March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

I think we are going to go down the mild route with March bringing in yet another CET well above average.

I certainly wouldn't bet against that, with the cold opening not amounting to much.

Edited March 3 by Don

[dryfie]

Not CET related, but interesting to note that a small part of the UK experienced a cooler  than average February.  Not far into March, but that same area (Northern Isles) is currently the only one with above average temps.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP opened with about 15 mm on first two days but will only rise slowly according to GFS, largely dry away from southwest England for next ten days, eventually about 25 mm additional by 19th to get a total of about 40 mm. 

[Summer Sun]

4.1c to the 3rd

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Quite a dry week to come with the only widespread ish rain coming today / tonight which may get the EWP close to 20mm. Currently at 13mm first 2 days of the month. Looks like from some point next week it could be turning wetter with lows coming up from the south west carrying a lot of moisture.

The CET on a slow rise forward, but with the nights staying on the cool - near average side nothing dramatic. Probably reaching back closer to average (6C - 6.5C) by this weekend. Some runs such as this morning's GEM want to turn it colder from next week so uncertainty from there on forward.

Edited March 4 by Metwatch

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Metwatch reckon our weather in the tropics will determine what sort of March we have overall on the CET front.  At the moment it's very indian ocean based which is why the month feels quite cool as things stand.   

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 4th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

A slow but steady climb up to something near average looks likely over the next few days I think.

Also a bit of a rarity at the moment - actually cold nights doing the heavy lifting to keep things below average for the first four days. Not something we've seen much of lately! Minima are running at 1.9C below 1961-1990, maxima only 0.9C below.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.4C -0.7C below average. Rainfall 17.3mm 28.5% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

You have perhaps noticed that the CET did not update today, no report for 5th on site; I estimate it at around 4.7 or 4.8 C now with yesterday probably a little above 7 C. Today won't move off that very far as the mins were lower and possibly below -1, the max likely 11 or 12. Keeping an eye on Feb data just in case any revisions creep in, none detected so far. 

[Derecho]

The absence of a CET update may be explained by a pause in the obs in Rothamstad later on yesterday, though the max had probably already been achieved by this point. Anyhow the CET estimates are as follows (monthly means in brackets):

5th: 6.8 (4.8)
6th: 5.7 (4.9)
7th: 6.5 (5.1)
8th: 6.5 (5.3)
9th: 8.3 (5.6)
10th: 7.6 (5.8)
11th: 6.7 (5.9)
12th: 5.6 (5.9)
13th: 4.4 (5.8)
14th: 4.5 (5.7)
15th: 5.2 (5.7)
16th: 8.1 (5.8)
17th: 9.7 (6.0)
18th: 8.7 (6.2)
19th: 9.7 (6.4)
20th: 8.6 (6.5)
21st: 7.3 (6.5)

So according to the 12z EC control, rather mild this weekend, a cooler blip into next week and perhaps milder again after that.

Nothing remarkable temperature wise but above average overall and a CET in the 7s still stands as a reasonable bet at this point.

Edited March 6 by Derecho

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho I think the key is going to be the variation later in the month. There are some very big differences on tonight's GFS 12z stamps at two weeks out. Some with widespread mid teens, some barely even mid single figures.

I still think that if we finish below 1961-1990, I'll eat my hat.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 5th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

 Derecho I suppose one of the questions remain, will March come in under February?

[LetItSnow!]

 Don I have a sneaking suspicion it's possible, even if March ends up mild. If we see a potent warm spell in the second half we could come in or above it but a non-descript month as its panning out could mean we do it. If the SSW caused the worst possible outcome for spring lovers and we saw a cold spell or just generally depressed temperatures than just a rather cooler than average March would already be about 2.5C below February. Fascinating.

[rwtwm]

 Don Another related question. Could the March absolute max come in lower than January's? Still very early days, but if we end up with mean winds East or North of East due to the SSW we'd struggle to hit the 20c needed.

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 6th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Don, if the GFS is anywhere close to accurate on trends, we will be nowhere near 7 C by 23rd, in fact we could be at or below 6.0, it looks relatively cool almost every day other than a few milder days around 15-18. If CET is 6.0 C on 23rd, even a warm 12 C last week would leave the outcome near 7.8, so it would need to turn near-record warm to avoid finishing lower.

EWP is around 19 mm to today, looks to add about 40 mm so a near average 60 mm by 23rd. 

Edited March 7 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.6C -0.6C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Frigid]

 Roger J Smith Shows how exceptional February actually was. I have a feeling we'll end up around average for the CET, unless there's a cold second half or we see another 2022 style warm spell. There's a chance that even April could come in below February's CET, if any blocking we see is positioned north of us. 

Edited March 7 by Frigid

[damianslaw]

A chilly start to March. Average temps for the foreseeable, no appreciable warmth or cold. 

[Don]

12 hours ago, rwtwm said:

Another related question. Could the March absolute max come in lower than January's? Still very early days, but if we end up with mean winds East or North of East due to the SSW we'd struggle to hit the 20c needed.

That would certainly be feasible yes.

[WYorksWeather]

In terms of overall CET, I still think we can't see far enough into late March to predict whether the current relatively benign pattern will persist. All it takes a quick switch to southerlies late on and even four or five days will absolutely rocket the CET, especially with the potential for the 20C isotherm over southern Europe.

The safest bet is probably that the CET will come under February now, as it'd have to be a very warm second half, even if we are at 6C or thereabouts by mid-month. But I'm not losing hope that my guess of 8.4C could still be right. Odds have decreased a bit since modelling now clearly shows a colder (but not very cold) spell around the 12-14th.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 WYorksWeather I think the ECM ensemble mean is the right thing to look at for the next couple of weeks according to the NOAA prognostic discussion, also if we have south westerly winds then our CET won't be too bad.  Have a sinking feeling that I've gone too high with my CET estimate, but not so much with the rain tally.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield stays at 4.6C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 17.5mm 28.9% of average.