March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 82.4mm 130.2% of the monthly average.

The month will be in our top twenty warmest months and top twenty wettest. Unlikely to hit 100mm though as we seem to be dodging most of the heavier rain.

[Roger J Smith]

We'll probably see 8.1 as running mean tomorrow's report as today looked close to 5.5 C. The 8.2 we're now at is actually 8.15 rounded up so it could even be a very weak 8.1 like 8.05. So while it does look at bit warmer Friday to Sunday, lows are going to remain close to 4 or 5, so even if each day averaged 9, an 8.05 for 28 days only rises to 8.14. So while I would agree 8.2 is equally likely to 8.1, I don't see 8.3 unless it gets to around 14-15 C daytimes on the weekend. 

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Roger J Smith To be fair, UKV isn't all that far off that:

[Don]

On 26/03/2024 at 23:29, WYorksWeather said:

I tend to think that feel is a very different thing to actual temperatures. The memory of a month is probably dominated by the following - sunny days count more, rainy days count less, nights count less than days, sustained warm periods are remembered more than 'less cold' cold patterns. In short, if this month had a similar CET (in the 8.0C range), but with a warm day cool night split, say 13C max and 3C minima. Add in a bit of variation - a cold and snowy late winter blast for a few days in the early part of the month, followed by a distinctly warm and sunny period with a few days widely reaching 16-20C under clear skies and light winds but still fairly cool by night.

Whilst without doubt, 'feel' is different to actual temperatures and always has been, I'm certain some people feel more cold now than they would have done 20 odd years ago, due to their tolerances changing as a result of climate change.   I suppose if you think about it, it's to be expected as Australians for example find their winters to be cold, whereas we would find them warm.  Remember back in the days when BBC forecasters would predict wet and windy weather during winter and then finish by saying, 'at least it will be mild!'?  Weather forums were around in the early noughties and while I certainly remember folk moaning about wet weather, they would not complain about it being cold.

Edited March 28 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Note: I added an alternate scoring report for 8.2 C, following original version. Top ten are considerably different, and a few alterations in ranges 29-35 and 47-51; a few adjusted best combined ranks too.

[Methuselah]

 Roger J Smith : It'll end up what it is, Roger .

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 28th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP around 104 mm (94 mm to 27th, est 10 mm yesterday) and further additions 2-4 mm so our working estimate of 106  mm will remain valid for now. 

CET about 8.09 C, today looks like ending up 8.5, so would stay on 8.1; averages near 9 C for 30-31 would still only drift into 8.2 range. 

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 29th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall 91.6mm 151.2% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.5C +1.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

Looks like it will be back down to 7.4 after today due to a colder night than expected and fog and low cloud which is forecast to persist today.

 

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 30th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

That 8.2 is rounded up from 8.15 (actually total is 244.3, divided by 30 it's only 8.148, but I suspect they have a formula based on mean max and mean min so it's likely a few third decimals above 8.150 to justify rounding up not down. It is so close to the dividing line that any value today below 8.1 could result in an end value of 8.1; minimum looks to be only about 3 C and it did not warm up all that much (10-11), so don't be shocked if it drops to 8.1 as mean could be as low as 7 today.

The EWP is currently just over 105 mm and not much is expected to hit the grid today. Our working estimate of 106 mm looks okay for now. 

106.0 mm would rank 22nd but in any revisions on 5th, 110 mm would rank 14th, as there are a cluster of values 107-109. 

 

[Relativistic]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt

March confirmed at 8.1°C. Ranked 10th warmest.

[Don]

 Relativistic Another mild month but only 0.2C out with the guess.

[Methuselah]

 Don Only 0.1 out for me, Don! 

[Relativistic]

 Don Whilst these SSTs persist it seems guaranteed that the CET will be comfortably above the 61-90 average...

Edited April 1 by Relativistic

[Roger J Smith]

CET-EWP Contest Results including best combined

_ based on 8.1 C and 111.5 mm _

CET ranks are jogged one down for one day late and two for two days late. That is already incorporated into EWP scoring. Table will be adjusted for EWP and best combined on 5 April using "table values" for EWP. 

 

CET

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ EWP rank ____ Best combined info (to 32nd)

 

_ 01 __ 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ ---

_ 02 __ 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________22 _____ 24 _____ 5th best combined

_ 03 __ 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) ______________________ 44 _____ 47 _____t22nd best combined

_ 04 __ 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) _____________ 9 _____ 13 _____ tied best combined 

_ 05 __ 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________49 _____ 54 _____28th best combined

_ 06 __ 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________ ---

_ 07 __ 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) ______________ 6 _____ 13 _____ tied best combined 

_ 08 __ 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) ______________ 8 _____ 16 _____ 3rd best combined

_ 09 __ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 36 _____ 45 _____t17th best combined

_ 10 __ 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) ______________48 _____ 58 _____31st best combined

_ 11 __ 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________24 _____ 35 _____ 7th best combined

_ 12 __ 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________20 _____ 32 _____ 6th best combined 

_ 14 __ 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________ 47 _____ 61

_ 13 __ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________29 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined

_ 15 __ 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________

_ 16 __ 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) __________________ 6 _____ 22 _____ 4th best combined

_ 17 __ 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________30 _____ 47 _____t22nd best combined

_ 18 __ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________21 _____ 39 _____ t9th best combined

_ 19 __ 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________27 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined

