Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Wilko999]

4 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

“Don’t worry too much about snow chances. Small features will always pop up at short notice that the models won’t yet see”.

I must have read this comment a thousand times in some form over the last few days. 
 

So what has changed? I know people may be a bit grumpy that the models are firming up on an end to this cold spell. But there seems to have been a complete collapse in excitement for the next week. Are people simply overreacting to Wednesdays low no longer going in the desired direction. Or is there something else?

Snow watch to a bore fest frost watch essentially. Models started to subtly flip a few days ago, some were clinging on but it's normally writing on the wall at that point. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

“Don’t worry too much about snow chances. Small features will always pop up at short notice that the models won’t yet see”.

I must have read this comment a thousand times in some form over the last few days. 
 

So what has changed? I know people may be a bit grumpy that the models are firming up on an end to this cold spell. But there seems to have been a complete collapse in excitement for the next week. Are people simply overreacting to Wednesdays low no longer going in the desired direction. Or is there something else?

We won't! In response to your first line

1 minute ago, Wilko999 said:

Snow watch to a bore fest frost watch essentially. Models started to subtly flip a few days ago, some were clinging on but it's normally writing on the wall at that point. 

It was when that 'bulge' started to appear wasn't it?

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That was always my biggest fear about this particular warming. I think you're right unfortunately. You couldn't make it up could you? 

We needed the major ssw. A displaced  or stretched pv doesn't cut it as it increases  the risk  of a return to zonal.  

[blizzard81]

Just now, Bricriu said:

We needed the major ssw. A displaced  or stretched pv doesn't cut it as it increases  the risk  of a return to zonal.  

I totally agree  

1 minute ago, Garthvader said:

God almighty pass me the rope!

Give people reasons not to pass it to you

[jon_d1983]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

If we look at the GFS strat forecasts I think we can find an answer to where this zonal push within the modelling is coming from.

The Canadian lobe of the sPV appears to get sucked towards Siberia by the stronger SIberian lobe, this occurs 17th-20th, around the time we're seeing modelling flatten the Atlantic pattern out and return the tropical jet northwards. This could perhaps be a response to the minor SSW we've recently seen, perhaps a case of the worst timing ever? (I did muse that a SSW minor or otherwise could potentially disrupt any cold spell a while back).

Once that transition has occurred & based on the current background forcing I see no reason why we wont see high pressure beginning to re-establish itself in a more favourable place for further cold weather outbreaks, Tamara has outlined this far better than I can in a few of her recent posts on this thread. 

Are we away to see it moving towards a full blown ssw?? 

[Purga]

The only good thing about this chart is that cold is beginning to re-establish itself over Scandinavia & a split PV could be forming again.

Other than that it's a case of grin and bear it and above all let's try and enjoy next week !

 

Edited January 12 by Purga

[booferking]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

What I find interesting with the MJO is that when it gets into so cold favourable cold sectors for us, that we just get a mid latitude block or brief cold spell like next week.

Yet, now that the MJO is moving into unfavourable sectors for cold the NAO goes rock solid positive for weeks.

The opposite never seems to occur.

It seems just above zonal wind speed is enough to set the zonal express train kicking in happened last cold spell to back in the start of December everything looked rosy but quickly turned on its head like a flick of a switch.

Ps Maybe it will all switch back tomorrow and we see these wedges that's been talked about yea never know  

[Frigid]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Right let's put this 11 days and only one run etc business to bed.

The pattern collapse starts with lobe closing of the two lobes of vortex middle next week!  around day  5 across all models they are  not getting that  wrong and if anything it  has  accelerated it throughout todays modelling!  it is going to happen and is the 1st domino the rest that follows is the  domino vortex reforming  effect... its a long way back from the below chart and already ec46 is pushing anything of interest to February week 2.. tick tock......

 

Yawn, that really is a hideous chart for cold lovers. Something straight out of a horror film. Shocking to see how it all collapsed in such short notice, few days back it was looking promising for cold to extend to months end. Even the met update had this idea, now all models converging on this idea of a +NAO setup. Sad to see, after such a draining December (pun intended )

A repeat of December 2022, thought I don't expect this spell to be as cold as that. Still, we have a week of cold weather to enjoy so it ain't all that bad. Long range models hinting at a blocked February, so perhaps this spell is just a taster of what's to come. Let's hope. 

