Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

The background signals/ telleconections, essembles, most models plus met office who have access to £100,000,000 odd super computer all point to this Kasim. It is more than likely to happen now even at such range.

We shall see but I think with that mindset you're setting up for a potential massive dissapointment. Those same 100,000,000 super computers have been wrong so many times at that range. 

[Harsh Climate]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Personally I don't understand why so much weight is being put on mid January.We can't get the next 5 days into 50% confidence so my confidence on this is very very low. 

I think the next 5 days is pretty clear anyway now, a brief easterly in Eastern areas more especially South East with perhaps a few wintry showers.

Then becoming more settled next 5 days with high pressure over us or slightly to NW. That's way I see it.

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think the next 5 days is pretty clear anyway now, a brief easterly in Eastern areas more especially South East with perhaps a few wintry showers.

Then becoming more settled next 5 days with high pressure over us or slightly to NW. That's way I see it.

We can't also discount a push of milder air from the SW.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We can't also discount a push of milder air from the SW.

Not many are going for milder air kasim..all the models agree strongly on either chilly or cold conditions..I think you can forget the word mild for the next couple of weeks...ECM looking identical to the GEM at 96h

Edited January 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not many are going for milder air kasim..all the models agree strongly on either chilly or cold conditions..I think you can forget the word mild for the next couple of weeks

Not going for mild just saying it's an option. So many in here have the tendency to muddle words.

[KTtom]

19 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

The background signals/ telleconections, essembles, most models plus met office who have access to £100,000,000 odd super computer all point to this Kasim. It is more than likely to happen now even at such range.

Isnt it funny how the met get lambasted when they are not on board for being behind the times yet lorded when they back cold? Even they are strongly hinting at dry and cold.

Regarding telleconnections etc, mid July there was rock solid support for a very warm dry August... couldnt have been further off the mark. So, anyone feeling pensive over something 2 weeks away has every reason. 

Personal opinion, Greenland high mid month is likely but watch south west, I have a feeling it wont be as 'clean' as some might think come 144.

 

Edited January 3 by KTtom

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Isnt it funny how the met get lambasted when they are not on board for being behind the times yet lorded when they back cold? Even they are strongly hinting at dry and cold.

Regarding telleconnections etc, mid July there was rock solid support for a very warm dry August... couldnt have been further off the mark. So, anyone feeling pensive over something 2 weeks away has every reason. 

Personal opinion, Greenland high mid month is likely but watch south west, I have a feeling it wont be as 'clean' as some might think come 144.

 

I'd say a cold North Easterly from a central Greenland high, near normal temperatures from a west based Greenland high & mild from a Mediterranean high are equally likely options at present. 

[offerman]

21 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We shall see but I think with that mindset you're setting up for a potential massive dissapointment. Those same 100,000,000 super computers have been wrong so many times at that range. 

Completely agree, whilst so much money has been spent on these, they can assist to a point but they are not definitive in their accuracy and have been wrong on so many occasions, especially when coldweather is concerned, but they have been correct when wind and rain, and quite often protecting warmer weather is concerned in summer. 
 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'd say a cold North Easterly from a central Greenland high, near normal temperatures from a west based Greenland high & mild from a Mediterranean high are equally likely options at present. 

So there  is 50/50 support for a Greenland high and a west based Greenland high with zero other options?

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'd say a cold North Easterly from a central Greenland high, near normal temperatures from a west based Greenland high & mild from a Mediterranean high are equally likely options at present. 

My post regarding the threat from the SW was relating to low pressure moving in before the effects of a GH take hold.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, frosty ground said:

So there  is 50/50 support for a Greenland high and a west based Greenland high with zero other options?

The other option is dragging up mild air from the SW if the retrogression sinks SE.

Just now, KTtom said:

My post regarding the threat from the SW was relating to low pressure moving in before the effects of a GH take hold.

If the retrogression takes too long, I can easily see low pressure spinning out to the SW of the Azores high reinforcing the UK high which then makes it less likely to retrogress hence increasing strength of the high etc etc in a perpetual loop.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The other option is dragging up mild air from the SW if the retrogression sinks SE.

So what’s the percentage of a Greenland high and no Greenland high aka sinker? 

[carinthian]

The UKMO fax has that nuisance Low close to the North of Scotland and delays the cold from the east for 24 hours. However, should  move away on Saturday and possibly bring a little snow to the E/SE  as colder air digs in on its transfer.

C

Edited January 3 by carinthian

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, frosty ground said:

So what’s the percentage of a Greenland high and no Greenland high aka sinker? 

A third each.

