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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

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  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
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EWP scoring for contest year and March  (result is 111.5 mm)

 

In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb).

Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 33.5+5 = 38.5. 

Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 111.5 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each,  so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). 

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg

now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ____EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 4mo  (Ranks, now and after Feb)

 

_01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (15)^__ Jeff C ________________7.07^__30.46 _____21.5 __ 36.53 mm _t4_ (8) ...

_02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ summer18 ___________6.77 __ 29.99 _____23.5 __ 32.68 mm _ 2 _ (2) ...

_03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (12) __ Weather26 ___________7.77 __ 29.90 _____ 19.9 __ 40.13 mm _12_ (16) ...

_04 _ 10 ___129.0 (08) __ DR(S)NO _____________8.58 __ 29.36 _____17.5 __ 39.28 mm_ t9_ (15) ...

_05 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (21) __ J 10 ___________________5.96 __ 28.59 _____ 26.5 __ 36.68 mm _ 6 _ (6) ...

_06 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (08) __ Emmett Garland _____ 8.58 __ 27.07 _____ 17.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 17_ (23) ...

_07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (24) __ Feb1991blizzard______5.36 __ 26.22 _____ 30.5 __ 39.03 mm _ 8 _ (9) ...

_08 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (20) __ snowray ______________6.17 __ 25.71 _____ 24.0 __ 39.28 mm _t9 _ (12) ...

_09 _ 24 ___104.0 (02)__ virtualsphere ________ 9.80 __ 25.52 _______7.5 __ 39.43 mm _ 11 _ (22) ...

_10 _ 23 ___ 95.0 (06) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.18 ___25.35 _____16.5 __ 46.53 mm_ 26 _ (33) ...

_11 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (19)^__stewfox  ______________6.27^__25.06 _____ 23.5 __ 35.48 mm _ 3 _ (4) ...

_12 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (03) __ Polar Gael ____________ 9.58 __ 24.90 _____ 16.4 __ 45.80 mm_ 23 _ (31) ...

_13 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(38.5) __ 36.78 mm _ 7 _ (3) ...

_14 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (35) __ Frigid _________________ 3.12 __ 24.05 _____ 39.5 __ 32.28 mm _ 1_  (1) ...

_15 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (36) __ Don ___________________3.02 __ 23.94 _____39.5 __ 40.28 mm _13 _ (7) ...

_16 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (42) __ godber 1 ______________1.64 __ 23.64 _____48.5 __ 42.03 mm _14 _ (5) ...

(16.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (39.7)___1994-2023 average__2.16 __ 23.49 _____44.2 __44.43 mm _20.0_(12.2) ...

_17 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (22) __ methuselah ___________ 5.76 __ 23.23 _____29.5 __ 47.93 mm _ 27_ (28) ... 

_18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (39) __ February1978 _________ 2.30 __ 22.97 _____43.5 __ 43.53 mm_ 18 _ (11) ...

_19 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (32) __Metwatch ______________ 3.72 __ 22.86 _____35.0 __ 42.67 mm_ 15_ (13) ...

_20 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (28)__I remember Atlantic252__4.65 __22.77 _____33.5 __ 44.93 mm_ 22_ (18) ...

(20.4)(11.4)__65.4 (41.2)__1991-2020 average__1.86 __ 21.95 _____ 46.1 __ 46.38 mm_ 24.4 _(14.9) ...

_21 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (29) __ dancerwithwings _______4.35 __ 21.51 _____34.5 __ 52.28 mm_ t39_ (36) ... 

(21.2)(17.6) _71.5 (36.3) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.88 __ 21.22 _____40.0 __ 48.18 mm_27.3_(22.8) ...

(21.8)(22.7) _78.0 (27) ____ Consensus___________4.75 __ 20.97 _____33.5 __ 49.78 mm_32.5_(30.5) ...

_22 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (13) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 7.57__ 20.75 _____21.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 16_ (t20) ...

_23 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (37) __ jonboy _________________ 2.72 __ 20.94 _____41.5 __ 50.43 mm_ 35 _(t26) ... 

_24 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (30) __ Reef ____________________4.25 __ 20.62 _____34.5 __ 49.18 mm_t30 _ (29) ... 

_25 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (10)^__SteveB _________________ 8.08^__20.26 _____17.5 __ 52.78 mm_ 42 _ (58.) ...

_26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (48) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.34 __ 19.92 _____ 58.5 __ 50.58 mm_ 36 _ (17) ...

_27 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (09) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______8.48 __ 19.51 _____ 17.5 __ 44.43 mm _20_ (t26)  ...   

_28 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (16) __ Midlands Ice Age _______6.97 __ 19.20 _____ 22.5 __ 50.28 mm_ 34_(41) ... 

_29 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (38.5)__ 44.03 mm_ 19_ (14) ...

_30 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (07) __ SLEETY _________________ 9.08 ___18.36 _____16.5 __ 36.53 mm _ t4 _  (10) ...