[Wold Topper]

To many, 'i told you so' posts tonight, its tedious , the cold hasn't even got here yet and this upcoming week maybe yet a precursor to the bigger picture as winter evolves

[Hammy79]

2 minutes ago, Garthvader said:

God almighty pass me the rope!

Been refraining for commenting on all the moans but this tips me over- pass me the rope? really? A very flippant and not thought out comment at all.

Its weather- it will do what it wants to do, we are literally seeing cold from Sunday evening pour into the UK for at least a week and nothing is set in stone with regard to snow. 

Granted we are not seeing the charts we were with a foot of snow in places but in reality that was  a scenario in the envelope 7/10 days away.  A bit like what we are seeing now with the signaled breakdown- its all scenarios. 

 

Sorry for derailing the thread even more but comments like this get to me, especially with what is going on in the world. 

Its. Just. Weather. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Hammy79 said:

Been refraining for commenting on all the moans but this tips me over- pass me the rope? really? A very flippant and not thought out comment at all.

Its weather- it will do what it wants to do, we are literally seeing cold from Sunday evening pour into the UK for at least a week and nothing is set in stone with regard to snow. 

Granted we are not seeing the charts we were with a foot of snow in places but in reality that was  a scenario in the envelope 7/10 days away.  A bit like what we are seeing now with the signaled breakdown- its all scenarios. 

 

Sorry for derailing the thread even more but comments like this get to me, especially with what is going on in the world. 

Its. Just. Weather. 

He/she could well have been making exactly the same point as you if you think about it. 

[Allseasons-Si]

I just want to refresh everyone's memory here

and why is everyone looking at a breakdown 7+days away when this cold spell hasn't even started yet,7 days is a very long time in meteology and anything is possible up until then

we have a cold and unstable airflow forecast from the north and it is damn right pointless guessing when and where snow will fall because it is one of the hardest weather types to predict and there will be disturbances popping up at very short notice

it's going to be cold,...it's going to be frosty,we have no rain forecast,we get out on a lovely cold crisp walk instead of dreary grey sky's with drizzle keeping us in and feeling depressed

and the models can and will change(not by much) but it will look different in the models come next weekend i garentee that to what we are seeing for next weekend ATM

We have a quick race into phase 6-7 on the MJO plots come the end of the month so edure a brief blast of zonal(IF it does happen) ,then back to another chase beginning of Feb

@MATTWOLVES 3  i am glad that you have your dad's ashes by your side and he will always be by your side pal,% all the best to you my friend

in the meantime enjoy the cold crisp weather

 

 

 

Edited January 12 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Garthvader]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

He/she could well have been making exactly the same point as you if you think about it. 

Correct ......Edited 

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

We needed the major ssw. A displaced  or stretched pv doesn't cut it as it increases  the risk  of a return to zonal.  

How many times do i have to say this. Maybe but it's hard to get a prolonged period of cold even with a major SSW, we're about to get one w/very weak surface response. We just had a reflected wave enhance the Greenland high, w/out we might not even had got it and that was a byproduct of the minor SSW. It was just that we're still in a transient signal period because of the north Pacific signal. A displaced or stretched and zonal link is not a 1 to 1 link, we're not in a zonal set up because of the minor SSW but because of some slight changes in the north American setup combined w/the Alaskan high. 

[damianslaw]

As often the case, the model thread especially in times where perhaps notable cold/ snow prospects are higher than normal, as the case in recent days speculation wise, and the same happens in summer with notable heat.. posts do by and large reflect personal / local perspectives, and as a consequence this thread came become a bit tit for tat, especially if the models back away from personal preferences or away from showing something in your backyard.

All very expected and justified behaviour.

Please think carefully though before posting in this thread where personal preference and local perspectives abound.

Where personal preference is influencing your views, the winter ramp/moan thread is best place to share these.

For local perspective, use the regionals, they are there to share thoughts on your locality and more general views as a whole, where you may well meet other posters with similiar views.

Any discussion about Feb or March at this stage in the winter, use the winter discussion thread, this includes anyone who thinks that's it lets shut up winter for any more chance of cold or snow.

Just sensing this thread will be a minefield of explosions this weekend and will have extra added health warning for those who don't have a calm disposition.

Taking heed of the above will make moderators jobs a lot easier and result in this thread being a pleasant place to be.

