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northwestsnow yes good trends from both the ECM and Gfs this morning for pressure to rise steadily, long may they continue we deserve a dry spell after the last 8months, no doubt it won't be a smooth journey.

jamesthemonkeh fine for those further west, Ireland looking good again, those in the east will have to put up with a cool north/north east flow, low cloud etc, I'd rather it was centred 300/400 east. The feed of northerlies is endless here in the east.

I know where I'd like to be for the next week to ten days and that's as far west as possible, a week of cold north northeast winds and top temps of 10c along the east coast with low cloud and patch drizzle at times these sort of patterns can be hard to shift, I'm not jealous of those in the west at all, gets on the phone to his sister in east Ayrshire fancy a weeks visit from your bro

Ravelin Sepa have 69mm recorded at Westhill and 51mm at Inverurie so far for April. Just shows the difference a few miles and elevation make to totals, Aberdeen is at 73mm the easterly component in the early April winds really showing up.

A dry interlude (albiet very brief) between the rain today feels like a victory, Friday morning some may wake to a slushy mess or a little more, certainly snow above 200m for a short period. Roll on Saturday afternoon when the mild air makes its way to us.

A blustery blue skied day in the north east, missing the showers going around elsewhere, not sure that'll be the case tomorrow though, pleasant out of the wind.

Quinach just a pity it looks like a return to the crap by Thursday afternoon, but making the most of today's sun

Hairy Celt I'd agree colder and drier in winter, shorter summers but potentially frequent hot plumes and thundery breakdowns,very short springs and autumn's, whenever the tipping point and collapse of Amoc is due to happens who knows, my guess within the next 50 years. That energy from a quieter Atlantic has to go somewhere will it be a stormier mid southern hemisphere.

Additional to the above post, what happens to the polar vortex if the Amoc collapses? Does it expand south to lower levels in the hemisphere or stay roughly where it is? Or is it governed by other influences.

Hairy Celt certainly explains why the Iberian heights have been persistent this winter if the Hadley cell is strengthening from the Amoc being under threat of potential collapse, if I'm reading it right sea ice increases so northern hemisphere sst,s would lower but southern hemisphere goes warmer that would great a very powerful jet stream but I'd imagine it would be much further south, bergens climate is not for off a scottish climate 3.5 c lowering per decade would be akin to present mountain winter temps being sea level temps if it collapses in future. A southern/middle Scandinavian climate maybe for Scotland?

Norrancei sometimes check weather and radar as netweather sometimes shows stuff not making the ground if it's very light

The toys are certainly being thrown out of the pram in the “mad“ thread this afternoon on what at most was a hill snow event.direction of travel still on track for later

aggy good idea I'd say by Tuesday there will be some agreement on the 4 days to follow like the Golden Shot in the mad thread at the moment, my thoughts are still it's a hill snow event the next round is the main meal this is a pretty poor starter so far the 16th /17th main meal time

I really hope our southern friends get more than what's shown

Has there been an update to the Netweather community layout today?

We seem to be getting good shelter from the mountains today, bar an isolated shower yesterday it's been dry 0.6mm since the 26th January according to the Sepa site, 9c today might be the highest we see for a while.

M1245 looks likely it's missing us altogether cold and dry for many Tuesday onwards winds nne

2 questions for the much more knowledgeable members. Are the models seeing the SSW and feeding it into the outputs for mid mid month as a rapid reponse? 2. if not is there a chance that any response wipes out the upcoming nwp charts we are starting to see for mid month, luck has not been on our side recently with regard SSW effects.

Scottish-Irish Skierwe seem to be getting some good model agreement between the ECM and Gfs about the week after just not this one coming up but blocking is looming large ahead

They seemed to have cheered up in the mad house, the direction of travel is certainly to a cold outcome the 1st attempt looks good for altitude and inland,the 2nd attempt if the block establishes to the nw looks much more potent and long lasting. Might nip out and get some salt tomorrow

@Hairy Celt 12c colder tomorrow will feel nippy for them

@Hairy Celt not sure the Foehn effect was in action here the flow of the wind seems to have been nearly all over sea. Just a very warm air mass transported direct from Northern Africa by the looks of the Earth map

Direct flow from deep south for the west coast less so to the east

Can only assume more of a southerly component to the winds at the north western locations for a foehn effect.

Sadly I don't see much of any of this last band of snow reaching the city with anything bar a flake in the wind, the chase for the next cold spell has already started, a week of normal or slightly above temp wise to get through first