March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 14th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 46.4mm 76.6% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

Temps certainly have rocketed in past few days and will continue to do so with very mild weather forecast. Signal still for cooler or at least average temps latter part of March. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw thing is the op and mean charts are having conflicting information on that.   It also hinges on whatever weather is in the tropics that will affect our CET.   

[Roger J Smith]

EWP already near 50 MM and likely to add 40 at least, so will stay at 90 MM for provisional scoring (already posted). 

CET looks like a repeat of Feb's pattern of edging close to Mar record (9.2 1957) and falling back at end, but a colder trend at 12-16 days on GFS is never very reliable. More confident of a run towards 8.5 or even 9.0 in next ten days. 

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 15th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Metwatch]

In the half way point of the month now and it's pretty safe to say my 6.5C CET entry will be too low. The chance of a finish at 7.0C or below also seems to be next to 0. A CET of 7.5C and below I would give around a 30-40% chance of happening. So a finish in the range of 7.5-8.5C seems most likely, with the chilly start to this month and maybe chillier final few days (if the models are to be believed) will help to stop this March from being another record breaker. More than a 50% chance that it will also be warmer than February's 7.8C. The best attempt yet for March to be colder than February and somehow it still likely won't happen!

The very mild airmass looks to fully move away by next weekend, so the CET will likely be the highest of the month next weekend, reaching between 8.5C to around 9.0C, then a very slow drop down into the end of the month.

EWP continuing to rise as well but not by a huge amount, heading to around the 80-90mm figure by the end of the month. Although the outlook isn't overly wet, tomorrow night and Tuesday night still look to dump quite a bit of rain widely. March will be another wetter than average month, but not excessively wet like last March thankfully.

Edited March 16 by Metwatch

[reef]

It could be another close to record-breaking month that almost doesn't feel worthy - much like February. No exceptional warm (by day) or settled periods, just persistently mild, especially overnight with little cold to even start to balance it out.

[WYorksWeather]

 reef Just checked actually, and there's not as much of a divergence as you might think.

February anomalies were 3.8C for min and 4.1C for max. March so far is 1.9C for min and 1.3C for max.

I think what makes it 'feel' like there is more of an imbalance is that the lack of sun during the day doesn't make it feel as warm as it perhaps should for these temperatures. 12C and thick grey cloud is very different to 12C and sunny.

[WYorksWeather]

On 13/03/2024 at 22:05, Derecho said:

The CET for today should come in at around 11.7C. According to the EC 12z control, it looks very mild from here in the closer term with the odd chilly night bringing in a closer to average daily CET. The 15th may fluctuate a bit depending on the timing of colder air.

13th: 11.7 (6.6)
14th: 10.7 (6.9)
15th: 10.6 (7.1)

Just having a look at these projections so far - we came in at 10.6C, 12.1C, and 11.7C respectively. Not a bad set of projections, though as usual the model has underdone things slightly.

Key I think will be how high we climb by the back end of next week as to whether my guess of 8.4C will be right or not. Would probably have to be near 9C I think by then given the currently predicted cooler final week.

[Roger J Smith]

In this warm spell, one daily CET mean record (12.1 14th, replaces 11.5 1805), and two daily min records (9.4 14th and 9.7th 15) replacing records set in 1884 and 1957. No daily max records, those are now up around 17 C or higher. 

Edited March 16 by Roger J Smith

[Derecho]

The rest of the month according to the 12z control:
 

Should get into the 8s by the 20th and then some colder weather for around the 25th. The EC quickly goes milder again after that but if the cold stays we could be looking at mid 7s. If any cold is brief and it quickly turns milder, mid 8s are possible.

Note the max the EC has for Pershore College is already underestimated by quite a bit for today.

 

Edited March 17 by Derecho

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 16th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, was near 50 MM before yesterday's 7-10 MM likely addition, and 12z GFS looks to be adding 30 give or take, so it's staying in a range close to the 90 MM value for provisional scoring yet. (06z was closer to 95-100). 

CET is likely to peak around 8.5 by Friday, after that I see a rather chilly trend, if it were to average 6 C for last eight days, the 8.5 would fall to 7.9. 

[Dancerwithwings]

 Roger J Smith

In seeing the continuation regarding the model outputs of late

The last quarter of March is looking on the chilly side, with daytime temps in single figures and nighttime temps with frosts….if it continues we could see the CET finishing in the mid 7’s methinks 

I’m guessing the EWP will finish, like you said “ somewhere towards the 90’s “ 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

the 8.5 would fall to 7.9. 

Good news for some! 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.8C +1.1C above average. Rainfall 57.8mm 95.4% of the monthly average.

[johncam]

Can anyone see a month below normal in the foreseeable 

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Don]

 johncam April could be close to or a bit below average, but apart from that, no!

[Summer Sun]

7.7c to the 18th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Perhaps a levelling off by Friday for the rest of the month if current model synoptics verify, may even see a drop at some point, but it could be mild minima which holds things up.

A finish between 7.5 and 8.5 most probable which will mean another notably above average month, possibly exceptionally so if close to 8.5 degrees.

Will we ever see a below average 61-90 month again, no doubt an odd month will turn up out of the blue at some stage.

Edited March 19 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw It definitely isn't a case of never happening again - nothing has changed so dramatically since December 2022 (which was over 1C below 1961-1990) to mean a similar month can't happen.

The key is that essentially you need a month that has more than just a spell of cooler weather (which these days usually ends up close to 1961-1990 average rather than below it), or a brief cold snap that lasts a few days.

For example, I think in April, we would need the wind to spend no more than around a week or so blowing from any direction clockwise from east to south-west, and almost no very warm directions (direct southerlies or slight variations from southerly). You would then need perhaps a week or so of 'average' (flat westerlies or slight north-westerlies), and then a couple of weeks of properly cold wind directions (between N and E). Say you get a week at +3C anomaly, a week at 0C, and the rest at -2C, that gets you your below average month, around 1C below 1961-1990.

The chances of that are very low at the moment. Probably highest in the spring though as there is more likelihood of getting the necessary northerly and easterly type patterns, but even so it is tricky to sustain them for long enough, and the general trend at the moment seems to be that the Atlantic will always get through at some point and deliver some mild south-westerlies, and even if they're wet and not overly mild by day, the high minima generally mean that such spells end up way above average.

So, it could happen any time really, but for the rest of the 2020s, I would expect an average of about one month below 1961-1990 per year. Of course some years will have two, some will have none, and over the longer term I expect it to become rarer still.

 

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 18th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.1C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall at 62.2mm 102.6% of the monthly average.