Moans, ramps and banter

[10 Days Away]

4 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Been at day 10 the last month lol

[joggs]

Yes,it's always at day 10

You can't say that on that thread though,get lynched lol.

The main culprits ramping away make me laugh. You could see a few days ago it was getting watered down,which I pointed out with some explanation.

I do feel we'll have some decent shots at cold to come though.

 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Last 37 days accumulated sunshine comparison-

Cork airport, Ireland- 81 hours

Eastbourne, East Sussex, England- 24 hours

Charlwood, Surrey, South East England- 11 hours

Cork over 3x sunnier than East Sussex & over 8x sunnier than Surrey

Lol

This is really quite remarkable given the SW-ly type of the past month. One would expect Cork to be particularly exposed to SW-lies so it's puzzling that it hasn't been as dull.

Cork approaching 3 hours of sun per day which given the absolute max is 8 hours in December is presumably quite sunny for the time of year.

Edited January 7 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Aahhh, don't worry ,get a couple of weeks of hot weather in the Summer, water boards will be bleeting on about lack of water and drought conditions

The useless water companies can't cope with anything.

Our local one went into meltdown when the cold spell of December 2022 suddenly turned mild, something that's happened who knows how many times since the late 70s. They couldn't cope and we lost water for two days.

And in February, under extremely benign conditions (mild, dry) the same happened again.

Utterly useless and seemingly, from what I can see, more interested in lining the pockets of CEOs and shareholders than maintaining their system properly.

 

 

Edited January 7 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

17 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

more interested in lining the pockets of CEOs and shareholders than maintaining their system properly

A familiar tale across pretty much the entirety of Britain's infrastructure/public services by this point. 

Rail being another notable culprit for this. Most of our rail networks / lines are owned by European companies who then use the profits from our ridiculous ticket prices to subsidise the partly government-funded rail lines in their own countries. 

Could it be that our Government MPs have vested interests and shares in these companies so are quite happy to see such companies getting wealthier as it benefits themselves in turn, at the expense of the British public having a more expensive rail network that's also WORSE in quality? Who knows eh....

[Summer8906]

16 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

A familiar tale across pretty much the entirety of Britain's infrastructure/public services by this point. 

Rail being another notable culprit for this. Most of our rail networks / lines are owned by European companies who then use the profits from our ridiculous ticket prices to subsidise the partly government-funded rail lines in their own countries. 

Could it be that our Government MPs have vested interests and shares in these companies so are quite happy to see such companies getting wealthier as it benefits themselves in turn, at the expense of the British public having a more expensive rail network that's also WORSE in quality? Who knows eh....

 

I know what you mean but I don't want to get into the question of which country "owns" them as that's not really relevant. If the shareholders are British or German, that's neither here nor there.

After all, the UK arguably led the way, and still does, within Europe for rapacious and exploitative forms of capitalism: Mrs T was one of ours, of course...

Edited January 7 by Summer8906

[Jason M]

5 hours ago, joggs said:

Yes,it's always at day 10

You can't say that on that thread though,get lynched lol.

The main culprits ramping away make me laugh. You could see a few days ago it was getting watered down,which I pointed out with some explanation.

I do feel we'll have some decent shots at cold to come though.

 

It is coming forward now in the models, but any severity is being eroded run by run. I think we are basically looking at a two day bog standard northerly which for most will just be a couple of cold / dry days. 

Still time for things to reverse of course, but the trend is not currently our friend. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

again, any decent snow always deep FI and not coming closer, chance of a few flurries Mon night, but probably just wet the ground here, then turning a bit milder from Wed with temps 6-8C

[joggs]

What are the rampers like in the mod thread. The promised land has always stayed around 10 days away. Some of us get told to not stick by the op runs(I get that) then when winter nirvana appears,it's all systems go......

Edited January 8 by joggs

[BIGDOG2]

Hi Rishi it’s the Cobra team here we need to call a meeting no not the end of the week that will be two late we need it now I have just seen the models on net weather oh dear we are going to need help 

[raz.org.rain]

On 07/01/2024 at 13:57, joggs said:

Yes,it's always at day 10

You can't say that on that thread though,get lynched lol.

The main culprits ramping away make me laugh. You could see a few days ago it was getting watered down,which I pointed out with some explanation.

I do feel we'll have some decent shots at cold to come though.

 

I guess it's all relative too. For example, I would say it's pretty darned cold right now, but some people would seemingly rather have what Scandinavia is having.

[Angel H]

12 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I guess it's all relative too. For example, I would say it's pretty darned cold right now, but some people would seemingly rather have what Scandinavia is having.

Some people: I'd like to have snow on the ground. Can it be like a meter deep so kids could do sledging and build snowman?

