March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

March CET averages and extremes

__ All CET data now converted to v2.0.1.0

__ The forty-three most recent March CET values 1981-2023 are arranged by warmest (bold type) 16 (not 14 due to ties), middle 13 (italics) and coldest 14 (underlined). Ties in this table are for one decimal values, the CET table has ranks based on second decimals that are not shown there or here.

 

15.2 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)

 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.8 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)

 8.4 ... t4th warmest March (1997, 2012)

 8.3 ... t6th warmest March (1948, 1990)

 8.2 ... t8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)

 8.1 ... 10th warmest March 1734

 8.0 ... 11th warmest March 2022
 

 7.9 ... t12th warmest March 1779, 1780, 1945,  2019

 7.8 ... t16th warmest March 1822, 1981, 1991, 1998

 7.7 ... (ranks and pre-1981 ties no longer in table) 2014

 7.6 ... 1994, 2002 

 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2000, 2003 

 7.3 ... 1999, 2007, 2021 

 7.1 ... 2005, 2009

 7.0 ... 2023

 6.8 ... 2011, 2020 ... warmest 30-year avg (each of 1988-2017, 1989-2018, 1990-2019)

 6.7 ... mean of 1991-2020 ... also mean of 1994-2023, 2001-23

 6.6 ... 1993 and mean of 1981-2010 

 6.5 ... 2004, 2015

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988

 6.2 ... 2010 ... and mean of 1971-2000 

 6.1 ... 2008

 6.0 ... 1982, ... also, the first 30-year average to round off to 6.0, 1966-95

 5.9 ... the first 30-year average to round off to 5.9, 1938-67 (5.947) then it fell back as low as 5.5 1958-87.

 5.8 ... 2016 and mean of 20th century (1901-2000)

 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990

 5.5 ... 1995 ... (1815-1844 average, a slight peak in a long series near 5.5, ending with 1822-51, 5.5 not seen again until 1893-1922)

 5.4 ... mean of all 365 years (1659-2023) _ now 5.37 rounded up

 5.2 ... 2001 and mean of 19th century (1801-1900)

 5.0 ... 1986, 2006, 2018 and mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 4.9 ... (1863-1892 the last 30 yr average to fall below 5.0 and the only one after 1785-1814)

 4.7 ... 1984, 1985 ... (1742-1771 average, a secondary minimum after 4.3; was up to 5.5 1710-39)

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

 4.5 ... 1996  

 4.3 ... average 1672-1701 (4.31) and 1673-1702, 1674-1703 (4.34), lowest 30-year averages of series

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 2013, also 1962 ... coldest March of 20th century (t14 coldest with 1701,1729)

 2.7 ... t12th coldest March (1784, 1892)

 2.5 ... t10th coldest March (1747, 1770)

 2.3 ... 9th coldest March (1837)

 2.1 ... t7th coldest March (1786, 1789)

 2.0 ... t5th coldest March (1667, 1845)

 1.9 ... 4th coldest March (1883) 

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)

 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)

 1.1 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 0.7 ... Mean of the five days 23rd-27th March 2013

-3.7 ... daily record set on 1st (2018) also -2.3 2nd and -1.0 18th

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean since all-time low in 1845 (3rd, 1965)

-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Thursday, 29 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Sunday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline. 

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EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2023. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.3 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

 

177.5 __ maximum 1766-2022 (1947)

160.4 __ maximum 1981-2022 (1981)

136.7 __ 2023 (max since 1981) 

115.1 __ 2018

 95.1 __ 2016

 94.7 __ 2019

 80.6 __ 2017

 76.4 __ 2013

 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 

 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020

 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 

 57.9 __ 2020

 55.5 __ 2014

 51.4 __ 2015

 51.1 __ 2021

 49.7 __ 2022

 30.9 __ 2012

 22.3 __ minimum 1981-2021 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2023) ... 1990 was 22.4

 05.6 __ minimum (1781)  

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You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

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[Bobd29]

Hi 6.9C and 72.5mm for me please.

[Frigid]

Too early to predict, but what I can say is March could well be cooler than the February. The last time this happened was 2013. 

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

March could well be cooler than the February

Yes one of the highest chances yet I think for it to happen for the second time this century.

A list of all times it's happened in the CET area including identical values since 1850:

               February        March

2013      3.4C                 2.8C

1995      6.5C                 5.5C

1980      5.8C                 4.7C

1964      4.5C                 4.3C

1962      4.4C                 2.8C

1958      4.7C                 3.7C

1949      5.7C                 5.1C

1946      5.9C                 5.1C

1937      5.6C                 3.6C

1926      6.8C                 6.3C

1925      5.2C                 4.9C

1918      6.5C                 5.7C

1916      3.8C                 3.3C

1914      6.8C                 6.1C

1908      5.3C                 4.3C

1903      7.1C                 7.1C              (Identical to 1 decimal point)

1899      5.1C                 5.1C              (Identical to 1 decimal point)

1898      4.8C                 4.3C

1892      3.6C                 2.7C

1891      3.9C                 3.8C             (Smallest difference 0.1C)

1887      3.8C                 3.3C

1885      5.8C                 4.5C

1883      5.9C                 1.9C             (Biggest difference with 4.0C)

1878      5.6C                 5.4C

1876      4.8C                 4.5C

1872      6.9C                 6.8C             (Smallest difference 0.1C)

1869      7.5C                 3.8C

1867      6.9C                 3.1C

1856      5.3C                 4.4C

1850      6.4C                 4.7C

 

Happened during 15 years in the 20th century, 14 years in the second half of 19th century, 8 years in the first half of 19th century and so 22 years in all of the 19th century.

