Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance this system could move north to effect southern England.or  As the dust settled now on this.

Seems unlikely now. The vast majority of the EPS, MOGREPS and GEFS keep this system south and the envelope is shrinking rather quickly. I think for us in the south we need to start looking for smaller disturbances within the flow coming down from the north next week. 

[blizzard81]

Ec46 now pushing any cold interest back until the middle of Feb, after next week. 

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance this system could move north to effect southern England.or  As the dust settled now on this.

Unlikely now 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance this system could move north to effect southern England.or  As the dust settled now on this.

Every chance atm..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance this system could move north to effect southern England.or  As the dust settled now on this.

No - the met office (admittedly after the 6z runs), still think it's more likely to affect Southern England.

[blizzard81]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Every chance atm..

Optimistic. 

[North Easterly Breeze]

75 miles further north and I’m building the biggest snowman Essex has ever seen , all is not lost yet

[Continental Climate]

Is the Atlantic going to return on a southerly tracking jet or is it going to barrel through the UK or worse to our north? Cold zonality would be OK but couldn't stand two weeks of warm rain. Hopefully by the end of January we are back in a cold hunt/regime. I think we are all now resigned to this cold snap ending next weekend. That is fine to be honest as the teleconnections ppl said there would be weakening before the next bout of amplification. Hopefully lots of us get snow in the meantime. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

8 hours ago, MJB said:

Oh dear - not this old chestnut again, its the Model discussion thread, not the pre 120h thread.

It's also a good way of looking for trends. I can't see you commenting against charts that are even further a field. ODD 

Then use a BBQ

I wasn't having a go buddy it just baffles me unless its just abit of fun but ppn charts outside t96-120max is just a waste of time because there's zero trends on a miniscule level at that range. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ec46 now pushing any cold interest back until the middle of Feb, after next week. 

I find it quite astonishing that within the space of one week we see the complete inverse in synoptics. It's unreal. Talk about polar opposites, if you excuse the pun. 

[goosey007]

Just now, North Easterly Breeze said:

75 miles further north and I’m building the biggest snowman Essex has ever seen , all is not lost yet

Think this is it … if this misses recent history says that COULD be that for this winter for majority in terms of significant snow …been 2 or 3 really cold weeks over last few years and yielded zero snow in this neck of the woods ….. good luck and congrats to those who get it … Im not bitter honestly

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ec46 now pushing any cold interest back until the middle of Feb, after next week. 

absolutely useless. by the time we get there it'll be March next

[blizzard81]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

absolutely useless. by the time we get there it'll be March next

Try April

[Hammy79]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I find it quite astonishing that within the space of one week we see the complete inverse in synoptics. It's unreal. Talk about polar opposites, if you excuse the pun. 

Is it possible its working on the data the the ops are running with at the moment( where we are seeing a flip back to milder conditions) and not seeing the background signals? 

 

[Ali1977]

Need a SSW , to smash that NH PV to pieces 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Hammy79 said:

Is it possible its working on the data the the ops are running with at the moment( where we are seeing a flip back to milder conditions) and not seeing the background signals? 

 

So many questions aren't there? How could there be such a complete 180 degree flip? Especially as it goes against those background signals. 

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I see some of the regulars have vanished tonight! It's kind of surreal to think we woke every night at 4am to eventually end up with this for dinner. It's more of the same really next week cold or very cold but dry. Must be the longest chase in NW history with little to show for it. We didn't even get frost this week just unpleasantly cold..

I didn't.... 4am I mean

[IDO]

It is beginning to play out now. Next Friday, the pattern has collapsed, and on Sat/Sun, we lose the cold uppers and enter a westerly regime for around 7-8 days on current GEM and GEFS means. That westerly flow has yet to be qualified: zonal, cold zonal, or N/S. That remains the question for the latter third of Jan.

As for further cold interest, the models only go to the 28th, so who knows? But looking at the setup, with blocking East to West over the polar field (Pacific and Siberian mean highs), we do need some of these background signals to kick in and not have the three-week changeable spell we had after the Nov cold. 

The 12z GEFS mean similar to the 0z from D8-16:

Maybe UK N/S split as to wind and rain?

As for next week, it is cold down in the south and probably the best is a few flakes locally for the minority. Scotland should get a good fix. The low from the Azores looks like a miss, but I will give it one more day to edge north before writing it off.

 

[GokouD]

 

Time to take a couple of weeks off I think...The chase is fun, but it's exhausting!

[Hammy79]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

So many questions aren't there? How could there be such a complete 180 degree flip? Especially as it goes against those background signals. 

Id like to think that the computers that churn these charts out are struggling and going with the 'norm'

Excuse my lack of knowledge here, but im interested in knowing how the EC derives its data as- can anyone shed some light?

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So many questions aren't there? How could there be such a complete 180 degree flip? Especially as it goes against those background signals. 

I wonder is it a response in the uptick of zonal winds?

Edited January 12 by Bricriu

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

It is beginning to play out now. Next Friday, the pattern has collapsed, and on Sat/Sun, we lose the cold uppers and enter a westerly regime for around 7-8 days on current GEM and GEFS means. That westerly flow has yet to be qualified: zonal, cold zonal, or N/S. That remains the question for the latter third of Jan.

As for further cold interest, the models only go to the 28th, so who knows? But looking at the setup, with blocking East to West over the polar field (Pacific and Siberian mean highs), we do need some of these background signals to kick in and not have the three-week changeable spell we had after the Nov cold. 

The 12z GEFS mean similar to the 0z from D8-16:

Maybe UK N/S split as to wind and rain?

As for next week, it is cold down in the south and probably the best is a few flakes locally for the minority. Scotland should get a good fix. The low from the Azores looks like a miss, but I will give it one more day to edge north before writing it off.

 

Your post could just be summed up as 'law of sod' unfortunately. 

[Purga]

Ugly - with a screaming jet right over us.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I wonder is it a response in the uptick of zonal winds?

Good point. It certainly coincides with this. 

[IanT]

Just now, Purga said:

Ugly - with a screaming jet right over us.

…but 11 days away!

[tight isobar]

The mother lobe truly regaining her throne!!   Not a good Synoptic at all for immediate/ mid range cold for the uk thereafter.!