Moans, ramps and banter

[10 Days Away]

I don't know why adults spend hour upon hour in the Model thread.

Surely there are better hobbies? Why spend all that time and emotional energy on an outcome you have absolutely no control over.

Genuinely mentally and physically unhealthy. 

[sheikhy]

Well ive just woken up and why did i bother taking a look at the models!!well and truly shocking!!cold blasted out the way just like that!!to be fair ec46 forecasted this coming mild spell very very well in my opinion for week 21-28 jan!!!my issue is hardly any of us could see meaningful snow by the time the cold is gone!!!!i really hope i get to see something even if it is 5cms jheez!!!!!

[snowrye]

Oh dear, it's not a happy place in the mad thread. I'm no expert in model watching, understanding etc etc, but what I do go on, is that when North America goes in the freezer, it rarely bodes well for us. The jet fires up, and the lows steam across towards up. From an imby perspective, I'm hoping for a shift northwards of 50 miles, so us snow starved south easterners, can get in on some fun. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well ive just woken up and why did i bother taking a look at the models!!well and truly shocking!!cold blasted out the way just like that!!to be fair ec46 forecasted this coming mild spell very very well in my opinion for week 21-28 jan!!!my issue is hardly any of us could see meaningful snow by the time the cold is gone!!!!i really hope i get to see something even if it is 5cms jheez!!!!!

Kasim will see a lot, but Midlands low levels is worst place to be, even the SE may not see much

[TEITS]

When I look at what the models are suggesting from a synoptic point of view compared to what we will see on the ground is disappointing. I feel as though I have been given a gift card  as a present only to find sod all on the balance!

Still I do not like the overall tone on here though. Little point in turning your frustrations onto other members. If someone wishes to spend all day viewing the models then that is up to them. Like wise if someone seeks mild or cold weather, thunderstorms or gales then again that is their choice. Same applies to any forecasting technique whether that's teleconnections or using seaweed.

The snow storm which is now modelled south was always likely to happen. Besides locations such as Manchester, Leeds, Doncaster, Humberside could well see substantial snow during Tues/Wed.

So let's be respectful to other members and realise they will be as disappointed as you. 

[Empire Of Snow]

6 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Oh dear, it's not a happy place in the mad thread. I'm no expert in model watching, understanding etc etc, but what I do go on, is that when North America goes in the freezer, it rarely bodes well for us. The jet fires up, and the lows steam across towards up. From an imby perspective, I'm hoping for a shift northwards of 50 miles, so us snow starved south easterners, can get in on some fun. 

This is another myth or at least the impact is not that severe to our weather. North America had a quite warm December with no major cold. Why then December didn't produce the goods for us? 

What's next, blame the Aleutian Low? My advice is to be more selective in what you read at the MOD thread. Regional threads have always more down to the earth posts. 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Kasim will see a lot, but Midlands low levels is worst place to be, even the SE may not see much

The south east had a dumping over a week ago, my sister was in London and texted about the snow.

I got excited here at the same time, as we'd just had a light ground frost :-/

The central Midlands is the least snowy place in the UK, even Cornwall gets more than us!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The south east had a dumping over a week ago, my sister was in London and texted about the snow.

I got excited here at the same time, as we'd just had a light ground frost

The central Midlands is the least snowy place in the UK, even Cornwall gets more than us!!

did they? though some areas had a bit on Mon 8th

[Empire Of Snow]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well ive just woken up and why did i bother taking a look at the models!!well and truly shocking!!cold blasted out the way just like that!!to be fair ec46 forecasted this coming mild spell very very well in my opinion for week 21-28 jan!!!my issue is hardly any of us could see meaningful snow by the time the cold is gone!!!!i really hope i get to see something even if it is 5cms jheez!!!!!

5cm?! No way mate unless something changes significantly. I'd be happy if we get 5cm up here but most likely it will be a couple cms. 

[snowrye]

Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

The south east had a dumping over a week ago, my sister was in London and texted about the snow.

I got excited here at the same time, as we'd just had a light ground frost

The central Midlands is the least snowy place in the UK, even Cornwall gets more than us!!

Only selected parts of the south east, it wasn't an all region covering, here I had snow showers for much of the day, that amounted to nothing. It's always nice to see falling snow, but I'd love to get out amongst a huge dumping lol 

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, I suppose I should look on the bright side...... now the models are showing a flat, mild southwesterly again in FI, it does give us the small chance that it could all flip around back to Baltic in the next few days?

I know that's rare, but it has happened??!

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

did they? though some areas had a bit on Mon 8th

Being a Midlander, I class a "dumping" as around 2mm of lying snow

[stewfox]

Does look like the models have taken a massive shift away from any pro longed cold. This has been a long chase.Going to be the usual 

Teleconnections are rubbish

Told you this wouldn't happen in early December 

Winters over

FI is always 72hrs away

Blame my mother in law

Type posts 

We are organising a group hug at 12 noon if you need it.

Would be funny if the GFS ,EcM UKMO shifted the other way today.

Edited January 13 by stewfox

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Well, I suppose I should look on the bright side...... now the models are showing a flat, mild southwesterly again in FI, it does give us the small chance that it could all flip around back to Baltic in the next few days?

I know that's rare, but it has happened??!

Being a Midlander, I class a "dumping" as around 2mm of lying snow

Aye, 1cm is good for here, doubt I'll see that

[TEITS]

9 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Does look like the models have taken a massive shift away from any pro longed cold. This has been a long chase.Going to be the usual 

Teleconnections are rubbish

Told you this wouldn't happen in early December 

Winters over

FI is always 72hrs away

Blame my mother in law

Type posts 

We are organising a group hug at 12 noon if you need it.

Would be funny if the GFS ,EcM UKMO shifted the other way today.

