Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

Very cold mean..by next monday

[nick sussex]

42 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Frustrating how the intense convective easterly is shunted well North of the UK by the Iberian high.

This was my concern last night . It now looks likely there will be an early phasing of the low and shortwave . We just have to hope this happens further south and east . The UKMO is better but that still looks nerve shredding because a gap is likely to open up in the west Atlantic allowing some seepage of heights post day 7 .

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs op..a big outlier 17th onwards!

[Weather-history]

50 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Frustrating how the intense convective easterly is shunted well North of the UK by the Iberian high.

An Iberian high of 1015mb? 

 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

An Iberian high of 1015mb? 

 

High pressure at 500hpa and 500hpa flow more important.

[NorthYorksWeather]

UKMO 850s for day 6 (next Monday) 

-12 into Scotland and -10 down to parts of the South Coast for a time. 
 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 18z control at T138 much more similar to UKMO than GFS T132:

The ridge between the UK and Azores low seems important here, UKMO has it strongest, GFS loses it.

[nick sussex]

No point in spinning the GFS and GEM ops they’re bad and need to go away and never darken this thread with those outputs again ! 

Coldies hopes rest on the UKMO being right . Indeed that solution is still nerve shredding but the others are past the point of no return by day 7. 

The stakes are high because relatively small shifts in the position of the approaching Atlantic low and the shortwave heading down from Iceland will have a huge impact on snow chances .

You need any phasing to take place as far east and south as possible because the trend is for the block to orientate in a more ne sw .

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Things looks just about ok at the moment..but with what's in offer it could be much better!still time for upgrades for Sunday monday..we need that the trough to sink further south as it kind of stalls to our north and we miss out on the coldest air..I do believe there is the potential for heavy snow next week though in the south

[feb1991blizzard]

Told you shortwaves derail cold spells, the magic roundabout has knackered us after all.

[Gowon]

The GEM I can live with as the cold air would come back south, but the GFS is

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Told you shortwaves derail cold spells, the magic roundabout has knackered us after all.

Don’t give up hope yet . The shortwave which forms is really the symptom not the cause and is related to the weakness of the blocking in that area .

We still have the ECM to come and that was the first to develop that shortwave and flirt with danger . So particular attention today to its output.

Edited January 9 by nick sussex

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The GEM I can live with as the cold air would come back south, but the GFS is

I couldn't it's just another distraction we don't need..it's too far out to be realistic that would happen..let's get it right gem and gfs were poor..ukmo is the route we want to take!clean as a whistle

Edited January 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I couldn't it's just another distraction we don't need..it's too far out to be realistic that would happen..let's get it right gem and gfs were poor..ukmo is the route we want to take!

Yes, but if it came to that i would choose the Gem

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Yes, but if it came to that i would choose the Gem

You mean over the gfs..yes true..gfs was right at the top of the pack also..so good news..still a very big cluster colder than the mean,hopefully ecm can latch onto that!

Edited January 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Gowon]

JMA is an improvement earlier on compared to last night.

[terrier]

How many times have we been told not to over analyse each op run. Yes gfs isn’t as good rhis morning nor is the gem but the ukmo is steadfast. Nothing to worry about in my opinion. Still looking Baltic next week with plenty of snow opportunities. Definitely different to the last few Januarys in years gone by.

[Mark wheeler]

Mogreps 18z was encouraging . Lets hope for more.

Edited January 9 by Mark wheeler

[Chesil View]

 More choices from the envelope of ensemble solutions this morning.

Always worth remembering the models are on a global scale and as part of that the UK is on a micro scale.

A couple of hundred miles error is on a global scale is nothing and within a reasonable margin of error but on a local scale is the difference between bitter cold and mild.

The differences between the gfs 18z and 00z det runs in the medium term mean trusting those det runs past the initial retrogression is a pointless exercise.

[TillyS]

59 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Gfs op..a big outlier 17th onwards!

Could you possibly add a backup screenshot for this comment please Luke? Search as I may, I haven’t yet seen the 0z ensembles, let alone at 5 am when you posted that?

As a general point, the GFS ensembles have concerned me for days now. The operationals have all been running below the mean, often skidding along the bottom, with the majority of members milder, often markedly so. It was inevitable that sooner or later an operational would go with the milder spread. Doesn’t mean it’s all over, especially as UKMO is holding the fort, but often when this happens with the GFS it’s a sign that the trend is for mild to return.

Edited January 9 by TillyS

[KTtom]

The trend is colder again for most after the weekend after a brief warm up, after that no clue whatsoever, pretty much no consistancy between models or even with the same model run to run, so no point getting too excited or dispondant after every run. As mentioned last night, I just hope we get some excitement with an 'event' and not dry spell with a slow relaxing of temperatures.

[TillyS]

This is an example from the 18z GFS. The operational is skidding along the bottom with many members milder. This has been going on for several days:

[nick sussex]

The ECM T96 hrs looks better over the Arctic than the GFS .

[SteveB]

2 minutes ago, TillyS said:

This is an example from the 18z GFS. The operational is skidding along the bottom with many members milder. This has been going on for several days:

Where have you been Tilly?

[Ali1977]

The UKMO really is a fantastic run, let’s hope this EC follows