March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

7.9C and 72mm please.

[Derecho]

Worth noting the EC control is pretty cold with an easterly setting up through FI, the forecast CETs are:

1) 5.5
2) 3.8
3) 4.0
4) 5.0
5) 7.9
6) 7.0
7) 7.0 

The CET up to this point is 5.8C then it gets cold dropping to 4.2C on the 15th...

8th) 3.8
9) 3.0
10) 3.9
11) 3.9
12) 2.6
13) 1.4
14) 1.7
15) 1.8

GFS has a CET of 5.2C to the 7th but then remains steady only climbing to 5.6C by the 15th.

So not looking particularly mild for this first half. 

Edited February 29 by Derecho

[Kentish Man]

Why not the coldest month of the "winter"? 4.1C thanks

[J10]

7.6c and 85mm

[Derecho]

Ironically the 18z GFS is milder, could go anywhere this month but the safe bet is probably to go in the 7s like many seem to be doing.

[February1978]

Difficult, anything could happen, cold or mild, wet or dry.

On current outputs, the value has to be on the colder and drier side - so 6.8c and 68mm please......... I don't like going cold side though!

[Daniel*]

5.4C and 60mm thanks rather cold and dry cheers. Think easterly winds will dominate. 

[Godber 1]

6.3c and 63mm thanks.

[Metwatch]

6.5C and 76.5mm

I know I say each month is tricky to predict, but with the SSW coming, boy this is even harder. Scandi high should turn it drier after a wet start, but temperatures overall staying near average first 10 days. CET could lower later next week if an easterly develops to bring colder air, but the main signal is for slightly milder S'lies or SE'lies compared to the rest of this remaining week, at least that's what we start off with from the middle of next week. After mid month not much of a clue, but I would think a warmup, perhaps quite wet following the SSW with a west based -NAO for a time. I could also see this month being quite dry, but not a very high chance of that imo, near to slightly wetter than average is the safest bet. Has to be colder than the mildest February we've just endured surely...

 

Edited March 1 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for March 2024

After spring cleaning, a new look for the table. EWP in order now in vertical drop down listing in col 2. 

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) _____EWP (^ late 1day __ ^^ late 2d)

10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO

 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^

 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere

 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael

 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878

 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front

 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder

 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY

 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland

 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 

 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^

 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26

 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow!

 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks

 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^

 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age

 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18

 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox

 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^

 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray

 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10

 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah

 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm

 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard

 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^

 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 

 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906

 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus

 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252

 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 

 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 

 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy

 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch

 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard

 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd

 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 

 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don

 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010

 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy

 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 

 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978

 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023

 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 

 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo

 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020

 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1

 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023 

 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t 

 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT 

 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel*

 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N 

 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^

 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather

 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower

 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only)

 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________

 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023  ________________

 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________

 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________

 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________

_________________________

47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far)

total 55 CET, 49 EWP

Late forecasts will be added to end of 3 Mar, EWP forecast column will be placed in order after all forecasts are in. 

Edited March 2 by Roger J Smith

[JeffC]

4.5C and 90 mm please, apologies for lateness 

, Not enough hours in the day at the moment!

[seaside 60]

Impossible to judge more than ever this month.

Form horse has to be above average.

7.1c
88mm
With no confidence at all.

Thanks

[davehsug]

A late 6.3C and 70mm please.

[SteveB]

A late 6.7c and 94mm please. 

[sunny_vale]

(Late entry apologies)

I'll go for 7.8C and 54mm please  

[stewfox]

Late sorry 7.4c 88mm

Edited March 1 by stewfox

[kold weather]

What is the 61-90 average for March?

Such a tricky month to call as the transition can be quite drastic towards the end of the month, you really do need a fairly solid cold spell at some point in the first 2 weeks otherwise given how warm the waters around us are we will probably cruise into our 26th (I think?) out of 27 above 61-90 month.

[Roger J Smith]

The 1961-1990 average CET is 5.7. Oddly the two warmest years were 1961 (8.2) and 1990 (8.3). The 28 years in between had an average of only 5.5 C.  The third highest was 1981 at 7.8. 

[Roger J Smith]

March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2023 extremes

all data shown now converted to v2.0 _ 1909 lost two record low daily means (-2.9 4th and tied -2,.8 5th) and both of those were increased by almost a full degree in v2.0. 1875 lost a record high to 2014 on 7th with just a small drop from 10.9 to 10.7. On 18th, 1853 maintained a record low despite rising to -1.1 C, the value attained by 2018 in CET legacy, but it also warmed 0,.1 to -1.0, so continued to be a very close second lowest for that date. 1903 lost a record high to 1927 on 22nd, and 1886 replaced tied 1852, 1945 on 23rd. Otherwise, most of the records are the same for years, and within 0.2 for values in most cases. (v2.0 only began to change legacy values in 1853). 

 

--------- (daily record means, 1772-2023) -- (1981-2010 avg) ------ (extreme running means) ---

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ___________ CET date, cum ______ Running CET extreme values

01 Mar ... 10.9 (1878) ... ... -3.7 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.9 (1878.) ... ...-3.7 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.1 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878) ... ... -3.0 (2018.) 
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.8 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.0 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.8 (1845) ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.0 (1801,59) ...-1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786) ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.5 (1947)

06 Mar ... 12.1 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.8 (2014) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.1 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.5 (1948) ... ... -2.6 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.5 (1957) ... ... -2.1 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.8 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.1 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 12.0 (1884) ... ... -1.5 (1845,1867) ..... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.1 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,31,2002).-1.6 (1899) .... . .. 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.2 (1927) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.4 (1886) ... ... .-0.8 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)
26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)

27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  -0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)

28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822) ... ...  -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.2 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)

31 Mar ... 14.4 (2021) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

________________________________________________________________________

^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th. 

** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and running CET values

1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6

2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6

3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6

4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7

5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.747

____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________

 

[B87]

6.9c and 110mm please.

[Wade]

6.0c and 81mm

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 1st

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun March as with December looks to buck the theme of months since September which have started on an anomalously mild note. Alas Dec imploded quickly into mild. Need a cold start to March to manage a near average month I feel, it is a rapidly warming one, by late March, sun is as strong as mid September. 

Edited March 2 by damianslaw

[Derecho]

Yesterday came in with a CET of 3.4C so a rather chilly opening to the month. Turning gradually milder up until the 9th/10th looks a reasonable bet at the moment but it could go either way. I think we are going to go down the mild route with March bringing in yet another CET well above average. The EC 00z control goes for each day... (with monthly mean in brackets)

3rd: 4.1 (3.9)
4th: 4.8 (4.1)
5th: 6.3 (4.6)
6th: 5.9 (4.8)
7th: 7.8 (5.2)
8th: 7.8 (5.5)
9th: 7.7 (5.8)
10th: 8.4 (6.0)
11th: 7.0 (6.1)
12th: 5.1 (6.0)
13th: 2.1 (5.7)
14th: 4.7 (5.7)
15th: 7.1 (5.8)
16th: 8.5 (5.9)
17th: 9.1 (6.1)

Edited March 3 by Derecho

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 2nd

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average