Edited January 12 by damianslaw

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

How many times do i have to say this. Maybe but it's hard to get a prolonged period of cold even with a major SSW, we're about to get one w/very weak surface response. We just had a reflected wave enhance the Greenland high, w/out we might not even had got it and that was a byproduct of the minor SSW. It was just that we're still in a transient signal period because of the north Pacific signal. A displaced or stretched and zonal link is not a 1 to 1 link, we're not in a zonal set up because of the minor SSW but because of some slight changes in the north American setup combined w/the Alaskan high. 

Always North America though. These small changes 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Always North America though. These small changes 

Have to agree w/you there it's such a big driver of our weather that's typically a very transient signal.

[Jono E]

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is suggesting that we are likely to see weeks of very unsettled and mild weather in the UK. This is due partly to the cold artic plunge into the USA and the positioning of the UK in a Geographical context. He does hint at potential Greenland blocking in March associated with an uptick in the MJO. 

[Hammy79]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

He/she could well have been making exactly the same point as you if you think about it. 

Okay, thought about it- and even if they are coming from the same angle as me, they have phrased it completely wrong.

[Wold Topper]

2 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is suggesting that we are likely to see weeks of very unsettled and mild weather in the UK. This is due partly to the cold artic plunge into the USA and the positioning of the UK in a Geographical context. He does hint at potential Greenland blocking in March associated with an uptick in the MJO. 

I have a massive sense of de ja vue,  Didn't you post something similar about 6/8hrs ago and the knowledgeable posters on here debunked this theory

[Mutley57]

12 minutes ago, Hammy79 said:

Been refraining for commenting on all the moans but this tips me over- pass me the rope? really? A very flippant and not thought out comment at all.

Its weather- it will do what it wants to do, we are literally seeing cold from Sunday evening pour into the UK for at least a week and nothing is set in stone with regard to snow. 

Granted we are not seeing the charts we were with a foot of snow in places but in reality that was  a scenario in the envelope 7/10 days away.  A bit like what we are seeing now with the signaled breakdown- its all scenarios. 

 

Sorry for derailing the thread even more but comments like this get to me, especially with what is going on in the world. 

Its. Just. Weather. 

Totally correct not a very well thought out comment, it’s weather, does it matter…. It will be what it will be!!!  Just enjoy the journey it sends us on!!!!!

[jgbgt]

41 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Even the cold that has been stuck around Scandi in recent months is just blown away like it's paper

A while to get there, but more likely than not we are back into a zonalfest for the final 7-10 days of the month. Next opportunity for something of interest is in early February perhaps after next week is over and done with? MJO, rising +AAM anomalies, weakening strat winds etc could come into play, but it's anyone's guess at the moment what those drivers will do to the troposphere in 3 weeks time and if the UK will be on the lucky or unlucky side of any blocking.

I mentioned it yesterday but forgetten by now. I believe the cold air outbreak impacting the lower 48 is indirectly to blame. Temperature gradient increases allowing the jetstream over the Atlantic to strengthen, causing further intense storms over north east USA, overiding any blocking over Greenland, and then sending it all into north west Europe / north east Atlantic.

 

Agreed. As we saw amplification in pacific. The only signal that really matter for Uk is the jet. It will override all. 

[Bricriu]

11 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

How many times do i have to say this. Maybe but it's hard to get a prolonged period of cold even with a major SSW, we're about to get one w/very weak surface response. We just had a reflected wave enhance the Greenland high, w/out we might not even had got it and that was a byproduct of the minor SSW. It was just that we're still in a transient signal period because of the north Pacific signal. A displaced or stretched and zonal link is not a 1 to 1 link, we're not in a zonal set up because of the minor SSW but because of some slight changes in the north American setup combined w/the Alaskan high. 

A major one surely increases our chances of getting a sustained  Greenland high rather than a transient one? I appreciate its not a guarantee of anything 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

I have a massive sense of de ja vue,  Didn't you post something similar about 6/8hrs ago and the knowledgeable posters on here debunked this theory

Just Googled Dan Hutchings weather....... Drew a blank. Feel like I've been played . Joking aside, not good trends today at all it has to be said with regards to something more than a 5 day flirt with winter. 

[Jono E]

6 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

I have a massive sense of de ja vue,  Didn't you post something similar about 6/8hrs ago and the knowledgeable posters on here debunked this theory

I’m just passing on information that’s coming out of Boston. It is model related. I’m a coldie myself, I think March will deliver. 

Edited January 12 by Jono E
Spelling error