Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Ravelin]

Been snowing pretty much all day here but even at 200m it's not really lying. At 300m the road over the hill begins to get white, but slushy. At 400m, on the forest tracks there's around 7cm or so lying, and it's dry enough for the wind to be able to blow it around in the stronger gusts.

 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

As others have said a grim sort of day temps no higher than 1.4C with biting strong easterly, existing snow bit slushy in places topped up with heavy hail/sleet then proper snow showers whizzing through then dryer spell as fresh snow mets away.

[Klippie]

There's not enough cold air within that low pressure to turn all those nice juicy sliders into snow...just look at them all.

 

[Hawesy]

Waves are better than snow anyway 

[johncam]

 Ricky67 yep as I just posted in MOD thread the back loaded winter is disappearing before our eyes  Been poor here, 1 snow day , no freezing days and up to now 7 air frosts. 

 

[jellybaby1969]

Drove back from Essex today....M6 very little snow only on highest peaks above Shap dusting n patches only..which was mild at 7c 1300. Highest peaks M74 had a dustimg as did hills around A71 where temp was 3c at 1500...met office got the Thursday event totally wrong. It has been a poor winter for many away from those well up north !

[Northernlights]

Insanely cold strong east wind all day with flurries of snow sleet and hail. Top temperature of 3c currently 1c

[jon_d1983]

Absolutely honking night here. Cold rain, windy(easily gusting 40+ Kn), absolutely Baltic with the wind chill. Even the dog who doesn’t care about the weather normally was desperate to get back inside!! Current temp 4°c

 

[Snowandrocks]

A friend who stays at 400m in one of the glens off Strathdon just posted on Facebook to say that they've had a fun journey home in near white out conditions. In trying to get home they had to abandon their pickup in a drift and continue on by Tractor. 

Sounds promising for the Lecht and Glenshee at least! 

[skifreak]

If you look at the bottom of the Snowy Owl run - the double fence line just to the right of the Chairlift drive, that certainly looks encouraging because there was almost no snow there at all. Question is whether its sticking further up the main runs on is it getting scoured.

[Ravelin]

Still snowing here but stubbornly refusing to accumulate anything other than a slushy mess even after dark. A classic case of 'if only' i.e. if only it'd been a degree colder. It's been hovering around 0.5C most of the day, dp just below zero. 

Still, we've done better than most so far this winter, and it's not quite over yet. 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Dull overcast yucky morning temps still hovering around 1C , showery sleet with occasional snowflakes on less strong se winds. Still fair bit snow holding on, mostly all gone lower down in Lairg by the looks of it.

[NUT]

Still a tiny bit drizzly but compared to yesterday a LOT calmer. Barely any wind. Not really expecting it to brigthen too much today at least

[Hawesy]

Dull, drizzly and dreich, 5.5c

I’m ready to raise the white flag and accept another snowless winter.  I think the fact that October-December was so unusually and relentlessly wet over here has made it feel like a long, unpleasant slog with no pay off. Spring, anyone? 

There’s been a real north-south divide. I think if I lived somewhere like Orkney I’d be saying this winter has delivered in style. But central belt southwards, a real disappointment (thus far).

[Hairy Celt]

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

That doesn't make happy reading.

[johncam]

 Hairy Celt ano Read that on CNN twitter account 

[Hairy Celt]

Not quite such a strong wind today but it's a crappy day all the same. A sanding skirting boards type of day!

[Ravelin]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

That doesn't make happy reading

Might make Scotland's winters a bit colder, not as much "modification across warm seas". Not sure I'd want to experience the other possible consequences though. 

Yukky day here too, 2.4C, grey and misty, light drizzle, melting of any lying snow. 8f winter isn't going to arrive properly then yes, spring please. 

Edited February 10 by Ravelin

[Hairy Celt]

 Looks rather more than 'a bit colder' to me! A very short grass-growing season would be one impact. Many crops would be gone unless grown under cover, like Iceland. 

Yes, this is all hypothetical. But it's within the bounds of what's possible, and our resilience to this sort of climate change is limited.

Edited February 10 by Hairy Celt

[Hairy Celt]

Well the wind has gone at last.  Now we're smothered in haar at 1C.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Finally things dried up a tad, slippy with frost this morning. Dull and foggy to the north but bright and crisp to the west

[drm]

 Hairy Celt certainly explains why the Iberian heights have been persistent this winter if the Hadley cell is strengthening from the  Amoc being  under threat of potential collapse,  if I'm reading it right sea ice increases so northern hemisphere sst,s would lower but southern hemisphere goes warmer that would great a very powerful jet stream but I'd imagine it would be much further south, bergens climate is not for off a scottish climate 3.5 c lowering per decade would be akin to present  mountain winter temps being sea level temps if it collapses in future. A southern/middle Scandinavian climate maybe for Scotland?

[drm]

Additional to the above post, what happens to the polar vortex if the Amoc collapses? Does it expand south to lower levels in the hemisphere or stay roughly where it is? Or is it governed by other influences. 

[Klippie]

  Hairy Celt

Oh no...we're all going to die, drowned in our own homes or frozen to death by the impending ice age.

Is this the next thing the climate loonies are latching onto, they really need to give it a rest, Christ they said we'd all be burnt to a crisp twenty years ago...and not much has changed has it.

Don't worry it'll be ok.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Fascinating event this, with the last influence of the snowstorm which has split into multiple cyclonic centres with one swinging back in for the Northwest and West of Scotland GFS and GEM give a good idea definitely potential here for significant accumulations it's mainly across higher routes but I'd say we can't rule out some mixing down to lower levels and Scandinavia and Iceland getting possibly serious amounts especially as these depths are occuring within 1-2 days

As the next influence from an Atlantic cyclone transfers into a Rossby Wave Break by Mid February there could be a risk of flash flooding moving into Scotland as the wave break low pushes in, still a few differentials exactly where the wave break occurs which will influence where the low position occurs

Note the 1st Rossby Wave Break has occured by this timeframe and the low sits between the Mediterranean and Aegean.

2nd Rossby Wave Break mid February sending another wave break cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean. Its interesting as this is causing discrepancies with regards to how strong the associated high pressure develops into Scandinavia 

This brings more big falls of snow into the same areas in Scandinavia and the potential flash flooding within the UK.

During week 3 of February still looking at a bit of drier weather as a ridge and connecting high pressure from Spain through the UK into Greenland and Alaska.

The period from week 3 into week 4 of February has always been the next point of interest for possible wintry conditions it does seem this is more -AO driven initially then we look for the NAO switching more negative plus how fast and at what amplitude the MJO begins moving across the west Hemisphere and Africa at.

With a retrograding blocking high pairing to an increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation and retrograding trough into Scandinavia winter definitely ain't over