Moans, ramps and banter

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

which is another weather urban myth 

Yes, cold air can't deflect big lows the impact is only in terms of keeping the surface cold for slightly longer.

[10 Days Away]

3 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Brrr

If all I get out of this spell is 5cm I'd rather it not bother. A good dumping or nothing for me. I think I was spoilt in my youth. 

Edited January 12 by 10 Days Away

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Brrr

5cm of disruptive snow 

[CoventryWeather]

5-10cm of snow - in southern Scotland and Northern England! 

The model thread will NOT be happy with that! 

Edited January 12 by CoventryWeather

[RJBingham]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

5cm of disruptive snow 

Ehem, that's 5 to 10cm 

[johncam]

38 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Controversial opinion probably, but heyho - I don't think this cold spell, by its end, is going to be inconsequential. 

This week has been cold, colder than average, and next week will be as well, with the lows in my area ranging -1 to -4/5c. Daytime maxes around 0-1c during the week. That IS very cold, especially for London. Considering the average low is around 4c, and the high is 8c or so, that's a solid 8c below average! It'll be colder elsewhere in the country, bear in mind, looking at -8c to -10c perhaps! That is frigid for the UK!...I honestly don't know what some people expect for Britain? We are not Northern Norway, or Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Eastern Europe, etc...so unless the stars and planets align in some sort of miraculous once-in-a-century event, we aren't going to get the type of properly deep freezes with thick snowfall for days that such parts of the world get. 

So, by the end of next week, we'll have had effectively 2 entire weeks below average temps, with proper wintry conditions, which is not to be sniffed at IMO...it's just not been good for snow. For most of us, no snow at all...which is indeed a real shame, but its to be expected IMO - snow is not common in the vast majority of England. Many Winter seasons occur without any sort of cold spell like this one, let alone snow. 

We missed any real cold in the central belt just been cloudy and damp , had 1 air frost so hopefully the cold 5 days or so coming up we will  at least see a frost and the sun 

15 minutes ago, Paul said:

*Whispers quietly* 

The cold weather hasn't even arrived yet.

[noggin]

9 minutes ago, 10 Days Away said:

I hear you. I haven't seen that it's all gone wrong to be honest so I'll wait and see. 

At least with summer storms you get the possiblity no more than 10 days out, so less of a build up to a possible let down.

Everyones happier because of the sun and usually (not always) catching one is a car ride away for the more keen chasers.

With snow the signals and excitement for some starts late autumn. Way to long to be invested in something we have no control over. Just feels bleak at the moment.

“’Bleak” is the word! Not quite the sort of “bleak midwinter” that I was hoping for! I am in a really moany mood……. Perhaps I should set up camp in this thread.

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Ehem, that's 5 to 10cm 

a mere dusting 

[WelfordRd]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

true! the past 5 years, we've had around 3cm of snow

True, when I hear other moan I say come live in Hinckely, we miss it to the North, South, East and West lol

[noggin]

What a miserable forecast from the Met Office….not a flake to be seen.

[raz.org.rain]

29 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

5-10cm of snow - in southern Scotland and Northern England! 

The model thread will NOT be happy with that! 

What would they be happy with? That's a pretty impressive amount all things considered.

1 hour ago, Downburst said:

well the seasonal looks ok, has to be some very fine weather in there May/June/July. Just fly out of UK Ireland based on the T320 charts on the model thread, guys in there will sniff out any inclement weather well in advance of the models (often wrong, have a bias, more runs needed, bin it, hasn't a clue, oh I like this model, it's "covered itself in glory" or it "hasn't covered itself in glory, will it back down? a stonker run, it's not right upstream with the energy, the GEM is all right, they have access to more information then we have) Do this and not a raindrop or cold wind for certain.

 

I've learned my lesson from 2023, I'm not holding my breath.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Roll on some warmer weather, this cold weather with nothing to show for it is just too much.

If I start to hear of the mention of a ssw or whatever it’s called at the back end of winter I shall loose it  

Me too!! I don't want no sswtv thingy!

[rain_shadow]

To save time this week, I just check how many users are on the MOD thread, if <100, outlook for coldies is dire. 120 ok, 150+ wow.  Only takes 10 sec to know the weather next week.

(this only works during the day ) 

Edited January 12 by rain_shadow

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, 10 Days Away said:

I ventured into the Model thread but it's too chaotic.

I ventured into the Model Highlights thread but it's too technical.

I'll hang out here. Just let me know at T12 if I might get snow. Thanks

Welcome home x

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, noggin said:

I have been on here for nearly 20 years, although I don’t post much. This has to be the biggest let-down I have ever seen. Nor have I been able to get any sense from the MAD thread - the same runs have some people saying that there will be lots of snow and some people saying it will be dry. I have decided that I will refer to the Met office forecasts if I want any sense. I am really peed off with how I have allowed myself to be put through all this. NEVER AGAIN!

This is how I feel with every cold spell and yet I go back for more . This time I'm still managing to keep an emotional distance though. I don't believe it so won't be a wreck when this week passes with nothing 

[beefy201]

Model moaners have gone quiet do love the chase but omg so may experts so called … so In conclusion the week ahead will be cold and the usual favoured spots getting some snow but although I know this will fall on deaf years why oh why do people pin all there hopes on  models … weather forecasting as alway lad been an difficult science but watching the drama in the model watching is better than Still game and what a hoot that was 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, 10 Days Away said:

Pretty sure there was a BFTE modelled by the big three and disappeared with about 48 hours to go a few years ago.

That's the one that got me and changing to never believe in it ever again. That one REALLY hurt!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

47 minutes ago, 10 Days Away said:

If all I get out of this spell is 5cm I'd rather it not bother. A good dumping or nothing for me. I think I was spoilt in my youth. 

Ruddy hell I never even see 1 inch here so I'll be happy with that Thanks!! But would prefer another 2010 7 inches. I nearly cried with happiness at that one!!

11 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

To save time this week, I just check how many users are on the MOD thread, if <100, outlook for coldies is dire. 120 ok, 150+ wow.  Only takes 10 sec to know the weather next week.

(this only works during the day ) 

I did that earlier

[Penguin16]

1947 and 1978 were touted last couple of days in mod thread. I had a feeling it would go its up then.

[rain_shadow]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Ruddy hell I never even see 1 inch here so I'll be happy with that Thanks!! But would prefer another 2010 7 inches. I nearly cried with happiness at that one!!

I did that earlier

we need a smile button

[mountain shadow]

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping February delivers.

[WINTRY WALES]

Not trying to moan but ignoring the teleconnection possibilities and just looking out of the window, the next week, in realism terms will be standard winter cold weather. Disappointing for now let’s hope the science comes to fruition and the next few couple of weeks gives us all something to reminisce about next year and beyond 

[markw2680]

Personally if it’s just dry and cold next week and then the return to mild wet crap I’ll be done with the models, all the hype and build up only to get dry and cold time after time has took its toll on me tbh, I’m even loosing interest now as it’s just talk of breakdown etc on here. We get weeks of a chase with exciting looking charts only to get watered down as it gets nearer, happens pretty much every time.

sorry for the down beat post but just all feels a bit of a waste of time 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

13 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

we need a smile button

No darling we need a make it snow button!!!

[noggin]

25 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

This is how I feel with every cold spell and yet I go back for more . This time I'm still managing to keep an emotional distance though. I don't believe it so won't be a wreck when this week passes with nothing 

Yes, I will always keep coming back for more too, despite my earlier tantrum!