Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Bricriu said:

A major one surely increases our chances of getting a sustained  Greenland high rather than a transient one? I appreciate its not a guarantee of anything 

It supports wave-breaking of zonal winds, zonally favours it and would favour a longer lasting one w/stronger surface impacts but the reflection guaranteed we would pretty much get one but perhaps more transient.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Jono E said:

I’m just passing on information that’s coming out of Boston. It is model related. I’m a coldie myself, I think March will deliver. 

Cheshire Freeze will agree. March doesn't cut it for me personally. Would rather have some very early warmth. 

Edited January 12 by blizzard81

[offerman]

24 minutes ago, booferking said:

It seems just above zonal wind speed is enough to set the zonal express train kicking in happened last cold spell to back in the start of December everything looked rosy but quickly turned on its head like a flick of a switch.

Ps Maybe it will all switch back tomorrow and we see these wedges that's been talked about yea never know  

Unfortunately, with the chance, this happens all too often again, it always gets water down and longevity shortened

[Wold Topper]

8 minutes ago, Jono E said:

I’m just passing on information that’s coming out of Boston. It is model related. I’m a coldie myself, I think March will deliver. 

I have 'more then a feeling'

[kumquat]

Looking forward to the cold dry weather that is progged up until next weekend. Plenty of little features will pop-up to give snow to lucky places prone to the north west especially up north, Scotland and Northern Ireland / Eire. Also anything sticking out from the East coast anywhere down. All of those NW facing coasts might do OK , Cheshire Gap Streamers and the odd dangler into Pembrokeshire and out the other side into Exmoor and south west peninsulars. Wishbone and troughs. Fun times might pop-up. Also think the northern extent of ppn from the SW low could come increasingly north as a wraparound from N France/ Belgium and hit Kent and the South East. Not ruling out a pasting into the far South coast and moving north more than progged into higher up South West into Cotswolds and as far as the Midlands This is my Pub Run and I'm sticking to it. Covering as many areas as possible and even a little bit into Oxon and Leics.

And of course when NickSussex gets off the plane.

Good luck all! 

Edited January 12 by kumquat

[blizzard81]

If I was to sum things up after today's offerings by the models - The vast majority of coldies are wanting something more than a dry, frosty week. Mainly because of the uneventful (for most) winter so far, on top of the uneventful winters of the last 10 years plus. That's it in a nutshell. 

[Kentspur]

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We won't! In response to your first line

It was when that 'bulge' started to appear wasn't it?

GFS spotted it again the trend finder model

[Bats32]

Just now, Kentspur said:

GFS spotted it again the trend finder model

Write the GFS off at your peril.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

GFS spotted it again the trend finder model

You're right. Very underestimated and makes fools of most on here, even the most respected. 

[Hammy79]

10 minutes ago, Mutley57 said:

Totally correct not a very well thought out comment, it’s weather, does it matter…. It will be what it will be!!!  Just enjoy the journey it sends us on!!!!!

This comment wont be here for long- but agreed, it doesn't matter. Yes it would of been great to have loads of snow, I love it! What we are seeing is a cold spell (not snap- its certainly felt cold since Monday) and from an IMBY I hope to see a Cheshire streamer develop to give us a least a covering. If it doesn't then its okay- im sure there will be other chances. 

In honesty I very nearly got caught up in all the hype again for snow potential and nearly brought some sledges in bulk to flog  Glad i didn't now but thats UK weather, we are a small island and I accepted this from a younger age that it takes a lot for us to get a decent snow event.

Meteorology has always been a passion from young and due to typical factors of life meant that I couldn't pursue it in further education and dropped the whole idea. That was 12 years ago and only this winter I have come back to the community properly. I take my hat off to the member's that signaled this period of cold weather as far out as they did and if anything has give me a resurgence to learn again to be a little help in the future. 

Also in a weird way (as stressful as it is) its helped my mental well being massively. 

This community is unique- and I wouldn't change it for anything (apart from a foot of snow in my back garden) 

Joking aside I think we have much more opportunity this season and its going to be exciting viewing. 