_ 20 __ 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ --- 

_ 21 __ 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________25 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined

_ 23 __ 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________19 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined

_ 22 __ 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 28 _____ 50 _____ 24th best combined

_ 24 __ 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________ 33 _____ 57 _____t29th best combined

_ 25 __ 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 12 _____ 38 _____ 8th best combined

_ 25 __ 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 27 _____ 52 _____ = 27th best combined

_ 26 __ 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________13 _____ 39 _____t9th best combined

_ 27 __ 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 35 _____ 62 

_ 28 __ 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 31 _____ 59 _____t32nd best combined

_ 29 __ 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________16 _____ 45 _____t17th best combined

_ 30 __ 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 41 _____ 71

_ 31 __ 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________40 _____ 71 

_ 33 __ 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________18 _____ 51 _____t25th best combined

_ 32 __ 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 14 _____ 46 _____t19th best combined

_ 34 __ 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 34 _____ 68

_ 35 __ 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________ ---

_ 36 __ 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) ______________________ 8 _____ 44 _____t15th best combined

_ 38 __ 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) _________________________ 3 _____ 41 _____11th best combined

_ 37 __ 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________ 5 _____ 42 _____t12th best combined

_ 39 __ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________39 _____ 78

_ 40 __ 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________41.2 ___81.2

_ 40 __ 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 _________________39.7 ___79.7

_ 40 __ 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________43 _____ 83

_ 41 __ 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ___________________ 17 _____ 58 _____t28th best combined

_ 42 __ 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________11 _____ 53 _____27th best combined

_ 43 __ 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 _________________ 36.2 ____79.2 

_ 43 __ 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________ 1 _____ 44 _____t15th best combined

_ 44 __ 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 23 _____ 67

_ 45 __ 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 32 _____ 77

_ 46 __ 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 37 _____ 83

_ 47 __ 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 42 _____ 89

_ 49 __ 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 38 _____ 87

_ 48 __10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) ___________________ 3 _____ 51 _____t25th best combined

_ 50 __ 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________46 _____ 96 

_ 53 __ 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) ______________________ 26 _____ 79 

_ 51 __ 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________45 _____ 96

_(51)__ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ average all data  _________________42.5 ___ 93.5

_ 52 __ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 7 _____ 59 _____t32nd best combined

_ 55 __ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________15 _____ 70

_ 54 __ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ ---

 

Edited April 5 by Roger J Smith

[Addicks Fan 1981]

So I was joint closest, am happy with that outcome.    

[J10]

Excel Mar 2024 CET.xlsx
SummaryMar 2024 Summary.pdf
Summary Overall Mar 2024 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly and Seasonal

Just the 1 correct answer this month, Typhoon John.

3 others 0.1c out, Methuselah, The PIT and Addicks Fan 1981.

Overall

A few changes this month.

 feb1991blizzard leads (3rd last month), Typhoon John 2nd (from 9th) and snowray 3rd (from 10th)

 

[Typhoon John]

Very happy with that result but I'm not enjoying these endlessly mild months.

[Roger J Smith]

I edited a post back on page 8, speculating about 2024's position after three months. As expected, into second place behind 1990 and ahead of 2007: Top ten portion (a longer list can be seen in the original post on page 8).

 

Jan to Mar average (top ten now) and what 2024 needed to tie

Rank ___ YEAR __ JAN _FEB _MAR ____ Average ___ 2024 to tie

_ 01 ____ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _____ 7.37 ________ 9.6

_ 02 ? ___2024 ___ 4.7 _ 7.8 _ 8.1 _____ 6.87 ________ (result) _ edited in on 2nd April

... as 2024 secured 2nd, following ranks are now one greater ...

_ 03 ____ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _____ 6.77 ________ 7.8

_t04 ____ 1998 ___ 5.1 _ 7.2 _ 7.8 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6

_t04 ____ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6

_ 06 ____ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 _____ 6.67 ________ 7.5

_ 07 ____ 1938 ___ 5.7 _ 5.1 _ 9.1 _____ 6.63 ________ 7.4

_t08 ____ 1834 ___ 7.1 _ 5.6 _ 7.1 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3

_t08 ____ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3

_ 10 ____ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _____ 6.57 ________ 7.2

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended up at 110.7 mm, but I will wait until 5 April and appearance of  EWP table value before editing any scoring tables, if that value prevails, B87 (110) ends up in highest scoring level but with a 2d late penalty, virtualsphere (104) stays in first place on points. DR(S)NO (129) would gain a few points also, passing several forecasts in range of 75 to 92 mm. As final value could be anywhere in range of 104 to 118 based on past experience, I will wait for a final value on 5th (Friday) to do any adjusting.

110.7 mm is t-13 with 1812. A top ten finish would require 116.2 mm. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 7.5C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall just missed on the 100mm coming in at 99.7mm 164.5% of the monthly average.

The month came in joint 9th warmest on record and the 10th joint wettest on record.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP table value is 111.5 mm. This will produce a few changes in EWP scoring and tables will be edited later today. I will copy the EWP scoring table as edited and display it in another post in a while; the best combined CET-EWP table will be edited in place. 

B87 had the closest forecast at 110 mm, but with a two-day late penalty, so virtualsphere at second scoring level (9.80) was top score. The result was beneficial to DR(S)NO who gained about two points compared to the provisional scoring from 106 mm.