Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[tight isobar]

The Icelandic wave still niggles  but as former the breakaway relative shortwaves look better tracked..

Edited January 9 by tight isobar

[Alexis]

Cold is 150 miles further south on the GFS so far at 102h

[Scott Ingham]

18 minutes ago, Paul said:

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions.

Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table. 

Oh I agree this morning I posted that a cold spell with some snow was nailed on and that the only thing to sort out was how severe and how long. That’s the bit now coming into the reliable timeframe but I certainly feel confident considering the 60-75% ensemble support depending on if you look at GEM or EPS ensembles that some of the horror runs showing one day of cold and transitional snow is highly unlikely 

[frosty ground]

no massive changes by day 5

[Scott Ingham]

38 minutes ago, LRD said:

Scott - got to challenge this. EC46 has been consistently showing a mild week 22 Jan. It's also been consistently showing colder potential after, too, which I've pointed out most evenings on here too. 

It's a model from the respected ECMWF and this is the model thread.

It's funny that people are allowed to look miles in the future for cold but we're not allowed to look at what might happen after the cold (I was actually looking for signs that it might extend into the week of the 22nd)

The irony is that I've been one of the most steadfast on this cold spell happening when others have panicked and given up at the slightest hint of things going wrong in the day-day runs!

I’ve never said it won’t turn mild after the 22nd LRD I’ve been focused on a pattern change to snow and cold from the 15th which is now coming into the semi reliable. 15th to the 22nd has been a big win for those who use gdsm products to predict this some 3 weeks ago.  The 22nd is all to play for but we do have support from the met office. This week is a watching brief. Like I say all to sort out is severity and longevity

[That ECM]

Much better at t132.

Edited January 9 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

Jet heading south at 132..this is what we want..hopefully better run coming up!

[jules.p]

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Is anyone else exhausted from the build up to this. It seems to be ongoing since Christmas!! In my time on here I don't ever remember such a drawn out event, and yet still the goods or day 7 and further!! We must be averaging 3/4 pages an hour now for about 19days and nought to show for it  

I'll give it an extra day and if the wishy washy charts and chopping charging are still there am packing it in. Sorry guys but the rollercoaster is designed as a short journey for a reason. This place is gone like the titanic and that Greeny high is sinking!! Let's see where the 18z goes, now rolling  

This post has really resonated with me.I feel  like I’m a lifelong follower of this forum over winter months. Unfortunately I have not had the time in my professional life to learn as much as some of you folk on here, but that doesn’t stop me absorbing every post every winter for the last nearly 15 years. Completely agree with you Jan, the buildup to this potential cold spell has felt like an eternity. I only see this as testimony to the increase of knowledge around the complexity of the different drivers and how they interact to influence our weather. Posters like Tamara and Scott, who so eloquently articulate the complexity of this science underline this.  I have absolutely loved watching this understanding develop over the years. Thanks for such an amazing forum. I will go back to reading and admiring the talent that exists on this amazing forum.

For what it’s worth from my limited understanding I see some particularly potent drivers coming together to influencing our winter weather this year in a really positive way  over the next five weeks.

[Met4Cast]

GFS isn't having it.

Onto the overnight runs.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow it's really not budging..still turning out rubbish!

[frosty ground]

 

changes are minimal Greenland high disintegrating as per the previous run

[Rocheydub]

This is a tad worrying now, I was expecting at least moderate change earlier in the run. Not looking forward to tomorrow morning's runs with my usual anticipation. 

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The Icelandic wave still niggles  but as former the breakaway relative shortwaves look better tracked..

Shutdown time again.. the gfs is either seriously misfiring on the polar field.. or it’s steadfast with the new by road!!@simple…

[Crackerjack]

Just now, Rocheydub said:

This is a tad worrying now, I was expecting at least moderate change earlier in the run. Not looking forward to tomorrow morning's runs with my usual anticipation. 

Comment just above you says much better at 132 than I read yours. Confused.com here. 

[Met4Cast]

Either MOGREPS, UKMO and the ECM/EPS all have this wrong and somehow the GFS det is correct despite the GEFS being a complete and utter mess with no discernible signal, or the GFS is just rather useless. 

I know which camp I'm in. We'll see on the overnight runs, can't discount the GFS but the evidence is certainly against it.

[Bartlett High]

GFS not budging.....surely this can't be ignored. 

 

 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Oh I agree this morning I posted that a cold spell with some snow was nailed on and that the only thing to sort out was how severe and how long. That’s the bit now coming into the reliable timeframe but I certainly feel confident considering the 60-75% ensemble support depending on if you look at GEM or EPS ensembles that some of the horror runs showing one day of cold and transitional snow is highly unlikely 

Theres a fine line between being over confident and coming across as  arrogant, simply just dismissing other peoples views when they show charts backing up that point with a sweeping remark cutting them down is a bit low!... but there you go each to their own!

[frosty ground]

GFS has lost the deeper low over the Azores 

[That ECM]

Well that went wrong  quick. T132 it looked better to me and then……

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wow it's really not budging..still turning out rubbish!

Rubbish!? -10hpa into Scotland, plenty of snow showers in favoured spots for a time. Do accept in terms of longevity it might not be as good but there is hints the colder air is being further forward and the transition day could be the 14th.

[doctormog]

Just now, Bartlett High said:

GFS not budging.....surely this can't be ignored. 

 

 

No don’t ignore it. Just accept that it is different to majority of the rest of the outcome.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The one thing I’ve learned with regards to potential cold spells is never ignore the model that shows what you don’t want.

Sometimes it’s the UKMO, sometimes the ECM and sometimes, like now, it’s the GFS.

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Either MOGREPS, UKMO and the ECM/EPS all have this wrong and somehow the GFS det is correct despite the GEFS being a complete and utter mess with no discernible signal, or the GFS is just rather useless. 

I know which camp I'm in. We'll see on the overnight runs, can't discount the GFS but the evidence is certainly against it.

If it was the other way around with the GFS showing the cold solution and the other major models not we wouldn’t even give it 10% chance . But this is the UK and if it can go wrong it will

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Either MOGREPS, UKMO and the ECM/EPS all have this wrong and somehow the GFS det is correct despite the GEFS being a complete and utter mess with no discernible signal, or the GFS is just rather useless. 

I know which camp I'm in. We'll see on the overnight runs, can't discount the GFS but the evidence is certainly against it.

It’s a case of looking at its emsembles again vs ensembles for all the other models (which are out and very good) and if the gfs ensembles again show little support it’s just another run in an atmosphere that has a shed load of things going off. Like you say onto tomorrows runs now

[tight isobar]

The good point in basis.. when the American mod op/raw- is up against most/ all other raws at given time stamps!! And also starts shortwave/ lps ejection from the weaker lobe… it’s failing....  so the gfs is on dynamic .. playing catch up.

Edited January 9 by tight isobar