I get disappointment most weekends from watching my football club- but as always,  ill keep on to the end of the road.

Cheers everyone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is suggesting that we are likely to see weeks of very unsettled and mild weather in the UK. This is due partly to the cold artic plunge into the USA and the positioning of the UK in a Geographical context. He does hint at potential Greenland blocking in March associated with an uptick in the MJO. 

None of the knowledgeable folks I've spoken to have backed up this belief at all..Many think blocking looks a good call for February.

Ask yaself this folks!

1. Would you rather believe the big boys and girls on here?

2. Would you rather believe the big boys at one of the words best weather organisations..the met.

Or 3...none of the above and believe Don Hutchings..the stevenage football coach!

[Don]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

If I was to sum things up after today's offerings by the models - The vast majority of coldies are wanting something more than a dry, frosty week. Mainly because of the uneventful (for most) winter so far, on top of the uneventful winters of the last 10 years plus. That's it in a nutshell. 

I have a break from this thread and decide to come back at the wrong time!!  Now, who do I blame?! 

You!!    

Edited January 13 by Don

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

None of the knowledgeable folks I've spoken to have backed up this belief at all..Many think blocking looks a good call for February.

Ask yaself this folks!

1. Would you rather believe the big boys and girls on here?

2. Would you rather believe the big boys at one of the words best weather organisations..the met.

Or 3...none of the above and believe Don Hutchings..the stevenage football coach!

How about an

Option 4

Just wait and see what actually happens

And not worry about model output

And get out and about and live your lives

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I have a break from this thread and decide to come back at the wrong time!!  Now, who do I blame?! 

You!!    

. I would have been offended if you said anybody else Don

 

2 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

How about an

Option 4

Just wait and see what actually happens

And not worry about model output

And get out and about and live your lives

Don't be daft!

[offerman]

15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS spotted it again the trend finder model

Echoed my thoughts, as when all the ensembles recently were pointing to cold prolonged period of weather, the GFS was the first one to start indicating a breakdown and getting earlier and earlier on in the period this has done the same thing on several occasions has been the first one to model or breakdown, and then the others start falling in line with it

[The Enforcer]

Well there are no stinker runs next week:

GEFS:

GEM:

ICON:

ECMWF:

[lassie23]

i thought everyone thought the GFS was rubbish

[Don]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

. I would have been offended if you said anybody else Don

 

You know how it is! 

Anyway, you have until end of Sunday for the outlook to improve!  

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, lassie23 said:

i thought everyone thought the GFS was rubbish

They did the other day

[Nick123]

Really annoys when all the people start coming out with the I told you posts. This cold spell hasn't even started yet. Just wait and see 

[Allseasons-Si]

Please stay on topic or post's are going to be removed

model output discussion in here only,if you respond to an off topic post,...it will get removed

please stick to the forum guidelines

thank you

[lorenzo]

17th is cold peaking in places and the rest looking elsewhere

This view is cool - it is - okay vortex what u got left view.

This is Day 5  - Wednesday - somewhere is pasted already..

From there  - there is not a lot to stop the Atlantic...

.. there isn't an Atlantic >>

Edited January 13 by lorenzo

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

You know how it is! 

Anyway, you have until end of Sunday for the outlook to improve!  

Might have to go check out the solar flare activity lol. End of Sunday.... Nah! The writing is well and truly on the wall now my friend. I could be wrong of course. 

[Bats32]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i thought everyone thought the GFS was rubbish

Not the old hats that watch the models. The 1st to pick out 40c a couple of years ago weeks out. Its good at picking up trends.

[Hammy79]

7 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Not the old hats that watch the models. The 1st to pick out 40c a couple of years ago weeks out. Its good at picking up trends.

And im sure if you gave me 100 darts i'd hit the bullseye at least once..

Anyway the latest GEFS just show the uncertainty- granted theres an upwards trend. - but look at the spread

Roughly Birmingham for reference

Edited January 13 by Hammy79
Grammar