March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

No CET update available today, would say it could be 5.2 C after a 6 C average yesterday. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C -0.6C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

Now it's the day time temperatures holding the average back.

[damianslaw]

A gradual warm up in the week ahead likely, mid month CET will probably be very near average.

No clear signal how the second half may pan out, no obvious signs yet for a change to any appreciable warm or cold weather.

 

Edited March 9 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw all hinges on what the MJO does methinks and the MJO is very active currently.    

[Roger J Smith]

Once again no CET update today, current estimate is around 5.3 or 5.4 C (to 8th). GFS says we rise gradually to about 6.5 by around 16th or 17th then fall back into high 5 possibly as it turns quite chilly after that. EWP projections are now closer to 70 mm. 

If we were 5.5 to 6.0 by 25th it would be likely a finish in the 6s as it would require an average of 11.1 C to get from 6.0 to 7.0 in the six days left. 

[Roger J Smith]

Just noting 00z GFS is warmer (considerably) towards 18-25 march and would give a much higher outcome (around 7.5 or even 8 C). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 23.6mm 38.9% of the monthly average.

[Metwatch]

The CET and EWP both going up in the coming week with nothing much in the way of cold in the next 7-10 days. Infact it's looking quite mild as those moisture-laden SW'lies come back. Wednesday to all way up to the weekend look to record maxes into the mid teens in the region, with nights also staying quite mild, so maybe approaching a CET of 7.0C by early next week (around 18th-20th March).

Still very early in the month to know what the final figures will be but I think my 6.5C entry might be on the cold side of things now. We would require a colder final 7-10 days to get back to around average by then which some models do seem to be hinting on but too far out to take much notice of.

Of recent times, March 2004 and 2015 both had a CET of 6.5C and researching those months, 2004 had a chilly first half then milder later, while 2015 stayed dry and near average temperature wise. So a colder snap at the end of this month would maybe bring it close to those other March's for the CET.

EWP overall will very likely end up above the March average of 65mm with it reaching around 50mm by the end of this week, then likely more into the following week. Doesn't look to be an overly wet month like last March though as this week has been fairly dry up until today.

 

Edited March 10 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

Third day with no updates for CET, current estimate is 5.6 or 5.7 C for nine days. Today's average around 7.5 would see that increasing to about 5.9 or 6.0 C. 

[Derecho]

The CET should be up to 5.8C by the 10th I reckon, 7.8C for the 9th and 7.4C for the 10th looking likely figures.

From here it looks like we are going to go through a prolonged very mild period, I've got the following daily means from the EC 12z Control with monthly means in brackets:

11th: 7.7 (6.0)
12th: 8.9 (6.2)
13th: 11.5 (6.6)
14th: 11.4 (7.0)
15th: 12.1 (7.3)
16th: 10.7 (7.5)
17th: 11.7 (7.8)
18th: 9.9 (7.9)
19th: 11.5 (8.1)
20th: 9.1 (8.1)
21st: 9.9 (8.2)
22nd: 10.7 (8.3)
23rd: 7.5 (8.3)
24th: 4.0 (8.1)
25th: 4.6 (8.0)

So yet another exceptionally mild month most likely with those in the high 7s or early 8s looking good.

Worth noting the EC 12z control makes less of a deal out of that colder sector on the 20th then the OP.

[reef]

 Derecho Another top 10 month by the looks. It seems like we can get them without trying these days.

It opens up the possibility of April being colder than February, March and possibly even December. I wouldnt put any money on it though!

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 10th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Derecho Those with a guess in the high 7s and 8s are looking good at the moment . My 9.3C guess would require the warmth to continue right til the end, which is unlikely.

[Metwatch]

14 hours ago, Derecho said:

11th: 7.7 (6.0)
12th: 8.9 (6.2)
13th: 11.5 (6.6)
14th: 11.4 (7.0)
15th: 12.1 (7.3)
16th: 10.7 (7.5)
17th: 11.7 (7.8)
18th: 9.9 (7.9)
19th: 11.5 (8.1)

Crikey, I have sort of underestimated how mild the upcoming week will be and the effects on the running monthly mean!

