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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GFS is fine. LP stalls well out west and allows WAA to head N to keep Greenland heights inflated

image.thumb.png.02b738140019f305b9e4a3017a400704.png

This might be what we have to hope for now as the S arm of the jet looks too undercooked.

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I was referring to the higher pressure over Iberia. Makes for a less amplified pattern.

It seems more help than hindrance supporting WAA

IMG_1389.thumb.png.85879edc4440cbd1d8088a2950717d7b.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

GFS is fine. LP stalls well out west and allows WAA to head N to keep Greenland heights inflated

image.thumb.png.02b738140019f305b9e4a3017a400704.png

This might be what we have to hope for now as the S arm of the jet looks too undercooked.

As long as the cold air is over us if they do eventually move east it's okay.

The trend has definitely swung back to a more robust Greenland/ Iceland block this morning,

Really hope we can get a ecm to show this later too

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

But makes the cold slow to advect South. 

But it’s the safest option to get the cold at all now. Infinitely better than that LP getting into no mans land to our SW where it both cuts off WAA and encourages a European pressure rise.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

As I thought, GFS is fine.

image.thumb.png.411e7524901f5518d9ff668412be5ad0.png

The Atlantic LP in earlier frames needs to stay backed off now as far W as we can get it. It’s clear now that it isn’t (initially) going to disrupt far enough E under the blocking.

As long as it doesn’t sit to our SW and interfere then all should be good.

 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

But it’s the safest option to get the cold at all now. Infinitely better than that LP getting into no mans land to our SW where it both cuts off WAA and encourages a European pressure rise.

Getting there now the cold to our NE is definitely the bigger driver, Azores systems are just working to delay the cold so my posts are regarding details.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Zero point looking further than here now 

image.thumb.png.84de0e0ab1620a0b2d07229cc62a8d2e.png

Insanely complex. If a ridge can be thrown up ahead of that deep Atlantic LP, the block may regenerate.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Wouldn't like the speculate where the ukmo goes next at 168, but heights not as robust into Greenland as the other 2 models 

ukmonh-0-168 (19).png

That’s awful to be fair. Hard to get to where we want to be from there.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GFS sniffing another warming now

image.thumb.png.c23b7dd5c10fc482823611e8b8811ec0.png

Hopefully the final blow to the SPV. If so, we can expect a decent tail end of Jan and into Feb.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

Last one from me,

Things looks incredibly finely balanced at 168, no time for booms yet, but the gefs mean is definitely trending back the right way.

Ukmo resolute on the cold pool for Monday, expect a few surprises with showers, ukv should show some decent activity again when it updates.

ukmohd_uk1-16-42-0.png

gensnh-31-1-174 (2).png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Day ten geps mean,...we are back on track.

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.e8a0ed53ce041ba401c64e9d7cfd6065.png

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Wouldn't like to speculate where the ukmo goes next at 168, but heights not as robust into Greenland as the other 2 models 

ukmonh-0-168 (19).png

Not the best UKMO this morning but at least there’s GFS and GEM on board for now. See if ECM follow the Americans.

IMG_1203.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not the best UKMO this morning but at least there’s GFS and GEM on board for now. See if ECM follow the Americans.

IMG_1203.png

I think the UKMO would be ok, tabbing between the last 2 frames shows the heights move north and not get shunted west - so hopefully they hold and send the Arctic our way !! Prolonged cold spell - not so sure now , not looking as likely !! 

IMG_2477.png

IMG_2478.png

Edited by Ali1977
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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Still plenty of scatter for the  period 15th to 18th ....op lurching from one of the mildest, then coldest then back to milder. It has been the same for the last few runs..still on a knife edge as to whether cold makes it back to southern areas mid month. North is almost a dead cert.

chart.jpeg.jpg

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tom_f123 Explorer

tom_f123

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
Posted

Will this ever be resolved, getting tiring now 😅

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Disappointing ECM at day 6.  Heights into Greenland are not as high as the other models and that shortwave to the west of Iceland causing issues as are the heights over Iberia.

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smith25 Contributor

smith25

Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

Disappointing ECM at day 6.  Heights into Greenland are not as high as the other models and that shortwave to the west of Iceland causing issues as are the heights over Iberia.

How does it compare to yesterdays 0z?

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Disappointing ECM at day 6.  Heights into Greenland are not as high as the other models and that shortwave to the west of Iceland causing issues as are the heights over Iberia.

Good point there seems a lot of pressure on the high at 144..the arctic high may save us..

Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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