Moans, ramps and banter

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

 impossible now to get a quick overview of latest runs so having to do it the long way now ! 

It is possible, you just put 99% of the posters on ignore - all I mostly see now are posts from people who know what they are talking about and who post good, analytical content with no hype or hysteria (which is the way that the thread should be). I think I may have the largest ignore list on this forum ........

[NeilN]

Why is the BBC putting high temps (5-7c) when it's due to be colder? (South West England).

[Paul]

Can I recommend the highlights thread?

 

[AltonMatthew]

Model Downgrades incoming as expected. Yet again too many got carried away with initial signs not understanding that yet again the models will flip or push the date out. Im holding no hope than a few days maybe of colder temps but nothing special as usual. 

[cobbett]

30 minutes ago, Buzz said:

It is possible, you just put 99% of the posters on ignore - all I mostly see now are posts from people who know what they are talking about and who post good, analytical content with no hype or hysteria (which is the way that the thread should be). I think I may have the largest ignore list on this forum ........

Yep - do use that but obviously not enough tho the problem is generally when an FI GFS precipitation chart appears showing a foot of snow for some part of the country only

[Reefseeker]

25 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can I recommend the highlights thread?

Can I very much agree with @Paul; it's the first place I go, along with my regional thread, to get a feel for what's going on. Then, if I have time, I brave the MAD thread!

[Buzz]

While I appreciate the idea behind the Highlights thread, it does depend on people marking relevant posts in the model thread as Insightful (and not abusing the feature .....). I prefer to see useful posts as soon as they appear in the main thread (sometimes even before anyone has Liked them, or Thanked them, or marked as Insightful).

That's not knocking the Highlights thread either, it's useful and long may it continue. It just doesn't always fit my personal requirements, that's all.

 

 

[SussexSnowman]

I find the Model Highlights thread more owing to sanity and reality. I always go there for the reason that the posts are more informative with real context and perspective. Part of me wants to get carried away with the hysteria of an incoming snow event (personal bias of course) but I know I can't take a model a week out as gospel given how extremely changeable our weather is these days. I do admire the posters emotional investment in the models. 

[Buzz]

9 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

I find the Model Highlights thread more owing to sanity and reality. I always go there for the reason that the posts are more informative with real context and perspective. Part of me wants to get carried away with the hysteria of an incoming snow event (personal bias of course) but I know I can't take a model a week out as gospel given how extremely changeable our weather is these days. I do admire the posters emotional investment in the models. 

The model thread is fine if you have most of the posters on ignore.

[Mr snowman 2018]

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past 

[Bald Eagle]

1 minute ago, Buzz said:

The model thread is fine if you have most of the posters on ignore.

As I do. There are a handful of very good people. The rest are just noise. Wheels coming off again at the moment I see

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past 

Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

[Paul]

I do think sometimes, some people miss one key point: It's a discussion forum.

If you're looking for a concise local forecast, a forecast with no bias towards where people live or what weather type they're interested in, you aren't going to get that in a discussion thread. 

There are lots of great places to get those things, inc on this website. But to expect the model thread to be an open, active, fun and busy thread, along with being perfectly concise  and with no bias ( either based on poster location or weather type preference) is just an impossible ask, and always has been.

[Mr snowman 2018]

Just now, A.J said:

Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

It’s not negative at all I’ve been following charts for 15 years and I know where this is going we all get our hopes up every single year every time we see decent outputs but it gets watered down and eventually we get nothing we haven’t had anything significant UK wide since  2018 and I can’t see that changing either 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Gfs is completely terrible even with all the background signals the UK can’t seem to grasp a cold spell safe to say winters in the UK are a thing of the past 

A couple of runs and this is what we get again...when will some ever learn...we really do make ourselves look so clueless at times!

The models are struggling beyond day 6 with set up full stop. And they very often do this when the NH is out of sorts.

Interesting little thought from me also here regarding the drivers becoming less favourable in a couple of weeks time..ie mjo less favourable! Currently another possibility of a further warming of the strat which could serve to override the negative mjo impacts by perhaps keeping us cold! Then we look at the potential for said drivers to improve again as we move into Feb with mjo on the move and rise yet again..the possibilities are endless and do you not think with all that's going on the NWP is not gonna struggle? Throw another warming event in and they're gonna be all over the place even more!

I'm not gonna say keep the faith or have a little patience this time..your old enough to make up your own minds and decisions..but to my eyes the overall pattern is very exciting to say the least.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

17 minutes ago, A.J said:

Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

This is the 'moans and ramps' thread though tbf. So, you're gonna get moans in this one!

 

Edited January 9 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Gizzy]

20 minutes ago, A.J said:

Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

Moans and Ramps ??

[Gowon]

30 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

A couple of runs and this is what we get again...when will some ever learn...we really do make ourselves look so clueless at times!

The models are struggling beyond day 6 with set up full stop. And they very often do this when the NH is out of sorts.

Interesting little thought from me also here regarding the drivers becoming less favourable in a couple of weeks time..ie mjo less favourable! Currently another possibility of a further warming of the strat which could serve to override the negative mjo impacts by perhaps keeping us cold! Then we look at the potential for said drivers to improve again as we move into Feb with mjo on the move and rise yet again..the possibilities are endless and do you not think with all that's going on the NWP is not gonna struggle? Throw another warming event in and they're gonna be all over the place even more!

I'm not gonna say keep the faith or have a little patience this time..your old enough to make up your own minds and decisions..but to my eyes the overall pattern is very exciting to say the least.

Can somebody give them the right post code? They seem to be losing their way.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Can somebody give them the right post code? They seem to be losing their way.

I would imagine that holds true for both the models and some of the posters

[Gowon]

Just now, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I would imagine that holds true for both the models and some of the posters

Not me Matt - I'm really hoping you're right, but i've seen mild win out so many times regardless of all the promising drivers.

[Weatherman_93]

22 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Can somebody give them the right post code? They seem to be losing their way.

I would hazard a guess there are genuine tears when the models show a sign of any mildness incoming.

[cheeky_monkey]

my snow free paradise is about to end ..just started snowing with 15-20cm forecast by tomorrow morning..then temps plunge close to -40c by the weekend 

[Lord Baltimore]

Looks like spring arrives for the Janners next week. Time to get the sunbed cleaned up.

[GokouD]

8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

But like you said highly unlikely to play out like that,personally would prefer it to miss the UK all together and for us all to stay in the cold air.

What's the point though, if we don't get any snow? If it's not going to snow I'd rather it be mild so I don't freeze to death on the school run

[Rob 79812010]

13 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Well I would like to take my chances on troughs and disturbances coming down from the North than a snow to rain event.anyway day 10 stuff and subject to much change.

Me too! My location awful for the latter