Top 10 coldest months last 30 years?

[damianslaw]

Just resurrected a thread relating to the cold spell of early Jan 97, a month that produced a notably cold CET at 2.5 by today's standards..

It has made me think what are the coldest top 10 months last 30 years.

Dec 10 will be no 1, followed by Jan 10, but not sure the order thereafter. Suspect the likes of Jan 97, Feb 10, Dec 96 will appear, any month below 3.5 degrees.. any answers?

[Chasbrown]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just resurrected a thread relating to the cold spell of early Jan 97, a month that produced a notably cold CET at 2.5 by today's standards..

It has made me think what are the coldest top 10 months last 30 years.

Dec 10 will be no 1, followed by Jan 10, but not sure the order thereafter. Suspect the likes of Jan 97, Feb 10, Dec 96 will appear, any month below 3.5 degrees.. any answers?

How about December 09?

[ScottSnow]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just resurrected a thread relating to the cold spell of early Jan 97, a month that produced a notably cold CET at 2.5 by today's standards..

It has made me think what are the coldest top 10 months last 30 years.

Dec 10 will be no 1, followed by Jan 10, but not sure the order thereafter. Suspect the likes of Jan 97, Feb 10, Dec 96 will appear, any month below 3.5 degrees.. any answers?

The poster Weather History will probably know.

Ones that stand out to me Feb 94, Dec 95, Feb 96, Feb 01, Dec 09, Jan 10, Feb 10, Jan 13, Mar 13, Feb 21. These aren’t in order of severity.

Feb 05 had a notable spell but I think was warm to start with, same with Feb 06. Feb 09 started cold but ended warm. Feb 12 was very close to being cold but Europe got the worst of it. Feb 18 may be in it but I think the first half was pretty mild.

 

Edited January 4 by ScottSnow

[Metwatch]

In terms of CET least coldest to coldest:

January 2013 and December 2008: 3.5C

December 2001: 3.4C

December 2022: 3.4C

January 2021 and January 2001: 3.2C

February 2018, January 2009, December 2009: 3.1C

February 2010: 2.9C

March 2013: 2.8C

December 1996: 2.7C

February 1996: 2.5C

january 1997: 2.4C

December 1995: 2.1C

January 2010: 1.5C

December 2010: -0.7C

Interestingly last time a winter month had a CET of exactly 3.3C was January 1978. Last time 3.0C was Feb 1981. Last time 2.6C was December 1963.

Edited January 5 by Metwatch

[ScottSnow]

5 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

In terms of CET least coldest to coldest:

January 2013 and December 2008: 3.5C

December 2001: 3.4C

December 2022: 3.4C

January 2021 and January 2001: 3.2C

February 2018, January 2009, December 2009: 3.1C

February 2010: 2.9C

March 2013: 2.8C

December 1996: 2.7C

February 1996: 2.5C

january 1997: 2.4C

December 1995: 2.1C

January 2010: 1.5C

December 2010: -0.7C

Interestingly last time a winter month had a CET of exactly 3.3C was January 1978. Last time 3.0C was Feb 1981. Last time 2.6C was December 1963.

Thank you.

Very interesting reading.

[hillbilly]

There have been 9 months with a Cet less than 3 deg in the last 30 years whereas there were 5 in the 1990s,8 in the 1980s,6 in the 1970s and 9 in the 60s,50s and 1940s.

[damianslaw]

Thanks for the stats, winters 95-96 and 96-97 brought two back to back winters with 2 cold months apiece.

Winter 96-97 2 cold months back to back.

Winters 08-09 and 09-10 did the same..

I'd forgotten how cold Dec 95 was, and Feb 96. 

Also interesting to note how 7 of these months were a December, compared to 6 Januaries and only 3 Februaries, and 1 March. 

 

Edited January 5 by damianslaw

[reef]

Just four sub-3C months since 1997 and they all came in the 28 month period between Dec 2010 and March 2013. 

It shows how rare genuinely cold months are these days.