_31 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (05) __ Stationary Front _______ 9.28 ___18.33 _____16.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (61) ...

_32 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (26) __ Roger J Smith __________ 4.95 __ 17.56 _____32.7 __ 48.85 mm_ 29 _ (29) ...

_33 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (23) __ rwtwm _________________5.56 __ 17.12 _____ 29.5 __ 54.03 mm_ 46 _ (52) ...

_34 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (14) __ weatherforducks ______ 7.47 ___17.03 _____21.5 __ 49.53 mm_ 32 _ (38) ... 

_35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (31) __ Mulzy __________________4.15 __ 16.99 _____ 34.5 __ 54.53 mm_ 47 _ (t46) ...

_36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (33) ___ summer blizzard ______3.52 __ 16.98 _____37.5 __ 55.78 mm _t51 _ (51) ...

_37 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (18)^__seaside60 ______________6.37^__16.00 _____23.5 __ 53.78 mm _t43_ (t54) ...

_38 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (44) __ The PIT _________________1.53 ___15.58 _____51.5 __ 59.03 mm_ 62_  (t48) ...

_39 _ 41 ___ 78.0 (27) __summer8906 ___________4.75 ___14.63 _____33.5 __ 52.28 mm_t39 _(37) ...

_40 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (38)^__davehsug ______________2.32^__ 14.62 _____41.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51_ (43) ...

(40.5)(25.9)_65.5 (38.7) __average of all data ____3.14 __ 14.43 _____46.0 __ 54.88 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8)

_41 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(38.5)__ 46.93 mm _24 _ (19) ...

_42 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(38.5) __ 49.18 mm _t30_ (25) ...

_43 _ 31 ___ -- -- (---) __ moorlander _____________ -- -- __ 13.13 _____ (38.5) __ 48.53 mm_ 28 _ (24) ... 

_44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(38.5)__ 47.03 mm _25_ (t20) ...

_45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (34) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.32 ___11.68 _____39.0 __ 61.75 mm _66 _ (65) ...

_46 _ 42 ___ 60.0 (45) __ daniel* __________________ 1.43 ___11.25 ____ 51.5 __ 62.78 mm_ 67 _ (60) ...

_47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(38.5)__ 58.53 mm_ 61 _ (59) ...

_48 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (04) __ syed2878 ________________ 9.38 ___ 9.87 _____16.5 __ 74.03 mm_ 73 _ (73)  ...

_49 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (42) __ Leo97t ___________________1.63 ___ 9.44 _____51.5 __ 67.78 mm _ 69 _ (67) ...

_50 _(---) __110.0 (01)^^ _B87 _____________________ 9.40^^_9.40 ______ 1.5 __ 44.50 mm_ 21 _ (---) _ first entry ...

_51 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(38.5) __ 50.03 mm _ 33 _ (28) ...

_52 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __  John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (t48) ...

_53 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (40) __ Weather Observer _______2.10 ___ 7.68 _____44.5 __ 67.93 mm _ 70 _ (69) ...

_54 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(38.5) __ 51.78 mm_ 38 _ (32) ...

_55 _ 52  __ --- --- (---) __  Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(38.5) __ 52.28 mm_t39 _ (34) ...

_56 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________ 0.00 ___ 6.25 _____68.5 __ 75.73 mm_ 74 _ (70) ...

_57 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(38.5) __ 50.78 mm_ 37_ (30) ... 

_58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(38.5) __ 61.20 mm_ 65 _ (64) ...

_59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(38.5) __ 53.93 mm_ 45 _ (40) ...

_60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(38.5) __ 53.78 mm_t43 _ (39)  ...

_61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(38.5) __ 59.53 mm _ 63 _ (62) ...

_62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (41) __shillitocettwo ______________1.90 ___ 5.24 _____45.5 ___ 73.13 mm _72 _ (71) ...

_63 _ 73  __ 81.0 (25)^^__Wade ___________________4.56^^__4.96 _____30.5 ___ 72.28 mm_ 71 _ (66) ...

_64 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(38.5) __ 55.18 mm_ 48_ (44)  ...

_65 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_t51_(t49)  ...

_66 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(38.5) __ 55.28 mm_ 49_(45) ...

_67 _ 63  __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(38.5) __ 55.58 mm _ 50_ (t46) ...

_68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (38.5) __ 57.03 mm_ 56 _ (53) ...

_69 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...

_70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46)  __ Neil N ____________________ 0.75 ___ 2.59 _____ 56.5 __ 78.78 mm_ 75 _ (72) ...

t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_t57_ (t54)  ...

t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...

_73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(38.5) __ 66.28 mm_ 68 _ (68) ...

_74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (38.5)__ 60.20 mm_ 64_ (63) ...

_75 _ --- __ 54.0 (47) __ sunny_vale ________________0.24^___0.24 ____ 57.5 ___ 58.50 mm_ 60_ (---)  _ first entry ...

 

note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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