Moans, ramps and banter

[East Lancs Rain]

Tuesday was sunny but yesterday and especially today have been really cloudy. Easterlies are normally very sunny in May and June here but not so much in winter. A bit milder than earlier in the week, currently 5.7°C with 74% humidity, but the cloud is making it depressing. Really fed up of winter now and just want some 10-15C and sunny spring days.

[raz.org.rain]

23 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Tuesday was sunny but yesterday and especially today have been really cloudy. Easterlies are normally very sunny in May and June here but not so much in winter. A bit milder than earlier in the week, currently 5.7°C with 74% humidity, but the cloud is making it depressing. Really fed up of winter now and just want some 10-15C and sunny spring days.

You can understand why some are so dead set against the idea of a late SSW as it'll just prolong these conditions well into spring!

[reef]

24 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

You can understand why some are so dead set against the idea of a late SSW as it'll just prolong these conditions well into spring!

I've no idea where this late SSW = a bad spring nonsense comes from. The stratosphere warms and the polar vortex breaks up every spring.

The same goes for SSW = cold spell for the UK in winter. 

As always, they can have an effect, but its predominantly determined by a combination of factors. Yes, it can shake up the pattern, but it could quite as easily lead to us being in a warm pattern rather than a cold one.

[markw2680]

Personally I cannot stand northerly’s it’s always just wishbone crap, I know people say disturbances set up in the flow but for many central areas it’s poo. I’d take a big dump even if it turns milder after, much rather that than just boring cold blue sky crap lol

[Chasbrown]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean is very nice!!!looks like ukmo at 168 hours!!!!!

OK so it's supposed to be turning cold from this Sunday?! So why isn't that shown in the temperatures on the BBC website? Even met office is slightly colder than BBC. Confused.com 

[Premiere Neige]

11 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

OK so it's supposed to be turning cold from this Sunday?! So why isn't that shown in the temperatures on the BBC website? Even met office is slightly colder than BBC. Confused.com 

Go with met office. BBC website/app is a waste of webspace. Although you will likely see the temperatures adjusted down closer to the time. My experience of the BBC app is after about 5 days they generally just show around the monthly average temperature wise...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The models point to a cold week but bbc weather app forecasts don’t reflect this. 5C in Essex next week is only 1C below average.

Some on here were talking about ice days earlier.

It’s quite  amazing that when the models pick up a mild signal, it’s rarely wrong!

Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts

[PsychedelicTony]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts

The met website local temperatures are fairly accurate. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

The met website local temperatures are fairly accurate. 

For 48 hrs yes!

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts

Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.

And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps.

[JimBob]

6 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.

And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps.

The apps are good for spotting trends and are useful despite what some people may think! 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec 12z plots-spag… mustard upto the 22nd.. after that pick your pert/ member??!!…    A cold spell is coming… the jackpot question- still remains, how notable.. n, how prolonged…    Keep watching.

I wish you wrote the met extended.

[tight isobar]

Just now, That ECM said:

I wish you wrote the met extended.

They don’t

[MATTWOLVES 3]

35 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.

And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps.

Lol seriously...I have people say to me hey matt! In 7 days time it's gonna be 28c with 8 hrs of sunshine and a 5mph SETLY wind. Then in winter...I've just heard there's gonna be 5 hours of steady snowfall and a temp of 0c 10 days from now!

And I'm like...whatttttttt!!!!!!

And yep you guessed it people relying on weather apps! Then when it goes all wrong they're complaining  nobody can forecast the weather anymore!

And you tell me apps are a good thing? I'd rather Start rocking in my chair deliriously from model fatigue then have to put up with that mate  

Edited January 11 by MATTWOLVES 3

[TwisterGirl81]

On 07/01/2024 at 13:12, SunSean said:

Last 37 days accumulated sunshine comparison-

Cork airport, Ireland- 81 hours

Eastbourne, East Sussex, England- 24 hours

Charlwood, Surrey, South East England- 11 hours

Cork over 3x sunnier than East Sussex & over 8x sunnier than Surrey

Lol

Wow, what is happening in sunny Eastbourne?

[SunSean]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

Wow, what is happening in sunny Eastbourne?

I was using an amateur station and found out they were over reporting their figures massively! Lol. The new table I have is more accurate and I'll be posting it just after 10pm, so keep a look out

[TwisterGirl81]

14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Lol seriously...I have people say to me hey matt! In 7 days time it's gonna be 28c with 8 hrs of sunshine and a 5mph SETLY wind. Then in winter...I've just heard there's gonna be 5 hours of steady snowfall and a temp of 0c 10 days from now!

And I'm like...whatttttttt!!!!!!

And yep you guessed it people relying on weather apps! Then when it goes all wrong they're complaining  nobody can forecast the weather anymore!

And you tell me apps are a good thing? I'd rather Start rocking in my chair deliriously from model fatigue then have to put up with that mate  

Thankgod I live in Devon where it rarely snows apart from the moors let alone good accumulations. Even when it’s cold  99.99% of the time it’s rain here and then we watch it turn to snow further north no hoping from me apart from seeing an early warm start to spring.

I just looked at the latest gfs and imagined toys being thrown in a certain thread 

2 minutes ago, SunSean said:

I was using an amateur station and found out they were over reporting their figures massively! Lol. The new table I have is more accurate and I'll be posting it just after 10pm, so keep a look out

In cork? Wow, why would they do that? Are they a netweather member?

[Fozfoster]

This is the first year, I’ve been thinking this ,it’s probably crept up on me, I used to get excited with the model thread and believe that what I saw and read was going to happen, but now after 15 years on here, the climate is changing , new technology and the super Met Office, deep dive on YouTube my visits here are becoming less.  From your full-time lurker from now on .

[Gizzy]

Just now, Fozfoster said:

This is the first year, I’ve been thinking this ,it’s probably crept up on me, I used to get excited with the model thread and believe that what I saw and read was going to happen, but now after 15 years on here, the climate is changing , new technology and the super Met Office, deep dive on YouTube my visits here are becoming less.  From your full-time lurker from now on .

Don't blame you one bit.

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, Gizzy said:

Don't blame you one bit.

Quite ironic, I got the 15 year badge the other day

[TwisterGirl81]

4 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

This is the first year, I’ve been thinking this ,it’s probably crept up on me, I used to get excited with the model thread and believe that what I saw and read was going to happen, but now after 15 years on here, the climate is changing , new technology and the super Met Office, deep dive on YouTube my visits here are becoming less.  From your full-time lurker from now on .

It’s much easier when you try to be realistic…anything 5 days out can change in the blink of an eye

[HurricaneSteve]

yes, i remember the models will throw up "day after tomorrow" style hurricanes at the long range, that of course, never happen

with all the uncertainty at the moment, i think the reliable time frame shrink to maybe 4 days

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

It’s much easier when you try to be realistic…anything 5 days out can change in the blink of an eye

Yep, took me 15 years for the penny to drop…….always was a slow learner. Lol

[Gizzy]

7 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Quite ironic, I got the 15 year badge the other day

Congratulations, so you will have seen the changes then and i can possibly grasp what you are relating to.

Edited January 11 by Gizzy

[Rob 79812010]

Looking at the ensembles its saying below average to 23rd then slightly above till 27th. Beeb is up to 11 degrees by 27th. Am starting to question why I keep obsessing  about all the  model output. The forecasters seem to see stuff that isn't there. And they're probably right I reckon. So many times the F1 shows Narnia. It happens once in a blue moon. If I'm wrong I'll be back straight back on the thread