trop drivers and fallout from the Canadian warming, there’s an open door, and there’s a strong a signal as there can be at this range on the models that the Greenland high will happen.

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There’s no suggestion anything has gone wrong, the op runs are rolling out solutions within the envelope of possibilities of yesterday’s EPS (and other ensembles) - which were and are excellent.

Things haven't gone wrong because the posts have been shifted to day 10-12 whereas a few days ago an easterly early next week was almost the favored scenario and now it is less likely. 

Although there is significant support for big retrogression days 10-14 there are big barriers in our way, firstly a synoptic pattern that significant is laden with the usual pitfalls. Secondly we have to factor in the recent tendency to promote heights in unfavorable areas as we approach day 1. Still it is a noteworthy chance and has all the positive signs associated with it aswell, such as background factors like AAM and good consistency. So a balanced view would say there is a significant chance but it is far from nailed on and will likely result in lots more twists and turns as models break down complex mesoscale interactions in the medium range.

[Weather-history]

This has got to be good news for a start, the rainfall totals.  A continuation of what has happened before well into January would have increased flooding risks. A break from the rain would be welcomed and is needed. 

 

[Met4Cast]

GEFS remain absolutely solid in terms of surface cold. Absolutely nothing mild in here. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I think the Iceland HP went 3 days ago, I had my mini-toy throwing episode back then!  (I know the occasional run has kept it alive.)

I think with the trop drivers and fallout from the Canadian warming, there’s an open door, and there’s a strong a signal as there can be at this range on the models that the Greenland high will happen.

I agree, there’s a signal…but me and you have both been around on here long enough to know that signal can be snuffed out very quickly.

I’m not interested until this is inside D5.

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Honestly mate if I’m struggling to know what your thinking is then I expect many others are too, your mind seems to change every single time the models run. 

He's analysing the charts and looking for where things can go wrong. You should try it sometime. The charts in the reliable are just about OK. Anything decent remains in FI

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

GEFS remain absolutely solid in terms of surface cold. Absolutely nothing mild in here. 

This I fear is the place we could be heading - GEFS00Z is significantly flatter South of Greenland day 8.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo is nice run also..at 168 you can see the high shuffle west and heights starting too rise across greenland...in fact too me it looks very good..energy wants to go underneath and prop up the high even further

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GEFS remain absolutely solid in terms of surface cold. Absolutely nothing mild in here. 

Low single didgits!

Edited January 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[geordiekev]

2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

There’s a specific scenario that leads to an Azores HP becoming Scandi blocking…and it requires several aspects to line up and coincide pretty perfectly. That’s why classic E’lys are so rare.

Not the point I was making though is it as I'm seasoned enough to see enough failures but also the close calls, which as I said AH can be favourable & it's all a bit of a bore hearing the term non stop.

Me I'll review the day after a full set begore jumping on any bandwaggon or carrot dangling