Many also seem to be underestimating too, and I don't blame them following the ridiculously mild February, but even for mid March the outlook here is consistently 4-5C above average for both day and night! Because we're in mid March many might think this is closer to the average by now as we're used to the excessively mild temperatures, but in reality it still isn't. A colder final 7-10 days would be appriecated and not just to bring the CET down to make it colder than February, but it would be drier as well which is much needed.

Edited March 11 by Metwatch

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.1C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 36.1mm 59.6% of the monthly average.

A rather cold day today will keep limit any rise for today and then it should start to rise quickly from Tuesday.

[damianslaw]

 Derecho That would be a very high rise indeed if it verified, whilst a predominantly mild/ very mild week ahead looks on the cards, I'm not sure the extent of mild will prevail through the last 2 weeks, could be a big switcharound on the cards.

Incidentally there has been a 1 degree rise in CET value 61-90 mean and 91-20 mean, depending on which value you measure against, a 8 finish would be 1.3 degrees above 91-20, appreciably above, but I wouldn't class it as exceptionally high, somewhere in the high 8s, yes agree.

Long way to go still..

Edited March 11 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw Yeah I think there's a bit of wiggle room around how you describe months. If we use 1991-2020, then something like this:

+/- 0.5C or less - near normal

+/- 0.5C to 0.9C - slightly above/below average

+/- 1.0C to 1.4C - above/below average

+/- 1.5C to 1.9C - significantly above/below average

+/- 2.0C or higher - exceptionally above/below average

Months have less variation than weeks, so for weeks you'd probably need to use a wider scale, but any month that is more than 1.5C above is pretty significant, and 2C or more is exceptional in my view.

[Roger J Smith]

Welcome back CET updates, so looking at 12z GFS the CET would increase quite rapidly to around 8.5 C at a peak on 21st and would then fall sharply for five or six days (average only around 4-5 C) to reach 7.6 by 27th. 

EWP has not updated since 7th but two days were basically dry and yesterday around 8 mm additional so we're at about 27  mm now, the projection is quite wet, 80 mm more by 27th, would place us near 110 mm and once again above all but two of our forecasts (B87 at 110, DR(S)NO at 129 mm). 

[damianslaw]

In the winter months Nov - March SW airstreams always bring means easily a couple of degrees above norm, quite often 3-5 degrees thanks to very mild minima namely. What has been a theme of last 20 years has been less of the classic Ridge-trough, warm/cold sector with south westerlies then west/ nw airstreams, instead the azores high appears further north and the jet also locking SW flows in place for 1, 2 sometimes 3-4 weeks non stop hence all these super high CET values. Seems some truth in the azores high being displaced further north, can only think its due to warmer SSTs over tropics and warmer arctic ocean meaning less marked deep temp gradients which allows the polar air to kick the tropical air quickly aside. Polar maritime airstreams are much more fleeting features nowadays. 

Edited March 11 by damianslaw

[Frigid]

Once again, a month that had promise to show some cold weather has been dashed away in favour of mild. Honestly can't put into words how disappointing this season has been, with no promise to be seen in March. On the plus side, my 7.2C prediction looks quite good atm. 

[damianslaw]

 Frigid Still a long way to go, whilst may not bring notable cold, there are still signals for height rises to the NW and a colder end to the month, just in time for Easter!

[reef]

 damianslaw 8.0C puts it in the top 11 in the CET series. It just shows how things have changed when a top 10 month is 'only' 1.4C above the recent 30 year average.

[Derecho]

 damianslaw I think given few Marches have had a CET above 8C, I think it is notable in the context of the whole CET series. We can't just take the 1991-2020 period in isolation and play down the figure.

We may see colder weather to end the month but a figure in the 7s would still be likely. We have an Ssw event to watch out for but that doesn't guarantee cold and with the continent so mild already we would need something sourced from the Arctic.

Given the way this winter has gone and the record breaking global temperatures, persistent mild conditions are a safer bet.

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 11th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.1C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 37.4mm 61.7% of the monthly average.