Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

I will consider this winter a success

Sandbag and dinghy manufacturers certainly will

[KTtom]

59 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Next week looks a fuss about nothing for most on the 0z GFS. A brief initial cold plunge then the Atlantic LP failing to engage the cold troughing to the N and NE.

UKMO looks decent though.

Yes sticking last nights ECM with the last couple of GFS makes you wonder why some want the initial low to miss to the south..it might be the only chance you get to see some snow!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some higher cumulative rainfall totals starting to be shown on the GFS now

[Mark wheeler]

There was more scatter on the 18z mogreps last night.  Most below 0 , seems quite a spread currently.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes sticking last nights ECM with the last couple of GFS makes you wonder why some want the initial low to miss to the south..it might be the only chance you get to see some snow!

Agreed.

All moot really but it’d have been better to get the big snow event, even if there was to be a rapid thaw after. At least we’d see the snow.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

There was more scatter on the 18z mogreps last night.  Most below 0 , seems quite a spread currently.

That shows 48 hours of slightly colder than average upper air temperatures before divergence.

[Battleground Snow]

Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168.

Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

There was more scatter on the 18z mogreps last night.  Most below 0 , seems quite a spread currently.

They’re interesting especially London but also can be seen in Manchester. Two groups for around the 19th. It’s times like this when for me means are not so important. To illustrate what I mean. If you knew a dice was going to land on either 1 or 6 the mean would be 3, yet you knew it would be 1 or 6.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168.

Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.

Where can you get those UKMO Precip charts please? 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Where can you get those UKMO Precip charts please? 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine UKMO 0.1° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est et pays limitrophes)

 

 

[Continental Climate]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168.

Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.

Most should see some snow if that UKMO comes off. At 168 more than likely won't verify but not totally discounting it. Not bad from the gefs either. Quite a cluster keeping it cold. Taking all output so far this morning I think we can be relatively happy. Some obviously won't be as 2010 not being shown. 

[Battleground Snow]

Excluding the gfs and gem OPs I think everything is still very positive this morning.

Gfs Control is bitterly cold at day 11.

Gem control is much better too

Edited January 11 by Battleground Snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168.

Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.

Here’s the GEFS mean pressure anomaly- it’s a continuation of the prevailing winter pattern to date with the jet slamming into the UK

 

Possibly worse than that as LP slows down around the UK

Let’s hope for changes to that prognosis! Modelling possibly overreacting to the signal.

Edited January 11 by Cheshire Freeze

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Excluding the gfs and gem OPd I think everything is still very positive this morning.

Gfs Control is bitterly cold at day 11.

Gem control is much better too

Control from GEM is a beaut, yeah I'm happy so far this morning. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Thats a cold looking gfs mean this morning..hardly gets above -5 throughout

[Continental Climate]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Here’s the GEFS mean pressure anomaly- it’s a continuation of the prevailing winter pattern to date with the jet slamming into the UK

I think heights were always due to weaken around 23rd. Not saying the teleconnections ppl are fortune telling gurus but they have long said this would happen on this date. Renewed blocking end of month into Feb. Just a waiting game I suppose. 

[carinthian]

Morning all, again for consistency I look at charts 24 hours on, currently the ones shown by UKMO. The extended below shows Arctic sourced air in place again over Scandinavia and The British Isles into early next week. So confidence is now high for another drop in temperature. Looks like snow potential to increase as disturbances come  up against this block of cold air. But where is still very much in doubt. The snow prediction models past 48 hours hardly verify. So the most effective snow predictions are produced by the shorter range fine mesh models.  All very tricky  to predict especially for an Oceanic climate like the British Isles. Nevertheless, the UKMO will have all the advanced tools available and only with-in a 48 hours time span  will they have confidence in issuing snow forecasts ( locations /depth ).  At this current time looks like The North of England favourite for a snow event from any disturbances ( hate the phrase shortwaves ) but this still open to changes as mentioned but its going to get cold !

C

Edited January 11 by carinthian

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Thats a cold looking gfs mean this morning..hardly gets above -5 throughout

Yeah I’m not throwing in the towel on next week yet, personally. Not whilst we have a fairly decent UKMO.

A good EC det run would be greatly appreciated though!

Hopefully some part of the UK can see a snowfall from this, whether it be N or S.

 

[terrier]

Ukmo is great again this morning. Cold control from the gem & a cold looking gfs mean. Steady as she goes this morning. Let’s see what the ECM does. But overall another decent set this morning. Winter is certainly just around the corner that’s for sure. ️

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

I think heights were always due to weaken around 23rd. Not saying the teleconnections ppl are fortune telling gurus but they have long said this would happen on this date. Renewed blocking end of month into Feb. Just a waiting game I suppose. 

Yeah I think we’ll almost certainly see a resurgence of blocking into Feb. Certainly looking more likely than not at present.

[Mark wheeler]

All is good in the hood it seems

out of curiosity, I can never find the ensembles on the gem on meteociel . Can someone point me in the right direction please . 

[TillyS]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

You can tell the gfs is still getting the initial Northernly wrong, it adjusted early on,

 

 

 

Erm, except it could well be right!

The signs are there that this is by no means cut and dried. It never is with marginal set ups, as mentioned this time yesterday, but there are too many disconcerting signs, not least the danger of rising upper air temps ahead of the advancing front which is very evident on the GFS but it’s also there on the UKMO. A slackening of the northerly and upper air temp rise at the very point when we don’t need it (for snow):

This may still come off for southern Britain, not least because the boundary edge easterly could intensify the cold, but I’ve seen this kind of set up fizzle out into a damp squib so many times with gradually rising temps and … rain. We might be lucky this time but if we don’t build up expectations too much then we won’t be disappointed. It’s not stellar-looking right now and experience suggests that a week away, it ought to be for chances of great success.

Edited January 11 by TillyS

[TillyS]

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

 Winter is certainly just around the corner that’s for sure. ️

Nothing is sure, never is with the UK winter and it ‘certainly’ isn’t this time.

Cold is pushing down from the north, yes. But for how long, and with what intensity remains very much out with the jury. There are lots of signs that the Atlantic will be pushing back end of next week.

[Jordan S]

Wintry outlook then for next week with low temperatures, frost and some snow in places especially for northern areas and to low ground in some areas..

With a low pressure system moving close to or over the south of the uk towards the end of next week bringing the risk of significant and heavy snow into some southern areas, though most likely scenario takes it mostly over France and channel with light or moderate snow over far southern counties for short time. 

Frequent and sometimes heavy snow showers over some northern areas away from coasts, with one two disturbances likely to be the main culprit for these to form bringing more persistent sleet and snow at times, though not particularly widespread, very cold overnight in places especially ofcourse under snow cover, but some places will see crisp frosty and dry conditions prevailing from this week into much of next week. 

I think longer term post next week, looks more likely to be unsettled in the south and possibly west but generally slightly colder than average in the north with snow chance above normal for the north and east post 20th January as precipitation moves into these areas, but heavy rain returning to our south and west with gales or severe gales possible further west and south for England and Wales as potentially deep lows threaten to make inroads, high pressure over northern latitudes likely continuing on occasion to our north or northeast bringing drier than average weather to eastern and northern areas of England and Scotland and Northern Ireland at first after the 18th before the unsettled weather makes its way here too, the below charts give a general idea but I think could be slightly too progressive with lows around 21st but this could all change obviously. 

Edited January 11 by Jordan S

[Battleground Snow]

11 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

All is good in the hood it seems

out of curiosity, I can never find the ensembles on the gem on meteociel . Can someone point me in the right direction please . 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...