Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

The ECM control take a the high further north

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Since I was 5 years old in 2010.how long was the chase before the cold spell started?

15 years I believe

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

See the ECM12Z.

OMG Kas, that is just one chart from one run...............that's not giving any strength to your argument, I have posted 20+ charts that argue against that .

Edited January 3 by MJB

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, MJB said:

OMG Kas, that is just one chart from one run...............that's not giving any strength to you argument, I have posted 20+ charts that argue against that .

No need for that. Weather is not black and white both options are shown so both are possible.

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The ECM control take a the high further north

Where can we see this?

[Ali1977]

EE Mean at 174 is 6 miles further north and heights are digging 3 miles further north west - upgrade

Edited January 3 by Ali1977

[MJB]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

No need for that. Weather is not black and white both options are shown so both are possible.

No need for what, stop being sensitive please, I am putting a case against your argument, which frankly lacks strength and you have shown little evidence. Of course you might be right but going on this mornings charts it is pure guesswork.

No more from me on this 

 

Cheers 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

No need for that. Weather is not black and white both options are shown so both are possible.

Where can we see this?

Just a small shift not much..

[winterof79]

18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Jma seems to end on a west based nao

GEM doesn't

 

 

 

and I'd say nor do the GEFS or the EPS (iknow they're yesterdays EPS)

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

The solution of strong retrogression to Greenland met with a push of energy from the SW is gaining traction. Around 1/2 of GEFS went this way and so does ECM, this makes it challenging to advect cold South however would set up a battle ground over the UK which could result in snow in places.

I’m sorry mate but push from the south west?! This is 2 days away from us going into the freezer

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’m sorry mate but push from the south west?! This is 2 days away from us going into the freezer

Scott would that low to the southwest slide east..and engage with the trough coming down?

[ICE COLD]

Honestly this forum is doing my nut in . I could understand if the outlook was poor but it’s not , far from it . 
 

ECM Mean - yes this a mean with a mean ridge into Greenland it’s stonking . 

GEFS - lots of runs going towards -15 850s with a great mean like the ECM .

Also we have the Met onboard , that is very important. All in all a fantastic outlook . 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

At T192, I think the trend is for this high to be a little further east, not sure what effect that will have longer term.  Cluster 2 with 18 members, still has the UK potentially in an easterly at this point.  By T240, the main core of heights is consistent across the three clusters extending into Greenland, but there are subtle differences in the eastern extent in the vicinity of the UK which will affect how quickly the cold reaches the UK, cluster 3 the fastest - enough difference for the algorithm to assign one each to the purple, red and green regimes.  

T264+:

Just the two clusters with subtle differences, but solid as yesterday on the Greenland high.  The detail has to wait until this is closer - of course the devil may be in the detail for an island the size of the UK (always), but the signal for cold is pretty much as strong as it can be for this timeframe, as it was yesterday.

Edited January 3 by Mike Poole

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’m sorry mate but push from the south west?! This is 2 days away from us going into the freezer

That chart to me shows a lack of forcing and lack of cold air nearby.

[Ali1977]

The control at 204 shows a much more blocked Arctic so all is well with where we are heading. 
Look at the heights compared to the last run 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Quick look at yesterdays ECM 0z mean at day 10. Clear sign of the UK based high heading for Greenland. 

 

 

Now a look at this mornings 0z mean for the same date but now day 9.

 

Looks like higher heights lingering around the UK for longer which just delays the retrogression towards Greenland a tad. Skip to this mornings day 10 mean and we have lift off with the high heading NW. 

 

 

The retrogression signal is clear across all suites but let’s hope we can count this down into the reliable without any hiccups. Buckle up! 

 

 

[Weather-history]

28 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Energy at 500mb jet coming up from the South here. This is the worry if heights are still relatively high over Europe then there's a good chance the cold will be pushed NW of the UK with some jet energy deflected up from the SW.

Kasim, it will help if you can to post charts to show this. 