[offerman]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The juries out on this Greenland high until it actually shows up closer to the time .

The easterly continues to get downgraded with the uppers moving up.

Very disappointing as this was the jam today scenario rather than the jam tomorrow which the Greenland high rollercoaster is turning into .

We should bear in mind the epic fail of the ECM which had the coldest scenario and seemed unlikely to be wrong at just T120 hrs .

It will at least turn drier which I’m sure is a huge relief to many and it will turn colder but unless there’s a huge turnaround with the ECM then any snow chances off an easterly look very unlikely .

The ECM out soon , it owes coldies !

Nice sensible post there Nick. I always read and respect what you write. You have good knowledge and are realistic well balanced as well. 

[Met4Cast]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not going for mild just saying it's an option. So many in here have the tendency to muddle words.

No, you’re just not being clear & continuously highlighting things that don’t need to be highlighted. 

We can’t discount a full return to zonal either but many aren’t banging on about that all day everyday because there’s no support for it. 

I’m getting whiplash with how quickly you switch from saying one thing to another, changing your mind on the evolution more often than the run of a GFS, it’s really difficult to follow, you can’t really put that blame on other people, perhaps re-read through your posts & you’ll see how inconsistent you can/have been. 

Anyway, fantastic ECM with the high still making grounds further north allowing in an easterly flow. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

No, you’re just not being clear & continuously highlighting things that don’t need to be highlighted. 

We can’t discount a full return to zonal either but many aren’t banging on about that all day everyday because there’s no support for it. 

I’m getting whiplash with how quickly you switch from saying one thing to another, changing your mind on the evolution more often than the run of a GFS, it’s really difficult to follow, you can’t really put that blame on other people, perhaps re-read through your posts & you’ll see how inconsistent you can/have been. 

Anyway, fantastic ECM with the high still making grounds further north allowing in an easterly flow. 

A couple of days ago apparently the chance of this high sinking was near 0.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

A couple of days ago apparently the chance of this high sinking was near 0.

It was never “near 0” and the high isn’t “sinking”. A sinking high is a high that goes into Europe and allows the Atlantic in, that’s not what is being modelled here. 

A UK based high has been favourite for days now. What is up for grabs is how much amplification can be squeezed out of it. 

Edited January 3 by Met4Cast

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

It was never “near 0” and the high isn’t “sinking”. A sinking high is a high that goes into Europe and allows the Atlantic in, that’s not what is being modelled here. 

A UK based high has been favourite for days now. What is up for grabs is how much amplification can be squeezed out of it. 

I think you have mistaken a lot of my posts for my opinion when in fact they are just reflecting what the output is showing.

Atleast the ECM has heights a little lower over Iberia region.

[WINTRY WALES]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A couple of days ago apparently the chance of this high sinking was near 0.

Kasim I think the trouble most people have on here is the flip flop of live model viewing commentary. It’s like watching a football match and when one team has the ball for 10 seconds saying this team is looking like they are going to win. Then the next team gains possession and saying no They are not the other team are about to score and win. Then this keeps repeating each time a side gains possession or has a few shots etc…. Catch my drift?? Take 5 watch how it pans out and put a balanced view together

Edited January 3 by WINTRY WALES

[nick sussex]

Still some uncertainty with the depth of cold upto day 6 .

The ECM is a little colder than last nights run. The shortwave to the nw is complicating matters .

It looks mainly dry for the vast majority of the UK except for the far se where the ECM at T96 hrs brings a small colder pool.

This may well disappear on the next run given the chopping and changing.

So the far se there’s still a chance of some wintry showers with a brief window for convection . Snow wise I wouldn’t like to say at this point ! 

More later after my breakfast . 

Edited January 3 by nick sussex

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM day 10 will do..I just wonder how much of that cold is going west!

[Kasim Awan]

The solution of strong retrogression to Greenland met with a push of energy from the SW is gaining traction. Around 1/2 of GEFS went this way and so does ECM, this makes it challenging to advect cold South however would set up a battle ground over the UK which could result in snow in places.

Edited January 3 by Kasim Awan

[Met4Cast]

Back to reality.. 

The GEFS show the broad evolution, much colder next week before slightly less cold air (at least aloft, the surface will remain cold throughout) filters in with the high re/shuffling before a second bite of the cherry later in the run as the high retrogresses. 

Still a potential for wintriness in the E/SE from the initial UK based high, how much amplification still needs ironing out. 

[KTtom]

Hmm, is ECM already starting to show potential obstacles to the clean transition? Awaits the words 'delay'

 

Edited January 3 by KTtom