Moans, ramps and banter

[winterfreak]

I don’t understand the technicalities to make an informed post on MOD thread but this I do know, until it’s down to T12/18 I don’t get excited and even then it can go toots up! I don’t get caught up in the hype anymore. Been led up that garden path far too often..

[cobbett]

32 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I don’t understand the technicalities to make an informed post on MOD thread but this I do know, until it’s down to T12/18 I don’t get excited and even then it can go toots up! I don’t get caught up in the hype anymore. Been led up that garden path far too often..

Yes seen it many times - usually the wobble starts with one model and gains traction with the others over the coming days. Still if it’s cool and dry rather than cold and dry then I’d be happy with that 

[Bristawl Si]

Lack of instability on the charts, to our south and east, seems to be the key (snow making) ingredient that is missing.

UK High with dry, cold, sometimes sunny days and frosts at night, seems to be the weather for next 10 days or so. Imby - colder than average but not overly cold - well that's what i'm seeing fwiw.

[Winter2009]

For my sanity please provide the link so I can block a high number of , well let’s just call them individuals ! 

[10 Days Away]

I don't know how people in the model thread have the time or stamina to live in there for 18 hours a day.

I saw one very active member with 3k posts admit they didn't know what a east or west based NAO was yet was happy to give frame by frame analysis of each run.

I just want a 78/79 Dec/Jan or a Dec 2010 spell and if not I can't be bothered with a transient snow to rain scenario or a pot luck 10 mile wide streamer. If that happens great, if not I'll switch off until the summer and hope for a few storms.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Winter2009 said:

For my sanity please provide the link so I can block a high number of , well let’s just call them individuals ! 

dosen't work properly 

[ANYWEATHER]

Another day, another set of model runs for everyone to argue about on the mod thread , and yet another day to argue if we are going to get another ,1947, 62/63 ,81/82 ,2010 etc ,on models which only show anything worth talking about Snowmageddon in about three weeks time....!

[ScottSnow]

3 minutes ago, TN26 said:

I don't know how people in the model thread have the time or stamina to live in there for 18 hours a day.

I saw one very active member with 3k posts admit they didn't know what a east or west based NAO was yet was happy to give frame by frame analysis of each run.

I just want a 78/79 Dec/Jan or a Dec 2010 spell and if not I can't be bothered with a transient snow to rain scenario or a pot luck 10 mile wide streamer. If that happens great, if not I'll switch off until the summer and hope for a few storms.

The amount of time people must spend in there is mind boggling.

There has been a lot of back slapping the past few days, when we are still over a week away from seeing it through.

 I’ve seen so many ‘nailed on’ cold spells go belly up to believe it yet. I’ve seen it go belly up within 90hrs so always try to proceed with caution.

I would love to see a notable spell of cold weather on par with Jan 10, Dec 10, Mar 13 etc. Hopefully it comes to fruition this time.

[SussexSnowman]

I am just thankful to be waking up and the picture outside is dry. UK has just been one big wet sponge last month or so. So would be good to dry off before any significant wintry weather emerges. 

[Weatherman_93]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Another day, another set of model runs for everyone to argue about on the mod thread , and yet another day to argue if we are going to get another ,1947, 62/63 ,81/82 ,2010 etc ,on models which only show anything worth talking about Snowmageddon in about three weeks time....!

'We are heading into the freezer'

'Things are looking very interesting'

'Time to get excited'

 

[Methuselah]

Come on, peeps, it's only the weather; and a couple of less-than-perfect model runs: 

Edited January 5 by Methuselah

[cobbett]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Come on, peeps, it's only the weather; and a couple of less-than-perfect model runs: 

Will be carnage when UKMO/ ECM starts backtracking

[January Snowstorm]

Amazing how the moans end up in here but incessant ramping is always left alone. Yet this is also meant to be the ramp thread

[I remember Atlantic 252]

horrible drizzle a risk for wednesday, for NW Midlands, like a north sea filth setup

[snowblizzard]

A sobering post on the mod thread from JH

Little prospect of deep cold over UK during the next 10 days!  

Always an objective view from this ex MET man.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Yep the Ramp thread , I’ll let you know when I see something to ramp up …

[sheikhy]

Knowing our luck we get no easterly and then the greenland high and amplification just erodes as we get closer just like it does every winter regardless of favourable background drivers!!!lets see.....

[NewEra21]

Watch the Greeks freeze while we’re left in no mans land with high pressure around the UK.

Not that that’s a bad outcome, as we don’t need anymore rain. But it’s something that’s happened far too frequently in recent years.

Edited January 5 by NewEra21

[andy989]

So today it looks like we ARE in fact allowed to point out potential negative outcomes (if you’re after cold). 

[Neilsouth]

Day after day there were a few people here posting the Ensembles with much delight, but again as I said before they can go just as wrong the next day, and so they have! An almost complete u-turn! 

[ScottSnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Isn’t this just typical of the GFS though.

shows you filth one day then goes AWOL to suddenly showing the filth again.its either picked up a new signal or its going off on one.not to be discounted of course,but I think its been barking up the wrong tree for the last few runs.

we will see.

It happens every year.

[NewEra21]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

Day after day there were a few people here posting the Ensembles with much delight, but again as I said before they can go just as wrong the next day, and so they have! An almost complete u-turn! 

The ensembles are so fickle, they can have almost complete agreement and tight clustering for cold run after run. And just like that they flip.

We’ve seen it with so many potential cold spells!

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Day after day there were a few people here posting the Ensembles with much delight, but again as I said before they can go just as wrong the next day, and so they have! An almost complete u-turn! 

Don't know what you're seeing but the ecm ensembles have upgraded and ukmo is very good.please show me where the u-turn is

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mostly rain free 06Z, apart from perhaps this wed 10th, even at this stage cold high, but snow free away from east coast

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mostly rain free 06Z, apart from perhaps this wed 10th, even at this stage cold high, but snow free away from east coast

 

Which is, IMO, the most important thing.