A lot of us are not synoptics specialists and it is hard to see what you are referring to because to my naked eye,  it just looks like a low coming down from Greenland and developing. 

[Chesil View]

This is the model discussion thread and much though it is very tempting to give knee jerk reactions to each nuance of every det run especialky when there are potential cold synoptics . I really would advise posters to wait and see what the ens/control/means are suggesting before making bold statements.  Proclaiming west based this or sinking that etc.

The pros at Exeter or on here for that matter don't react to one det run even from their own models they take a measured approach looking at a whole spectrum of ens etc.

I feel it would help this thread immensely if we could perhaps show a similar approach.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

That chart to me shows a lack of forcing and lack of cold air nearby.

The cold air isn’t even due to hit at day 10 on the ecm… a Greenland high is due to build once that is in place is is inevitable that cold air drops down from the east. The chances of us being in the freezer are still extremely high

[johncam]

3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Honestly mate if I’m struggling to know what your thinking is then I expect many others are too, your mind seems to change every single time the models run. 

Could that be because every time they run they are different.  In the immediate time frame it looks as if we are getting a UK high so dry for a while at least.

[seabreeze86]

You are simply not going to get a stronger signal for the high to retrogress to Greenland as this range. 

[Ali1977]

Mean at day 9 - upgrade , heights getting into Greenland quicker 

[Met4Cast]

The extended clusters are very good with cluster 2 following my "high impact snow events" idea as lows run along the cold boundary.

[Duane S.]

Despite concerted and at times desperate efforts to drag down the mood on here, everything looks as expected this morning for a decent cold spell for us.

All within the envelope. Unfortunately, at this early stage, the outer edges of said envelope will never be a wintery nirvana. This has forever been the case for the UK and a cold spell, notwithstanding AGW has likely slightly widened that envelope over the past 30 years.

There is a fine line between excellent pragmatism (i.e. Nick Sussex, Blue Army) and oh look at me I told you (several-dozen-bleeding-times-a-day…) it wouldn’t be -20 uppers and a 3 month long cold spell (glossing over the fact that nobody had actually said anything remotely like that). I exaggerate of course, but I’m sure most get my point…

Of course the Azores high is a massive driver. If you look back at my first post of the winter, back in early November I went to pains to point out that I felt the story of this winter will be a very ’active’ displaced Azores high. This has good and bad consequences. For a start a Euro high ought to be less of a concern. Retrogression likelihood to be a lot higher than usual but yes that brings about the potential of a negative NAO with it. I’ll take that risk thanks.

There is no hard fast way to guarantee winter weather to our balmy shores, there will always be jeopardy involved.  Thats why 95% of people,like myself, visit this forum every winter. It’s as much about the chase and the enjoyment (and otherwise ) of it all along the way. Most on here are long enough in the tooth to know things will likely go wrong, to a degree or another, thanks. Ignoring a user is all well and good but it doesn’t stop them being the centre of attention and thus part of half of the thread posts quoting them. 

Again. There will be no kudos for pointing out what could go wrong every time there is a cold spell chase. Anyone could just as easily copy and paste that every time as well. And guess what? They will end up being correct most of the time But that, I thought?, isn’t why the vast majority of us come on this forum every winter. 

 

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Mean at day 9 - upgrade , heights getting into Greenland quicker 

Yes Ali I noticed that also, starting to tick down now let’s reel it in . UKMO is what I’m watching because if there is a spanner to be thrown in it’s usually the model to find it

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, johncam said:

Could that be because every time they run they are different.  In the immediate time frame it looks as if we are getting a UK high so dry for a while at least.

Which is why many of us wait for the ensembles before forming conclusions. As it happens the GFS det is on the mildest side of the pack, the mean has remained absolutely solid for getting cold air in this weekend. Still some wiggle room over the exact placement of the high too, could still be a chance of some sleet/snow but there's no denying that likelihood is fading. 

This is the best outlook/potential we've had for many years. Over analysing every single deterministic run 8 times a day is pointless..

Edited January 3 by Met4Cast