Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[NewEra21]

People will never learn, this is the UK and we can never celebrate until the cold spell is in our backyards. Something always goes wrong, especially looking at charts 10+ days away.

Let’s hope the models are just having a bit of a wobble, but we’ve seen this so many times before. Solid agreement run after run, then it slowly starts to unravel.

[Weather-history]

This is Boxing Day's 0z runs for today 

ECM

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

JMA

 

And UKMO's 30th December 0z for today

 

 

And the reality

 

 

Edited January 5 by Weather-history

[WINTRY WALES]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

This is Boxing Day's 0z runs for today 

ECM

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

JMA

 

And UKMO's 30th December 0z for today

 

 

And the reality

 

 

Which can also be used to the point of the wintery 10 day charts that have been showing last few days not verifying also

Edited January 5 by WINTRY WALES

[offerman]

11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

People will never learn, this is the UK and we can never celebrate until the cold spell is in our backyards. Something always goes wrong, especially looking at charts 10+ days away.

Let’s hope the models are just having a bit of a wobble, but we’ve seen this so many times before. Solid agreement run after run, then it slowly starts to unravel.

Completely agree with you.

I only learned the hard way after doing exactly the same for many years, but then eventually the realisation was F1 D10 etc all too far out 4 to 5 days more reliable timeframe, but even that can go wrong at that. Short range.

of course, the charts could flip back into the favour of a more prolonged cold spell but unfortunately more often The case is things will get watered down nine times out of 10 near the time.

[carinthian]

20 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

UKMO 0z has sub -10hpa over the far S of England. Last occasion this happened must have been the St Patrick's weekend of 2018?

 

Morning all, another upgrade this morning in the shorter term from UKMO.  Colder flow sourced from that intense cold pool out east making inroads to SE England  during tomorrow. Think further upgrades are possible  out to 96t, especially for the south with chance of light snow from any troughs that form in that flow.

C

[nick sussex]

We used to get model verification upto day ten . Can’t find that now but from memory it was generally around the 5 mark in terms of correlation. 

The ECM used to come out on top but not exactly world beating at that range.

I should re-phrase  that , it beat the other models but was still poor .

Edited January 5 by nick sussex

[John88B]

Not the best runs this morning but the positives - it's going to dry out, it's going to get colder in the reliable, we're still in the early days of the coldest part of winter.

The negatives - charts in f1 have at this moment taken a turn for the worse.

Let's keep our chins up

[Malarky]

How are the 0z means looking?

[KTtom]

9 minutes ago, Malarky said:

How are the 0z means looking?

Gfs day 10.. Its probably the 850 mean which is most revealing -5 uppers ony as far south as northern England.

 

Edited January 5 by KTtom

[That ECM]

Too soon to say it’s bust.

The gfs mean isn’t as strong at T216.

ukmo T168 is good. Clearly we don’t know where it would go.

ecm not out.

As has been said countless times until gets to T120 -T144 the rest is for fun.

It doesn’t always go wrong because cold has landed previously.

The stakes have gone up and whatever the outcome the only thing I can confidently forecast is there will be a queue of “told you so” people.

 

[January Snowstorm]

The good news is that the uppers have improved a lot for next week's Easterly. You would think chances there for coastal snow.....

Re long-term very fragile, a couple of us warned about the trend last night and before. Following FI is folly no matter what ensemble agreement is what I said previously and say again

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll take the t240 chart any day on the GFS. Anything beyond is FI anyway.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Re long-term very fragile, a couple of us warned about the trend last night and before. Following FI is folly no matter what ensemble agreement is what I said previously and say again

So what should we use to see what might be coming fi? If we are not going to use enes etc. 

What made you warn people about the trend last night and before if you weren’t using the output and enes etc? 
 

 

[January Snowstorm]

Ecm not interested in the Easterly. Has everything a nudge South with the decent uppers barely clipping the far South

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Too soon to say it’s bust.

The gfs mean isn’t as strong at T216.

ukmo T168 is good. Clearly we don’t know where it would go.

ecm not out.

As has been said countless times until gets to T120 -T144 the rest is for fun.

It doesn’t always go wrong because cold has landed previously.

The stakes have gone up and whatever the outcome the only thing I can confidently forecast is there will be a queue of “told you so” people.

 

Yes and some have already posted to cover their backs.

However lets see what they post if it remains cold.

-5 850 over Northern England but which way is that heading?

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

So what should we use to see what might be coming fi? If we are not going to use enes etc. 

What made you warn people about the trend last night and before if you weren’t using the output and enes etc? 
 

 

Decades of experience, of seeing it flip last minute, especially when cold is involved

[WINTRY WALES]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Decades of experience, of seeing it flip last minute, especially when cold is involved

So nothing else other than intuition???

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Come on ECM.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ecm not interested in the Easterly. Has everything a nudge South with the decent uppers barely clipping the far South

The window of coldest uppers is brief and we need to see the 6 hour stages as it might have brought that through earlier .

The depth of cold is still likely to change given the models seem to be making a drama over this .

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So nothing else other than intuition???

 

You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models.

You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.

[Weathizard]

The thing is, heights weakening slightly isn’t a bad thing, sometimes a monster high isn’t always beneficial to us when it comes to advecting cold air our way, even a sausage of high pressure can produce if it lands in the right place

Edited January 5 by Weathizard

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Decades of experience, of seeing it flip last minute, especially when cold is involved

Ok got it, if the output is suggesting cold ignore it. save looking at all the science and output I guess. 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models.

You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.

You can predict the next run based on the previous few - as i said, there's no problem with the GEFS suite at all, but will we be still saying that in 2 days?

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models.

You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.

So its all going wrong is your stance that's how you are coming across.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo yes please!

Edited January 5 by Lukesluckybunch
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