[SummerShower]

On 05/01/2024 at 00:06, Metwatch said:

In terms of CET least coldest to coldest:

January 2013 and December 2008: 3.5C

December 2001: 3.4C

December 2022: 3.4C

January 2021 and January 2001: 3.2C

February 2018, January 2009, December 2009: 3.1C

February 2010: 2.9C

March 2013: 2.8C

December 1996: 2.7C

February 1996: 2.5C

january 1997: 2.4C

December 1995: 2.1C

January 2010: 1.5C

December 2010: -0.7C

Interestingly last time a winter month had a CET of exactly 3.3C was January 1978. Last time 3.0C was Feb 1981. Last time 2.6C was December 1963.

Feb 2013 was 3.3, using the new system

[Metwatch]

2 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Feb 2013 was 3.3, using the new system

Thanks, I thought I was missing a month, but newest dataset shows it as 3.4C

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, reef said:

Just four sub-3C months since 1997 and they all came in the 28 month period between Dec 2010 and March 2013. 

It shows how rare genuinely cold months are these days.

Yes a poor showing. Dec 22 looked on course to deliver a sub 3 degree month but imploded too quickly.

 

[TheOgre]

The late 00s/early 10s was clearly a notably cold era but does anyone know WHY?

All the winters between 2008 and 2013 had notable cold spells but it wasn’t just the winters either. The summers of 2011 and 2012 were notoriously cool and it was near constantly cold between April 2012 and June 2013.

Then just like that from July 2013 we never saw anything like it again until Winter 2017-18. 

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, TheOgre said:

The late 00s/early 10s was clearly a notably cold era but does anyone know WHY?

All the winters between 2008 and 2013 had notable cold spells but it wasn’t just the winters either. The summers of 2011 and 2012 were notoriously cool and it was near constantly cold between April 2012 and June 2013.

Then just like that from July 2013 we never saw anything like it again until Winter 2017-18. 

I kept a table going on UKWeatherworld of months that were 1971-2000 below average at the time

These figures were before they adjusted them

 

May 2013: 10.4 (-0.9)

Apr 2013: 7.5 (-0.6)

Mar 2013: 2.7 (-3.6)

Feb 2013: 3.2 (-1.0)

Jan 2013: 3.5 (-0.7)

Dec 2012: 4.8 (-0.3)

Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8)

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8)

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8)

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

 

I recall posting on Netweather back in 2004-2006 how rare below average months had become.  Compare the above list against below 

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8)

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

 

The state of  solar cycle at the time would be the prime suspect, it was the deepest for nearly a century but the recent solar minimum was deep as well but we had nothing on that scale of below average months and the deep solar minimum of 1911-14 didn't return in wintry terms the scale of  what we got from 2008-2013.

Interesting one, why did we get a winter like 2009-10, a December like 2010 and a period from April 2012 to May 2013?  

[A Winter's Tale]

Top 30 In Scotland: 

 

Dec 2010 -1.7

Jan 2010 0.2

Dec 1995 0.3

Feb 2010 0.4

Dec 2009 0.5

Jan 2021 0.6

Feb 1994 1.3

Jan 2001 1.3

Mar 2013 1.3

Feb 1996 1.4

Dec 2022 1.6

Feb 2018 1.6

Dec 1996 1.7

Dec 1999 1.9

Feb 2001 1.9

Jan 1995 2.0

Jan 1997 2.0

Jan 2011 2.1

Jan 2018 2.1

Feb 2013 2.2

Feb 2016 2.2

Dec 2008 2.3

Dec 2012 2.3

Mar 2018 2.3

Jan 1994 2.4

Mar 2001 2.4

Dec 2001 2.4

Mar 2006 2.4

Jan 2019 2.4

Jan 2009 2.5

Jan 2015 2.5

Feb 2021 2.5

Interestingly, despite the notable periods of weather which occurred during this months,  Dec 2000, Feb 2009 and Jan 2013 fail to make  the list and Feb 2021 will miss out should this month record a mean of 2.4 or less. 

Edited January 7 by A Winter's Tale

[reef]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I kept a table going on UKWeatherworld of months that were 1971-2000 below average at the time

These figures were before they adjusted them

I recall posting on Netweather back in 2004-2006 how rare below average months had become.  Compare the above list against below 

The state of  solar cycle at the time would be the prime suspect, it was the deepest for nearly a century but the recent solar minimum was deep as well but we had nothing on that scale of below average months and the deep solar minimum of 1911-14 didn't return in wintry terms the scale of  what we got from 2008-2013.