 

Also might be interesting to some, March doesn't need to be cold to still be colder than February this year, depending exactly on what February's CET will end, but likely higher than all of the March averages!

Edited February 19 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

April was colder than February in 1903 (6.4 vs 7.1), 1809 (5.2 vs 5.7), 1790 (6.1 vs 6.6), 1739 (6.7 vs 6.8) and equal in 1837 (4.7) and 1713 (5.5). Four of the five years cited before 1903 (exception 1809) can be added to list for a colder march than Feb, as well as (going back from 1850) 1848, 1846, 1833, 1826, 1824, 1817, 1812, 1807, 1797, 1796, 1794, 1793, (1790), 1789, 1786, 1775, 1771, 1770, 1768, 1767, 1762, 1747, 1743, 1741, (1739), 1733, 1732, 1714, (1713), 1702, 1696, 1694, 1693, and 1674. There were also over a dozen cases of equal values (quite a few in the less precise era before 1720) including 1779 (7.9). 

Note a tendency for these older cases to occur in consecutive pairs. 

So the list extends the count above to 22 in 18th century and four in the truncated 17th century (but with less precise values and frequent cases equal, that four is likely closer to eight, so fairly similar in frequency). 

[Frigid]

 Roger J Smith If we get an April similar to 2012/2016/2021 then it could happen this year, the first this century. Obviously depends where February ends up, current projections look to be 8C+ so a high likelihood March will come under and April a low chance but still possible. If we do get an 8C February then it'd be warmer than March 2022 which is quite ridiculous, and close to March 2012 CET. 

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Also might be interesting to some, March doesn't need to be cold to still be colder than February this year, depending exactly on what February's CET will end, but likely higher than all of the March averages!

A rather extreme case this year.. say we get an 8C February, a warm March could still come under it. I'd say the opposite happened in 2013 when February was already cold but March trumped it.  

[Methuselah]

I'll go for 8.2C and 82mm thanks, Roger. 

[WYorksWeather]

With thanks to Roger for the usual introduction, here are the figures in graphical form. 10-year average in cyan, 30-year average in blue, where the average for a given year is the 10-year or 30-year average ending in that year.

Very clear clustering of the warmer months in recent years (albeit without a record break), with a particular absence of cold Marches. Only 2013 was notably cold this century, and before that 1970.

No recent record break, and no recent cold CET. Will it be a 'normal' month, or will we see something crazy happen out of nowhere?

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Will it be a 'normal' month, or will we see something crazy happen out of nowhere?

'Normal' months are pretty hard to achieve now, let alone cold months as any mild spells are so fierce, they can easily cancel out even fairly sustained cold periods!

[LetItSnow!]

Forgot to enter for February so I'm cooked when it comes to winning anything this year... Still, it's fun to play. My preliminary entry will be 7.2 and 90mm please. I may change if a particularly strong signal appears closer to the time. I'm thinking it will be a mixed month, quite wet, some cold spells but offset by mild nights and probably will have some decent anticyclonic spells.

[Leo97t]

6.7c and 60mm

[Summer8906]

7.5 and 78mm, thanks. Somewhat mild but less drastically so than February. Perhaps rather like 2023 for temp minus the initial cold spell, so consistently slightly-above average but rarely drastically so. No 20C but equally very few days below 10C, and a lot of days with 11-13C maxima.

Around 110% of average 1981-2010 rainfall due to a wet first half but hoping the second half will be drier. Coldest nights in the second half and perhaps even a northerly.

Perhaps not unlike April and August 2023, in the sense that both months followed an appallingly wet month, both months were rather poor but both were an improvement on the preceding month. So March I suspect will be similar. Let's face it, it would be remarkable if it was as appallingly bad as the month that immediately preceded it and the March that immediately preceded it.

 

Edited February 22 by Summer8906

[Summer18]

6.7C and 88mm 

[virtualsphere]

6.6C and 104mm please 

[NeilN]

6.1c and 55mm please.

[Typhoon John]

8.1c please

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

9.3C for me. I'm going to go large or go home.

Edited February 24 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Shillitocettwo]

   I now think it's almost inevitable March will go cooler than February.

    I think Winter will find the party belatedly with snow and relative coolth early doors, in fact the CET will be spectacularly down on Feb until late in the month where temps will hit low 20s for Good Friday swinging the month to 7.1 C , above average but around a degree down on a record breaking Feb.

    Quite wet but not as wet as Feb, EWP 66mm

[DR(S)NO]

6.9c and 129mm

thank you please 

[Dancerwithwings]

7.7c & 77mm… cheers

[jonboy]

6.4 and 70mm although I would prefer a warmer and drier month I can't see it happening 

[summer blizzard]

7.3C, 74mm.

High pressure to the east, low to the west. Probably more potential for warmth than cold given that it's rare to have a March cooler than Feb and Feb was mild enough that to be warmer is actually quite warm in March. Not especially dry as we may see an undercut attempt or two.

Edited February 27 by summer blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7.3C and 78mm, much bigger chance of E'ly winds, less of Atlantic

[syed2878]

I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A COOL TO COLD AND WET MARCH SO I'M GOING FOR TEMP 6.8C AND RAINFALL I'M GOING FOR 95MM.  THANK YOU.