Some will think im barking mad but i'm not ruling out a change in the output especially for the end of the week. 

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history.

Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles.

We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell.

Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless.

As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter),  next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days.

You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle.

To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46.

I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust.

Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’.

Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away

There's always next Winter...

I've no idea but I suspect we won't have all the background drivers in our favour next Winter? It would be funny if that were the case and we managed to have a decent cold spell anyway.

This chase has been counting down for what seems like weeks and I think the biggest disappointment and problem with it is/was the expectation. The reality should be almost a week of nice Wintry weather  - If lucky I might even get a bit of snow here - but even if not, some clear frosty days and blue skies will be very welcome. Ordinarily I'd think that was great (and obviously I'll still enjoy it) but there's no denying it will be slightly tempered by the disappointment of raised expectations that seemed so confident of a special and significant cold spell. 

Whether those expectations were reasonable or not is for everyone to decide for themselves. It's difficult not to get carried away in the excitement but personally I think it's another lesson in keeping expectation on a very tight leash.

Whatever the background drivers say the most important thing for many of us is the reality of the weather in the UK. Accurately predicting that on the micro scale is still hugely problematic beyond a few days. Look at the background drivers as offering possibilities and save the real excitement for the near term - easier to say than do I know!  

[Bristawl Si]

Good to see the HP lurking to our South.

Temps along Spain's Costa del Sol forecast to hit 22c over next couple of days, the Canaries 25/26c.

If the HP pushes North we could be lucky and get a few 12/13c days in a week's time or so. Hopefully a dry, balmy south westerly.

Edited January 13 by Bristawl Si

[steveinsussex]

2 hours ago, shawty1984 said:

No, what we hate is people thinking we get loads of snow, living in North East England, I hardly ever get snow in Teesside.

But your ‘hardly ever’ to us would be loads! 
 

trust me, snow down south is rare these days 

[Biggin]

Deja vu, I might come on here once a week to see the snow / bitter cold collapse yet again to save my continuing disappointment  in the models as it  always is

[Ventnor Viking]

WARNING MOAN ALERT! 

Does anyone ever think that model watching is pointless? With all the money they have spent on upgrades etc it just feels as though there hasn't been much progress since the 90's. The inconsistency past day 5 is dreadful and is no different from the 90's. I love the weather but model watching is rolling a dice from run to run and it doesn't mean anything now it feels like when anything slightly different from the bulk standard westerlies are on the cards. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

32 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think the hope of wedges remaining to the north with colder air across the UK beyond the 20th can be discounted now, this is a very strong signal from the EPS for a return to milder, wetter weather. 

The Canadian PV lobe being pulled towards Siberia (likely thanks to the recent warming) is the dominating signal and will override any potential blocking. 

Late January into early February however does still hold potential for a return to more blocked conditions with this next momentum surge. 

Before all of that though - A week of cold weather across the whole of the UK with the potential for snowfall just about anywhere. 

So the background signals have been cancelled out now because of the pv on the move? So all that hype and then a raging westerly for how long? 

If it can go qrong

[MidnightSnow]

At the very least it's been fun on here in the past couple of weeks (for me anyway) - Just the thought of potential heavy snow makes this depressing month a bit more exciting, even if it's all a fugazi



Kinda like being in the casino and being up for a few hours but ultimately coming away empty-handed. Doesn't mean those few hours of delusion weren't fun  

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

If it can go wrong it will. So the pv on the move and its muting background drivers.

I think this place hypes everything up so much and then a slight hint at a change and before you know it the mods in full on zonal.

The drivers have always pointed towards a lag in blocking but alot of people on hear either have no idea how to read informative posts or it goes over you're heads because the drum that's been banged this morning in hear is doom.

Im going to sit it out and see what happens we have a wk of cold air lets see what happens nearer the time 

 

[joggs]

51 minutes ago, TEITS said:

When I look at what the models are suggesting from a synoptic point of view compared to what we will see on the ground is disappointing. I feel as though I have been given a gift card  as a present only to find sod all on the balance!

Still I do not like the overall tone on here though. Little point in turning your frustrations onto other members. If someone wishes to spend all day viewing the models then that is up to them. Like wise if someone seeks mild or cold weather, thunderstorms or gales then again that is their choice. Same applies to any forecasting technique whether that's teleconnections or using seaweed.

The snow storm which is now modelled south was always likely to happen. Besides locations such as Manchester, Leeds, Doncaster, Humberside could well see substantial snow during Tues/Wed.

So let's be respectful to other members and realise they will be as disappointed as you. 

Totally agree TEITS with the finger pointing but one or two do set themselves up for it constantly banging the epic cold drum. Also, the same can be said of the people who just turn up on the mad thread to snipe.

Anyway,I suppose it's a cold week coming up then a mobile set up that I don't think will last long. I also think the models are overdoing the amount of energy coming at us.

The saying "cold,once in, is hard to displace" could be tested.

I suppose longer term there can only be upgrades now.

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, joggs said:

Totally agree TEITS with the finger pointing but one or two do set themselves up for it constantly banging the epic cold drum. Also, the same can be said of the people who just turn up on the mad thread to snipe.

Anyway,I suppose it's a cold week coming up then a mobile set up that I don't think will last long. I also think the models are overdoing the amount of energy coming at us.

The saying "cold,once in, is hard to displace" could be tested.

I suppose longer term there can only be upgrades now.

For me, this was always looking like a 1 week cold spell. It's actually already been pretty cold the last week though nothing to write home about. Good Jan really with promise for Feb for coldies

[KTtom]

20 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Deja vu, I might come on here once a week to see the snow / bitter cold collapse yet again to save my continuing disappointment  in the models as it  always is

Even the so called 'northerly' is getting watered down run by run! It'll be a bloody southerly at this rate by the time we get to Wednesday!