Interesting one, why did we get a winter like 2009-10, a December like 2010 and a period from April 2012 to May 2013?  

I would love to know this also. Similar quirks have happened in the past with warm months/periods. Take for example 1967 - 1976: every single January was above the relevant 30 year average, yet from 1965 - 1979 every April was below average. In the period 1971-1976 only five months were more than 1C above the 30 year average outside of winter and all five were in Summers 1975 and 1976. Those two summers also contained the only 4 months above 17C in the 22 year period from 1960-1982. Why were the only 17C months in two years. By pure chance they should have been spread out more.

Edited January 7 by reef

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I would love to know this also. Similar quirks have happened in the past with warm months/periods. Take for example 1967 - 1976: every single January was above the relevant 30 year average, yet from 1965 - 1979 every April was below average. In the period 1971-1976 only five months were more than 1C above the 30 year average outside of winter and all five were in Summers 1975 and 1976. Those two summers also contained the only 4 months above 17C in the 22 year period from 1960-1982. Why were the only 17C months in two years. By pure chance they should have been spread out more.

At a glance it appears odd but we know that patterns can become stuck. From December 1974 through to August 1976 the dry pattern also a lot of the time was a hot/mild pattern, it was just unusual in its length (bar a few episodes like the cold spring of 1975). When you look at it as just a long spell of warmer than average patterns sticking then it makes more sense. What seems random usually isn't as weird as it seems. I said this a little while back but years and putting numbers to time to calculate its distance causes us to find these patterns that we find strange but to the earth don't mean much. What exactly is a decade to the Earth? Hopefully that makes sense. 

[damianslaw]

Certainly been in a predominantly warm pattern since July 2013, with only the odd blip colder than average month/ season, most notably Dec 2020 - June 2021.

I took note of the unusually southerly jetstream in summer 07, on the back of a run of good summers with northerly jetstream, something kicked in around then, the following winter was very mild though, but it marked an abrupt change.

Winter 88-89 marked a change to very mild / very dry conditions lasting through to Summer 92, there followed a very wet period until Spring 95, followed by very dry and continental for 2 years and from Dec 95 to Jan 97 cold.. a sea change again May 97 to wet and mild... 

The current very mild period of 10 plus years is joining close to the length of the May 97 to Summer 08 spell at 11 years bar the odd blip. 

Edited January 7 by damianslaw

[LetItSnow!]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned was I think January 2021 in Scotland was a very cold month? For them it may rank up there n the past 30 years. Down here it was often chilly but we missed out on the good stuff, bar a strange weather event I remember on the 24th (IIRC) that brought heavy snow to the Capital but where I was living near the Kent/Surrey border it was just cold rain. I felt very cheated! If I had been living where I am now I would have see a snow day. However, we did see snow there come February 7th of that year.

[SqueakheartLW]

On 07/01/2024 at 23:44, damianslaw said:

Certainly been in a predominantly warm pattern since July 2013, with only the odd blip colder than average month/ season, most notably Dec 2020 - June 2021.

I took note of the unusually southerly jetstream in summer 07, on the back of a run of good summers with northerly jetstream, something kicked in around then, the following winter was very mild though, but it marked an abrupt change.

Winter 88-89 marked a change to very mild / very dry conditions lasting through to Summer 92, there followed a very wet period until Spring 95, followed by very dry and continental for 2 years and from Dec 95 to Jan 97 cold.. a sea change again May 97 to wet and mild... 

The current very mild period of 10 plus years is joining close to the length of the May 97 to Summer 08 spell at 11 years bar the odd blip. 

Maybe it's about to come to an end then. Maybe passing solar max and entering into the descending odd phase cycle 25 may bring in an increasingly colder period as we approach the on average coldest period of solar min odd to even and the ascending even cycle 26.

The pattern is also seen with other descending odd into ascending even phases too with cold periods congregating around these times.

[Summer8906]

I was going to suggest January 1985 and 1987, thinking instinctively that they were (just) less than 30 years ago, i.e Jan 1985 will be 30 years ago next year.

Then I did the maths and realised that sadly they're 10 years further back than I thought, and even Feb 1991 doesn't qualify.

Feels like I'm living in the future... I'm clearly getting old

Edited January 21 by Summer8906