Also that some people: I don't want the snow to be that thick on the road, how can I drive to work in such condition...

 

Got to admit snow is beautiful but it's really annoying if you really think about it...

 

[raz.org.rain]

5 minutes ago, Angel Hoilday said:

Some people: I'd like to have snow on the ground. Can it be like a meter deep so kids could do sledging and build snowman?

Also that some people: I don't want the snow to be that thick on the road, how can I drive to work in such condition...

 

Got to admit snow is beautiful but it's really annoying if you really think about it...

 

We have to be realistic, deep snowfall was an exceptionally rare occurrence even before the days of climate change!

[Downburst]

Well it is cold, that is for sure, next 4 days about 2 to 4 degrees colder than normal, a brief return to normal and then possible return to 2 to 4 below normal based on the mean ECM run.

The MAD thread is more about getting excited about each run then the output really. If I was to use the 00 CM run mean in there I'd be run out of it as that is the previous run, it's all about the latest run and assuming that the +7 or 8 day chart is now correct. Just fun for folks really. I can't be inputting in there as I've nothing to say that hasn't been said at this time of year

a typical chart for this week

[JoeShmoe]

id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !

[Angel H]

Just now, raz.org.rain said:

We have to be realistic, deep snowfall was an exceptionally rare occurrence even before the days of climate change!

The British Isles taught me one thing: if the ground is dry during winter, you should be grateful.

[SollyOlly]

31 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I guess it's all relative too. For example, I would say it's pretty darned cold right now, but some people would seemingly rather have what Scandinavia is having.

Yep, that's me (!). But it'll all be the other way round come Spring/ Summer, when the heat arrives...

Anyway, I'm happy enough with the cold atm, would obviously prefer it to be of the sunny variety but at least we have a reasonably seasonal chill in the air. It is winter, after all...and this is more or less average rather than super-cold...

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !

Totally agree, time after time those on the other thread celerbrate during our rare cold spells when lows get modelled further south and miss the uk prolonging the cold, then we get a poder puff slow warning up and breakdown..lets get the northerly in then an Atlantic low next day! Lest see some action for a change!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !

definitely agree! that's why I never want lows to track further south with each run, we end up missing out and then normally turns milder with a whimper, bring on the attacks from the SW

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !

Fair enough.

But given we have had one of the wettest Oct-Jan periods on record, anything dry at all is a blessing by this point. 

Just to have a few consecutive days with nothing falling out of the sky is a win, in my books! In our maritime climate, that dryness generally requires colder/wintry weather. Mildness+wetness go hand in hand in winter in Britain, unfortunately. Not always, but the vast majority of the time. 

I wouldn't call this spell "really cold weather", not in my area of the country anyway. Highs of 3-6c and lows of around zero or just below. It's a bit below average, but not at all unexpected or particularly unusual for Jan. Basically the Winter equivalent of getting a few consecutive days of 27-30c weather in a summer month.

I'd definitely prefer proper snow though. Had a couple of short flurries in my ends earlier, but nothing decent and certainly not enough to stick, particularly given than every single thing outside is sodden from the weeks of rain! Big areas of our lawn/grass in the front and back garden is squelching sponge that squirts muddy water when walked on!! 

So, the dry spell is very welcomed for me.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, SollyOlly said:

Yep, that's me (!). But it'll all be the other way round come Spring/ Summer, when the heat arrives...

Anyway, I'm happy enough with the cold atm, would obviously prefer it to be of the sunny variety but at least we have a reasonably seasonal chill in the air. It is winter, after all...and this is more or less average rather than super-cold...

It should turn sunnier a little later in the week...but take that with a (big) pinch of salt given how inaccurate the sunshine v cloud levels forecasts have been performing!

For now, I'm enjoying something that isn't just 12c with persistent drizzle. These temps now are a little below average in my area, but not by a great deal and nothing notable at all for January...

[Aaron Roberts]

I just want dry weather cold weather. We nearly always get snow if it’s cold for long enough anyway in Yorkshire.

[Barking_Mad]

Colder with some chances of some snow, especially in the north. I know this because the Met long range forecast says so. It could be wrong, but it's more likely than the Hope casting on the model thread

[cyclonic happiness]

I truly hope the GFS is wrong, even if we don't get the cold, what is showing in this morning's run, is storms after storms after storms in FI.

If this were to happen, this country would suffer probably the worst flooding it's seen in a generation.

I know it's only one run, but when it comes to this sort of thing, the GFS seems to always be the first to pick up on a trend.

I'd take anticyclonic gloom, but dry over what that model is showing

[cobbett]

Imbyism is rife in the MOD thread - impossible now to get a quick overview of latest runs so having to do it the long way now !