2024 Tornado Season

[weatherobsuk]

Glad there's people out there like Freddy, thankfully he was in the right time at the right place.

[WeatherArc]

 

 weatherobsuk Agreed, straight in there helping those people. Hope that girl makes it out ok

[WeatherArc]

Might be trying to recycle

[WeatherArc]

 completely levelled 

 

[WeatherArc]

Hopefully this storm doesnt do anything from now on and remains outflow dominant. Low level shear is very weak but instability is extreme with sbcape being over 5000. 

 

[weatherobsuk]

Funnel Cloud reported near Abilene, TX

[WeatherArc]

Yeah its trying to do it again

[weatherobsuk]

 

[WeatherArc]

Everyone in Abilene needs to be in a safe space

 

 

Edited May 3 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Good news, hopefully the storm now stays outflow dominant

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

@AndrewHamm For your time out for May 6-14th. It does appear like there will be ample opportunities for some good chasing until the 11th before a lot of the moisture gets swept out way into the Gulf of Mexico. 

Edited May 3 by Ben Sainsbury

[AndrewHamm]

 Ben Sainsbury Yes its looking that way! Monday looks big time in Kansas. After that not sure where I'll end up (North Texas, Arkansas, Missouri)? Then moisture gets kicked away. I'm hoping we get a moisture return on the 13th or 14th for one or two more days of chasing, but I guess time will tell! Thanks for all the insight @Ben Sainsbury

[WeatherArc]

Some very, very good news regarding last night. Freddy is a lifesaver

 

[WeatherArc]

Vince's stream 3 hours 46 mins onwards is something else,  reminds me of those tornado vids from the 90s.

[WeatherArc]

We have another enhanced risk today in central Texas, pretty much the exact same scenario as yesterday, weak low level shear, strong instability.

Heres what the spc has to say for the Texas severe area. 

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the dryline and the residual outflow boundary over the South Plains to Low Rolling Plains/Concho Valley regions. Isolated to widely scattered convection possible farther south off the dryline past the Rio Grande, and into strongly heated/CINH- minimized higher terrain of the Serranias del Burro range in northern Coahuila. This activity should move eastward across areas below the Caprock and around the Big Country to Edwards Plateau, with potential for some of the Mexican convection to cross the Rio Grande this evening as well. Supercells -- with large to very large hail and at least isolated potential for tornadoes -- will be more probable in and near the 30%/"enhanced" hail area. Dryline and orographic activity to the south will be an early hail/wind threat. Some of this activity may aggregate into clusters offering mainly strong-severe gusts, with one or two small MCSs possible this evening into the early overnight hours. Despite multiple days of MCS and smaller-scale convective activity to the east and southeast, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture remains not far upstream across south-central TX and into the southern Edwards Plateau, where upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and PW commonly 1-1.5 inches. When advected northwestward amid diurnal heating and beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE should become common. Though low-level flow should not be particularly strong, it will be backed, contributing to elongated hodographs ad around 30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Splitting storms may be common early, offering the greatest hail potential (size and coverage). The damaging-wind threat will be maximized on the mesoscale where organized cold pools can develop, and should extend farther east at greater density than the hail potential this evening into tonight. In the absence of substantial large-scale support, tornado potential will be locally maximized with any supercells that can interact favorably with outflow boundaries or each other.

Large to giant hail in all supercells, tornado chances dependant on either storm mergers or ingesting an outflow boundary, this is exactly happened yesterday with the violent tornado near Hawley. These mergers are completely random though, difficult to say if a tornado threat will materialise at all let alone where.

Looking at the HRRR we have one strong  (this will likely have close to 4,400sb cape to itself) supercell fire in central Texas, despite shear being low there is some curvature in that hodograph, coupled with strong 3cape any cells that undergo interactions will have to be watched.

At around 23z it looks like other cells will attempt to fire around the dominant supercell, this could either drastically increase tornado chances or cause the storm to quickly go outflow dominant.

Some very classic 'Del Rio' hailers just across the border in Mexico, these will have a very low tornado threat but will likely be dropping giant hail.

[WeatherArc]

On this day 25 years ago the most violent tornado ever recorded would touch down close to Amber, Oklahoma and track along a 38 mile track for an hour and 25 mins, directly impacting the towns of Bridge Creek and Newcastle as well as the populated suburb of Moore, south of Oklahoma city, this tornado would produce some of the most extreme damage ever recorded, a national weather service doppler on wheels would record a maximum wind gust of 318 mph, becoming the strongest wind gust ever to be recorded on earth. Sadly this tornado would be responsible for 36 deaths, 583 injuries and 1.8 billion dollars of damage.  A total of 8,132 homes, 1,041 apartments, 260 businesses, eleven public buildings, and seven churches were damaged or destroyed. This was also the first time a tornado emergency was ever issued

"SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 657 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY IN SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA... AT 657 PM CDT...A LARGE TORNADO WAS MOVING ALONG INTERSTATE 44 WEST OF NEWCASTLE. ON ITS PRESENT PATH...THIS LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 715 PM AND 730 PM. PERSONS IN MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM MAY CONTAIN DESTRUCTIVE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...OR LARGER."

 

Some of the damage

The tornado was part of a wider outbreak with many other powerful tornadoes, imo this is likely one of if not the most high end plain outbreaks ever recorded.

Heres some good videos either from or about the event.

(This one below is really good, follows the tornado in real time, second by second)

(32 mins onwards is just insane)

(This was Reeds 6th ever tornado)

 

Edited May 3 by WeatherArc

[Allseasons-Si]

Reed just encountered 2 tornado's and had to get away from one of them,...scary stuff.

 

 

[WeatherArc]

The tornadofest that is 2024 continues

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Touchdown on Vince's stream too.

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Some sort of eye forming on reflectivity where the tor is, just like the tor in Oklahoma a few days ago

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

What is reed doing

[Allseasons-Si]

OMG

[WeatherArc]

Very violent tornado